From April 14 to 16, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his second successful visit to China in less than a year and a half, following November 4, 2022. Germany is the world's third-largest economy and the largest economy in the European Union, and its economy has been in a state of "technical recession" in recent years. The commentary said that if the "historically high inflation rate" is taken into account, the German and EU economies are in a "deep recession" and urgently need to find new economic growth points. In November 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz led a large business delegation to China, the first major Western leader to make an official visit to China since the pandemic. In April 2024, Scholz, as the first leader of a major Western country that year, led a "luxurious" economic and trade delegation to visit China again, and was received a grand and warm reception. China and Germany are the world's second and third largest economies respectively, and their economic and trade ties are inseparable.
On the eve of the visit, the leaders of Germany and France held a video meeting to coordinate their stance on economic and trade relations with China and jointly proposed to achieve a "rebalancing" of economic and trade relations with China. After the meeting, the Elysee Palace pointed out that the leaders of the two countries coordinated their positions on achieving an economic and trade rebalance between Europe and China, reaffirmed the impact of the war in Ukraine on European security, and asked China to play a role. Scholz and Macron stressed the need to "restart the EU's competitiveness, especially to deepen the EU's capital markets" and to build the EU's "financial supermarket", that is, to push the banking and financial community to support economic growth more effectively. Macron is scheduled for a state visit to Germany on May 28 and then co-chairs a joint cabinet meeting with Scholz. The EU media commented that because it is difficult to unify the financial norms of the EU member states, and it is difficult for France and Germany to reach a consensus, the "financial supermarket" can only be an ideal before the implementation of major financial reforms among the EU member states. Due to the disparity in economic strength, the differences between France and Germany on the EU's economic and financial policies are difficult to resolve, and France's position is still that it wants to exercise restraint in Germany.
People in French economic circles believe that Germany, as the largest economy in the European Union, has a great impact on the health of the EU member states. Germany's role in the EU's economic and trade relations with China is crucial. Since the new crown epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the German economy has been in a state of "technical recession", which has also caused the EU economy as a whole to languish, and it is unlikely that there will be a fundamental change in the next few years. People in German economic and trade circles believe that Germany is at a disadvantage in terms of competition with China. The EU criticized China's cheap goods for "flooding" the EU market and launched an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese goods, and the economic and trade war between the two sides was about to break out. The United States has also criticized China's overproduction, especially for providing high subsidies for high-tech products. On December 1, 2021, the European Union proposed the "Global Gateway" initiative until 2027, proposing a total of 300 billion euros of infrastructure projects. European media called it "China's 'One Belt, One Road' hedging plan", proposing so-called transparency, compliance with rules and labor standards, etc., focusing on future development areas such as environment, digital and other fields, with the intention of competing with China for economic influence, and the competition has entered a new stage under the new situation. However, more than two years have passed, due to the lack of funding sources, the difficulty of policy coordination among member states, the serious backlash against energy sanctions against Russia, and the huge cost of aiding Ukraine and purchasing US arms, the "Global Gateway" plan is still on paper.
On July 2, 2023, the EU ambassador to China complained about the lack of substantive progress in economic and trade negotiations with China, and the EU wants to get rid of its economic and trade dependence on China. Germany proposed to ban the export of strategic chemical products to China. The European Commission suspended the ratification process for BITs signed at the end of 2020. The agreement has been negotiated for seven years, with the EU following the US in interrupting the ratification process under the pretext of so-called human rights issues in Xinjiang. In December 2022, China reduced the export of raw materials for amoxicillin and paracetamol due to the need for epidemic prevention.
Germany is the economic leader of the European Union and dominates the EU's economic policy. The EU's triple nature of "partner, competitor, and institutional rival" comes from Germany, and the "de-risking and rebalancing" to reduce economic and trade dependence on China also comes from Germany's China strategy report, but the implementation still depends on need. EU public opinion says that Chancellor Scholz made it clear during his first visit to China in November 2022 that he prefers reconciliation with China rather than confrontation, and the same is true now. In addition to economic cooperation, the EU's countervailing investigations into China's electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, and Germany's hope that China will "help end the Russia-Ukraine conflict" were all listed as the main topics of Scholz's trip. "Two days of economy, one day of politics". It starts with a factory tour and ends with a political discussion. The economy takes precedence over politics, and politics cannot affect the economy, but to "save the economy". China is Germany's largest trading partner. With a trade volume of 253 billion euros in 2023, Germany's relations with China are about the future, the economy, jobs and growth.
In July 2023, the EU proposed a policy of "de-risking" economic and trade relations with China, that is, reducing dependence on Chinese goods, which was endorsed by the German government and enterprises. Scholz's visit is to strive for more benefits for German enterprises in China, demand that China further open its market, and justify the EU's China policy. It is extremely difficult for Scholz to complete the tasks entrusted by the EU, because the automotive and chemical industries, the pillars of Germany's economy, cannot get rid of their dependence on the Chinese market, and their lives are at stake. Scholz's current visit to China, however, has given the outside world the opposite impression, that is, it has lowered the toughness of the EU's China strategy.
On April 12, in response to a reporter's question about the purpose of his visit, Scholz said: "China is indeed an important economic and trade partner. "From the analysis of the schedule of Scholz's visit to China, it is self-evident that Germany attaches importance to the development of economic and trade relations with China, attaches importance to China's super-large market attractiveness, and attaches importance to the broad prospects of relations between the two countries. More than half of the German car market is in China, and the raw materials and technology market for German cars are in China, and Germany cannot afford the damage to the economy caused by the damage to the car industry. According to the report, the German Automotive Manufacturers Association (VDA), which has 650 corporate members, opposes the EU's punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Mueller, the association's president, worries that the trade conflict with China will affect "a lot of jobs". The accompanying auto giants have said they will strengthen cooperation with China, and the Volkswagen Group plans to invest $2.5 billion in Hefei to expand its production and research center. During his visit to Shanghai, Scholz stressed the need to welcome competition, support the opening of Europe's market, and called on China to provide a level playing field.
A person from the German Chancellery pointed out that "the purpose of this visit is not only to strengthen economic and trade relations with China, but also to explain the de-risking and diversification of the EU's economic and trade relations with China", and at the same time acknowledged that "all major international issues are difficult to solve without China's participation", such as the clean energy construction that the EU attaches great importance to and the Ukraine crisis, which are the core topics of the meeting with the Chinese side. Germany is the country that has provided the most military aid to Ukraine after the United States, and Scholz spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before going to China, promising to provide Ukraine with the third "Patriot" missile defense system. During his visit to China, he called on China to play a role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made the same statement, echoing it from afar.
On April 14, Scholz arrived in Chongqing for a three-day visit to China. As Germany's largest economic and trade partner, at a time when the European Union is criticizing China for engaging in so-called unfair economic and trade competition, Scholz led a huge delegation of entrepreneurs to visit the country, indicating to the outside world the economic significance of the visit. In November 2022, Scholz led a large economic and trade delegation attended by almost all big entrepreneurs to visit China, and the second time more than a year later, he led a delegation of the same nature to visit China, and the pragmatic style was revealed. The German media commented that the atmosphere of cooperation during the visit to China was very strong, and Germany's relations with China "basically returned to the Merkel period."
Scholz's first visit to China was only one day, with only a stay in Beijing, and this time it was three days, with stops in three cities, which is unique among foreign visits. Scholz bluntly said that he, China's "old friend", has seen new changes in China. Germany is willing to continue to strengthen bilateral relations with China, deepen bilateral dialogue and cooperation in various fields, and repeatedly emphasize its opposition to decoupling from China. The mantra of Western politicians, "Don't look at what I say, look at what I do," has once again been fully demonstrated.
China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, and all economic indicators have achieved a "good start". International financial institutions generally believe that China remains the largest contributor to global economic growth. This year is a big year for China-EU relations. The Sino-French Year of Culture and Tourism has been carried out smoothly, and the exchanges between the two countries have continued to climax. Chancellor Scholz's visit to China has attracted much attention, Italy has resumed high-level exchanges with China, and major Western European countries have a strong desire to strengthen economic, trade and investment relations with China. Scholz's visit to China ahead of the G7 summit sent a positive political signal to the world, but it also showed a different pattern from that of some politicians in China. The EU, which is in a period of economic downturn, expects to accelerate the economic recovery through the development of relations with China, and the prospects for the development of China-EU relations are brighter.
(The article in this column is the opinion of one family and does not represent the position of this newspaper)
(Editor: Dong Yu)