ZHIKUYAOLAN
Editor's note
China's economy got off to a good start in the first quarter, with consumption still the key engine driving economic growth. Recently, a number of think tanks released a consumer confidence index report showing that the mainland's economic operation is stable and improving, and consumer confidence has rebounded as a whole. At the same time, in the report released by think tanks, it reflects that there have been some new changes in the mainland consumer market, showing some new consumption trends. Consumption is prosperous, the economy is prosperous, and consumption is economic. The mainland's consumer market still has huge potential, and it is necessary to give full play to the lasting driving force of consumption on the economy.
The steady improvement of the economy has helped consumer confidence to recover
Reading tip: The economy is picking up and consumer confidence is optimistic. Research by a number of think tanks has shown that the steady and positive development of the economy has boosted consumer confidence. Through the analysis of the two core indices and eight sub-indices in the Shanghai Consumer Confidence Index, the Applied Statistics Research Center of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics believes that the evaluation of Shanghai consumers' evaluation of the current situation of Shanghai's economic development and their expectations for the future have rebounded to a certain extent, and Shanghai's economic operation has been stable and improving, and the overall trend is improving. Through the analysis of various sub-indices of consumer confidence in the mainland, universities such as the Capital University of Economics and Business believe that the general consumer confidence index rebounded in the first quarter, which is in the optimistic range, but the recovery rate is not the same in different areas. NielsenIQ's survey of Chinese consumers found that there have been some positive changes in the consumer sector and have contributed to the recovery of consumer confidence.
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Applied Statistics Research Center and other institutions:
Shanghai's consumer confidence index rebounded in the first quarter
According to the "Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai Social Economic Index Series in the First Quarter of 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") jointly released by the Applied Statistics Research Center of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and the Shanghai Social Survey Research Center on April 10, the Shanghai Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in the first quarter of 2024, up 3.2 points from the previous quarter and down 7.0 points from the same period last year. Among them, the consumer evaluation index was 103.6 points, an increase of 2.4 points from the previous quarter and a slight decrease of 2.3 points year-on-year. The consumer expectation index was 106.2 points, up 4.0 points month-on-month and down 11.7 points year-on-year.
According to the report, the main indicators in the first quarter rose month-on-month, but still decreased year-on-year, indicating that Shanghai consumers' evaluation of Shanghai's economic development status and expectations for the future have rebounded to a certain extent compared with the previous quarter. Shanghai's economic operation in the first part of this quarter was stable and improving, and the overall trend was warming.
According to the classification of the consumer evaluation index in the report, Shanghai's current income evaluation index is 108.4 points, an increase of 5.3 points from the previous quarter and 7.5 points from the same period last year, which means that with the steady development of the economy in the first quarter, consumers' satisfaction with the current income situation has also improved. The employment evaluation index was 102.9 points, returning to the neutral value of more than 100 points, up 7.2 points month-on-month and down 3.2 points year-on-year, which is at a high level since 2019, reflecting that Shanghai's active policies to promote employment have achieved remarkable results.
For the reasons why the Shanghai consumer confidence index rebounded to a certain extent month-on-month and decreased year-on-year in the first quarter, the director of the Shangcai Branch of the Shanghai Social Survey Research Center, Professor Xu Guoxiang, director of the Applied Statistics Research Center of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, believes that first, the two sessions of the National People's Congress have conveyed to society the determination and signal of stable and sound economic development and boosted consumer confidence; second, in the third quarter of last year, the major indices suddenly fell sharply, forming a phased bottom, and in the past two quarters there has been a slight increase; third, the uncertainty of the external environment has had a certain impact on Shanghai's economy.
Capital University of Economics and Business and other universities:
The overall consumer confidence index on the mainland is in optimistic territory
The "Cross-Strait, Hong Kong and Macao Consumer Confidence Index" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") for the first quarter of 2024, jointly surveyed and compiled by the Capital University of Economics and Business, the City University of Hong Kong, the Macau University of Science and Technology and Fu Jen University in Taiwan, was released on April 8. According to the report, the overall consumer confidence index in the mainland rose by 3.5 month-on-month to 105.8. During the same period, the consumer confidence index in Hong Kong was 88.0, up 1.4 month-on-month, Macau's consumer confidence index was 95.0, down 6.7 month-on-month, and Taiwan's consumer confidence index was 92.6, up 0.2 month-on-month.
The economy is picking up and consumer confidence is optimistic. In the first quarter of this year, the mainland adhered to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implemented the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and continued to recover economic operation. Industrial production has rebounded for the better, the cultivation of new productive forces has been accelerated, the employment situation has been generally stable, the consumer market has maintained a steady recovery, consumer prices have turned from falling to rising year-on-year, the quality of development has continued to improve, and the economic operation has continued to pick up and improve. Overall, the overall consumer confidence index on the mainland is at an optimistic level.
Judging from the sub-indices in the report, in the first quarter, the economic development confidence sub-index was 127.4, down 6.9 year-on-year and up 2.9 month-on-month, indicating that consumers' confidence in economic development was at an optimistic level. The employment confidence sub-index was 113.3, down 7.0 year-on-year and up 4.8 month-on-month. The Mainland Consumer Price Confidence Sub-index was 86.8, up 2.4 year-on-year and 3.5 month-on-month. The sub-index of mainland consumers' confidence in life was 123.2, down 2.5 year-on-year and up 1.8 month-on-month, indicating that mainland consumers are positive and optimistic about their material life. The mainland consumer confidence index was 90.6, down 5.5 year-on-year and up 2.5 month-on-month. The consumer investment confidence sub-index was 93.3, down 4.4 year-on-year and up 5.4 month-on-month.
The report reflects that in the first quarter, mainland consumers' confidence in economic development, employment and life remained in the optimistic range. The sub-indices of price confidence increased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, while the sub-indices of economic development confidence, employment confidence, life confidence, housing purchase confidence and investment confidence all decreased year-on-year and increased to varying degrees month-on-month.
NielsenIQ:
Chinese consumer confidence has rebounded
NielsenIQ (NIQ) released its 2024 China Consumer Outlook (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") on April 12, pointing out that China's consumer confidence has rebounded overall. In 2024, Chinese consumers plan to spend more on education, domestic travel, and necessities. Chinese consumers' concern for health, self-improvement and family happiness has risen to the top of the list, and self and children's education is the most willing area for Chinese consumers to consume. At the same time, 36% of Chinese consumers plan to increase their spending on groceries and household goods, with fresh food, health nutrition and fresh meat ranking among the top three.
Rational consumption has become the mainstream of China's consumer market. According to the report, 86% of Chinese consumers have changed the way they buy FMCG to control their spending, 37% of Chinese consumers choose to shop online to get more deals, 30% of respondents will stock up on goods when they are on sale, and 25% will go to discount stores and low-cost stores more.
Compared with the survey in early 2023, the low-income consumer group showed signs of rebound, and the overall price sensitivity of consumers increased, with the proportion of "reinvigorated" and "overstretched" consumers who care about low prices rising from 20% to 35%. The proportion of "budget-conscious" consumers who value cost-effectiveness and multi-platform price comparison has increased from 28% to 30%, while the overall proportion of "leisurely" consumers who have the freedom to consume and pursue advanced value, and the proportion of "business as usual" consumers who maintain their consumption habits and prefer brands has dropped from 52% to 35%.
While Chinese consumers are budget-conscious, they have also cultivated new spending habits, redefining the six consumer values for 2024: lifestyle at home, avoiding waste, health prevention, stress management, budget planning and the pursuit of convenience. The emergence of new consumer needs and value systems will also bring new growth opportunities for FMCG companies.
Grasp the new consumption trend and develop new consumption
Reading tips: In the face of new changes in the field of consumption, it is imperative to vigorously develop service-oriented consumption and expand new consumption. China (Hainan) Institute for Reform and Development believes that there is still huge growth potential and room for upgrading of service-oriented consumption in the mainland, but structural contradictions restrict the release of service-oriented consumption potential, and proposes to deepen structural reform to release the huge potential of service-oriented consumption. Based on the continuous observation of the development trend of "big consumption", the report released by PwC and other institutions explores the development trend and construction path of new consumption, and suggests that new consumption cities explore new consumption formats and create new consumption patterns. The School of Journalism of Chinese Minmin University uses apps covering different life scenarios of young people as a window, reflecting young people's personalized consumption outlook, consumption trends that pursue social attributes, and the creativity of rebellious and reverse development of apps.
China (Hainan) Institute for Reform and Development:
Service-oriented consumption in mainland China showed a rapid growth trend
On April 14, during the 4th China International Consumer Goods Expo, the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute released the "Unleashing the Huge Potential of Service-based Consumption - 2024 China Consumption Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") that the mainland's service-oriented consumption showed a rapid growth trend, and there is still huge growth potential and room for upgrading in the future.
The report pointed out that the consumption structure has formed an upgrading trend in the process of repair, and the proportion of service-oriented consumption has rebounded. In 2023, as economic and social life gradually returns to normal, offline consumption and contact consumption will rebound rapidly, and the proportion of service-based consumption will stop falling and rebound. Consumption contributed 82.5% to economic growth, and consumption recovery has become an important driving force for economic growth in 2023. In addition, in 2023, service-oriented consumption will show a certain growth trend, the gap between urban and rural and regional service-oriented consumption will be narrowed, and characteristic service-oriented consumption will emerge.
According to the report, in the next 5-10 years, the consumption structure of 1.4 billion people in the mainland is still in the process of upgrading, and there is still considerable room for transformation, which contains huge growth potential. On the one hand, the transformation and upgrading of service-oriented consumption is a medium and long-term trend. Compared with developed economies, there is still considerable room for upgrading of mainland service-oriented consumption. On the other hand, by 2030, the mainland's service-oriented consumption has huge potential, accounting for more than 50%. First, by 2030, the per capita service-oriented consumption level in mainland China is expected to exceed 20,000 yuan. By 2030, the per capita expenditure of service-oriented consumption is likely to reach 23,000 yuan. Second, the proportion of service-oriented consumption is expected to exceed 50% in 2030. By 2030, the average annual growth rate of household consumption expenditure will remain 7%, and the level of household consumption expenditure is expected to reach 43,000 yuan. As a result, the proportion of service-oriented consumer spending will reach 51.47%.
At the same time, the report pointed out that it is also necessary to see that there are deep-seated structural contradictions and problems in the operation of the national economy and society, which restricts the release of the potential of service-oriented consumption.
The report believes that it is necessary to speed up the optimization of the structure of national income distribution guided by giving priority to the people's wealth; it is necessary to focus on stabilizing enterprises, especially to support the development of private service enterprises; it is necessary to use digital consumption to drive the development of new forms of service-oriented consumption and increase the new supply of service-oriented consumption; it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of the service industry and expand the supply of high-quality services with a high level of opening-up; and it is necessary to give play to the role of the government and strive to optimize the software and hardware environment for service-oriented consumption.
PwC and other institutions:
It is suggested that new consumption cities should explore new consumption formats and create new consumption patterns
On April 13, during the 4th China International Consumer Products Expo, PwC and Hainan International Economic Development Bureau jointly released the "Insight Report on the Development of China's New Consumption Cities" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), suggesting that Hainan explore new consumption formats and create new consumption patterns.
According to the report, Hainan is currently actively promoting industrial integration, the attractiveness and competitiveness of MICE activities have been enhanced, Sanya's duty-free industry and Qionghai international medical tourism consumption have made significant progress, and the characteristic new consumer cities represented by Haikou, Sanya and other cities in Hainan have generally adopted "brand promotion, policy guidance and guarantee" In the future, Hainan will need to combine its own advantages in cultural and tourism resources to explore new consumption formats and create new consumption patterns, so as to continuously enhance the city's cultural soft power and consumption attractiveness.
The report proposes the construction mechanism of "1+N" characteristic new consumer cities, that is, planning "1" development strategies, coordinating and implementing "N" action strategies: after clarifying the overall development strategy, systematic guidance policies will be introduced, public service levels will be improved, and characteristic scenes and characteristic IPs with unique urban characteristics will be created to progressively promote the construction of new consumer cities. Humanistic logic stimulates the value of scenarios, promotes the green renewal and quality upgrading of consumption, and helps the sustainable development of cities.
Based on the continuous observation of the development trend of "big consumption", the report identifies and summarizes the "new consumption city" and new consumption scenarios, explores the development trend and construction path of new consumption, and puts forward forward-looking thinking for Hainan to comprehensively boost consumption and build a "new consumption city" in the new consumption era.
School of Journalism, Renmin University of Chinese:
The rational consumption of the new generation of young people "both saving and spending" coexists with social consumption
Recently, the "App Generation" Chinese Youth Mobile Application Behavior Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by Dong Chenyu's team of the School of Journalism of Chinese University uses four apps covering different life scenarios of young people as a window to study the current living conditions, value orientations and consumption tendencies of young people, reflecting the personalized consumption outlook of a new generation of young people, the consumption trend of pursuing social attributes, and the creativity of rebellious and reverse development of apps.
As life moves towards in-depth app-based development, a new generation of young people (18-27 years old) has become the "app generation". According to the report, young people are replicating three real-life places in cyberspace: home, company, and public space. In terms of consumption choices, most young people focus on cost-effective consumption behavior, and the province should spend money.
The report points out that most of the "app generation" denies "consumption downgrade", and with the change of role from the ivory tower into society, most people have even experienced the stage of "consumption upgrading", and then turned to a more pragmatic consumption rationality.
Young people who use apps creatively have become the real owners of apps. According to the report, young people's app usage behaviors reflect a more pragmatic attitude towards life, more personalized consumption methods, and more accurate individual needs of the "app generation".
In addition, the report points out that "high Engel coefficient consumption" self-pleasing consumption and hobby consumption reflect the pursuit of individuality and social interaction of the "app generation". The new generation of young people believes that the process of consumption is jumping out of its original meaning and creating a new type of interpersonal relationship, and the consumption trend of social attributes is rising. The relationship between apps and young people has evolved from "setting" and "being set", "catering" and "being catered to", to shaping each other and developing together.
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Chen Shuhan