Will the United States finally abandon Israel?

As Israel's death moves continue to intensify, it is visible to the naked eye that the United States is growing in dissatisfaction and even anger against Israel.

This is also quite normal. From Israel's point of view, its failure to clear Hamas and its defeat by the Iranian-organized Shiite arc are surrounded and beaten - for Israel, which has neither resources nor strategic depth, it will be consumed alive in the long run, and the only hope is to pull the US military out to continue its life.

In this case, Israel's only way is to do the opposite, continue to provoke trouble, and magnify its own crisis - after all, Israel is the cornerstone of US imperialism's hegemony in the Middle East, and Middle East hegemony is the basis of the petrodollar. Therefore, in Israel's view, only in this way can the United States be forced to come to an end.

This logic makes sense, and it can fully explain Israel's various measures in the recent period of disappointment, even at the expense of becoming enemies of the world.

But there is also a problem here: the reason why the United States does not save Israel is not unintentional, but really powerless. From the perspective of the United States, its current national strength is declining day by day, and it is facing a serious challenge from the anti-hegemonic alliance led by China and Russia, and now that its hegemony is in jeopardy, it will plunge its already insufficient resources into the Middle East, and it will inevitably be killed by China and Russia in Eastern Europe and even East Asia -- this will also lead to the disintegration of the hegemony, and even worse!

That's where the joints are. For the US imperialists, Israel is dead when it is finished, and it is also death to save it in person, no matter what. Therefore, when it comes to the specific Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the only way for the United States is to give Israel a sigh of relief through aid and let it stand up to itself in front of it -- although this will not fundamentally solve the problem, it can at least give the United States some buffer time.

But Israel is clearly unwilling, especially the far-right government led by Netaliahu. The conflict between the United States and Israel is becoming more and more obvious.

It is also for this reason that there has recently been a view that it is possible for the United States to abandon Israel.

It seems a little incredible. But in fact, it is not unreasonable: after all, the Israeli government's extreme measures have greatly exacerbated all kinds of political and economic pressure on the United States, and the direct consequence is that Israel's drag effect on the United States is becoming more and more obvious. Now the United States is already very difficult, hegemony is leaking everywhere, and countries around the world are rising up more and more fiercely – and the United States is clearly unable to deal with it. In this case, Israel is still doing this, which is tantamount to putting the United States on the fire pit and roasting.

The situation has decided that the United States really cannot end up in the Middle East now, but it really cannot control the Israeli government. If it continues to make trouble, sooner or later the United States will die – or even worse. In this case, it is better to simply break the wrist of the strong man and throw away the negative asset of Israel - in this way, although the losses are heavy, and even the hegemony in the Middle East is lost, at least you can avoid being dragged to death by it.

To put it bluntly, it is the lesser of two evils. According to this logic, if the collapse of the general trend is really irreversible, and the loss of US imperialist hegemony is really impossible to avoid, then this possibility cannot be ruled out.

However, this is only a possibility. At least until now, not to:

First of all, Israel's blood has not yet been exhausted.

Indeed, Israel is miserable right now – and in the medium to long term, if this trend continues, it will be doomed. But at least in the short term, Israel is still holding on to it - after all, Israel still has air superiority, and the land force, although it has been exported by the Shiite armed forces in various ways, and the myth of the IDF heavenly soldiers has been shattered, but in the final analysis, this is only a failure of the offensive; in terms of defense, at least now the Shiite ground forces have not yet entered Israel itself, and whether the IDF heavenly soldiers do not even have the ability to defend the territory - this is still uncertain.

Of course, Israel's efforts to confront the whole world in order to draw the US military to the end of the world have made the United States very annoyed -- after all, it hopes that Israel can continue to hold on on to itself, and Israel's various acts of death in order to pull itself down have brought tremendous pressure to the United States while greatly compressing its own strategic living space. But in any case, at least for now, Israel has not been pushed back by the Shiite strategy – that is, there is no risk of collapse in the short term. Under such circumstances, no matter how annoyed the United States is with Israel, it will not say that it has given up on its strategy.

Secondly, the United States has not exhausted its means against Israel internally. Israel is now governed by Netaliahu's far-right government. These people are using all means to pull the United States into the water – which is of course a great threat to the national interests of the United States. But the problem is that Netaliahu is not irreplaceable either. There are also moderates within Israeli politics, and the doves are not as extreme in dealing with the problem as Netta and are willing to cooperate with US policy to a considerable extent; on the basis of public opinion, as the Israeli army is mired in deep trouble, the mass base of the far right is also crumbling; more and more Israelis are fed up with the war and have given up their support for Netta's government and are on their opposite side. And Israel is not the kind of North Korea that cannot be poured with a needle, and the United States can still exert influence on Israeli politics.

All these factors determine that as the situation deteriorates, Neta's situation is becoming more and more difficult - although this means that he will become more and more frenzied and will do everything to pull the US army into the water, but it also means that his power and position are becoming more and more precarious, and more and more people and forces want to take him down. So now it is a game of two forces, as long as the opposition forces in the United States and Israel can pull down Netta's far-right government before the situation collapses completely, then the situation will be eased. When Israel stops killing itself and returns to a conservative style of play, supplemented by US assistance, the situation will not be reversed, but at least in the short term, there is still hope that the United States will not have to fall into the strategic dilemma of ending up or abandoning Israel, at least in the short term.

Finally, the pro-Israel forces within the United States remain strong. As we all know, the Jewish power in the United States is very strong, so the power in Israel is also very strong. Not to mention the Jews themselves, in terms of mass base, Christian evangelicals, who make up nearly half of the population, are also moral supporters of Israel (which is why Trump supported Israel in the first place – his base is Christian evangelicals).

Of course, as the US economy, built on financial hegemony, is in trouble, American Jewish capital itself is beginning to panic – fearing that it will be liquidated next, so many Jewish elites have gradually cut off from Israel. But not to mention the fact that such a cut is difficult to achieve cleanly, the Zionist gang outside of the capitalist elite is also a force to be reckoned with, and similarly, although the mainstream public opinion in the West has begun to attack Israel and many people have reversed their positions, the basic base of Christian evangelicalism is still strong – at least for Trump and the Republican Party.

With this part of the internal constraints, it is difficult for the United States to say that it will give up Israel - even if one day Israel really dies to the point that the United States has to choose the lesser of two evils, and has to choose between giving up Israel on its own initiative or giving Israel a funeral, these internal pro-Israel forces are also an important bargaining chip to prevent it from giving up Israel - after all, giving up Israel is originally a last resort if the hegemony really cannot be maintained, and this last resort is based on safeguarding national interests- Or in other words, let the country lose relatively little. But if this exacerbates one's own internal division and even confrontation, it will outweigh the losses.

All in all, it is impossible to say that the United States has abandoned Israel – at least prematurely. Of course, the current conflict between the United States and Israel is very serious, the loosening of Western public opinion, and the separation of American Jewish capital and elites from Israel do exist, but this can only be understood as a kind of precautionary measure, and reserve a foreshadowing for the strategic adjustment after the hegemony is not guaranteed in the future, but at least until now, the United States has not collapsed its hegemony -- at least subjectively, the United States has not given up its efforts to maintain hegemony, and in this case, at least at this stage, it is impossible for the United States to give up Israel.

Of course, it is true that the United States cannot give up on Israel, but it is also true that the United States is very annoyed by the Israeli government. In particular, Netaliahu's efforts to pull the US military into the water not only undermined the strategic policy of the US military not to end, but also allowed Israel to carry the tactical plan of the destruction as much as possible. Therefore, the United States will definitely increase its efforts to bring down the Netaliahu government. But abandoning the current Israeli government and abandoning Israel as a nation are two completely different things and should not be confused.

However, this is only temporary. As we have already said, the United States will not abandon Israel on the basis that the United States will maintain its global hegemony, and Israel will protect it when the United States is still a US imperialist. But now the challenge to US imperialist hegemony is global -- with the exception of the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia, it is under tremendous strategic pressure, and the strength of the United States is obviously very difficult to deal with.

What does this mean? This means that there is actually a ceiling on the protection of Israel by the United States. If the two strategic directions of Eastern Europe and East Asia are defeated and lost in order to protect Israel, the result will be that the hegemony will not be guaranteed – and it may even lose even worse as a whole. If this is the case, then Israel and the United States may not be able to protect it.

In short, the US imperialists need Israel, but the US does not. If the loss of global hegemony is a foregone conclusion, US imperialism must return to the United States – just like the empire on which the sun never sets when it returns to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and then the United States will not necessarily protect Israel – not only will it not be protected, but it may even be sacrificed in exchange for ending up as dignified as possible like Britain.

Why do you say that? Because it is not so easy for US imperialism to want to return to the United States. After all, the stalls are too big and there are too many holes, and if they are withdrawn at once, the internal contradictions cannot be suppressed, and it is very likely that a civil war and a split will break out - to put it simply, if the US imperialists cannot keep it, the United States may not be able to keep it either.

And if we want to end up with dignity, at least retain the United States as a national entity, and even retain some of the remnants of hegemony, and remain the strongest pole of a multipolar world -- at least one of the two strongest poles, then it is necessary to complete the internal reshuffle, and some vested interests within the United States must be taken out to sacrifice to heaven -- not only to serve as a moral scapegoat to bear the responsibility for the disintegration of the hegemony, but also to use their wealth to fill the hole caused by the disintegration of the hegemony and envelop the people. And looking at the American ruling class, the most suitable sacrifice is none other than the Jews!

This is the logic that if the United States wants to follow the example of Britain and take the initiative to end its hegemony with dignity, it must sacrifice Israel. When the United States still wants to be a US imperialist, Israel will be a must-sell product; when the United States is no longer a US imperialist, and it wants to settle down safely and keep the United States as a national entity, Israel will be a must-sell! Whether it is guaranteed or not is all about the strategic positioning of the United States itself!

Of course, when it comes to the United States taking the initiative to give up global hegemony, many people will subconsciously feel that it is impossible. Not necessarily. When the situation is forced to a certain point, taking the initiative to end the hegemony in exchange for a decent ending is the relatively least bad choice for the hegemon - it is by virtue of this knowledge of the times that the British Empire has achieved a decent end, and in the new global hegemony system led by US imperialism, it has obtained the treatment of the first great protector.

So, is it possible for the United States to take the initiative to end its global hegemony? Or, under what conditions, will the United States follow the example of the British Empire and take the initiative to end its hegemony? Pay attention to the WeChat public account: Yun Shi, Yun Shijun will continue to interpret for you in the next section.

This article is chapter 2417 of the Marble Overseas Wind and Cloud series. If you like it, please use WeChat to search for the public account: Yunshi, and continue to watch all the Yunshi overseas series of articles.