On April 22, Polish President Duda said Poland was ready to join NATO's "nuclear sharing" program, which would allow NATO allies to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory, if NATO decided to strengthen its eastern flank security. As one of the countries that have been most active in providing assistance to Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, Poland is also one of the most hostile NATO members to Russia. Therefore, during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Poland has signed tens of billions of dollars in arms orders one after another, and now it has asked NATO to deploy "nuclear weapons" on its territory, all of which reflect its intention to be ready for war with Russia at any time. So, can Poland's desire to seek the deployment of "nuclear weapons" come true?
A total of 100 B61 nuclear bombs have been stored in the five member states that have joined NATO's "nuclear sharing" program
The NATO "nuclear sharing" program, which Poland has requested to join, is a concept in NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that allows non-nuclear-armed member states to participate in NATO's plans for the use of nuclear weapons. Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey are the NATO countries that are currently participating in the "nuclear sharing" program, and the 100 B61 nuclear bombs deployed in these countries are all provided by the United States. In normal times, these nuclear bombs are stored in the air bases of the countries where they are located, but the nuclear bomb warehouses are guarded by the US Air Force. In addition to assisting the U.S. military in ensuring the safety of nuclear bombs, the host country is also responsible for providing U.S.-certified nuclear bomb delivery fighters.
But now the United States and NATO have gradually discovered that the countries that participated in the "nuclear sharing" before used fourth-generation aircraft as carriers of B61 nuclear bombs, which can no longer effectively break through Russia's modern air defense network. Therefore, the United States took the lead in choosing the fifth-generation stealth fighter F-35A as a new generation of nuclear-weapon-carrying fighters, hoping to rely on its situational awareness to "pierce" or "evade" the Russian air defense network. At present, all five NATO members with nuclear weapons have been deployed, except for Turkey, which has been kicked out of the F-35 program by the United States, the remaining four countries have already purchased F-35As for this purpose, including Germany, which has been resisting.
As early as January 2020, Poland signed an agreement with the United States to purchase 32 F-35A at a cost of $4.6 billion, so it will begin to receive F-35A delivered by the United States from 2024, becoming the first country in the region to have F-35A. It can be said that Poland has met a key condition for joining the "nuclear sharing" program, and in addition to the certification of the United States, it can be regarded as a "one-step" to enjoy the convenience of purchasing F-35A. Unlike other countries, they still have to go through the trouble of changing from the original F-16 and other nuclear bomb-carrying aircraft to the F-35A, and then have to wait for the cumbersome certification process of the United States for the use of the B61-12 nuclear bomb.
Air bases where nuclear bombs were stored after Belgium joined the "nuclear sharing".
In addition, the "nuclear sharing" program also requires air bases used by member states to store B61-12 nuclear bombs, such as NATO's comprehensive assessment based on the base's vulnerability to an attack after storing nuclear weapons, the credibility of the use of nuclear bombs, and the ability to strike targets in Belarus and Russia. At present, Poland's three air bases, including Svidwin, are themselves the deployment sites of Polish F-35A fighters, so they can not only meet the parking and maintenance needs of F-35A carrying B61 nuclear bombs, but also provide services for F-35A carrying nuclear bombs by other "nuclear sharing" member states. This move will effectively enhance the deterrence capability and scope of NATO's "nuclear sharing"!
So, does this mean that Poland will be included in NATO's "nuclear sharing" program? Of course not!
In fact, Poland was proposed by the then prime minister as early as June 30, 2023, that Poland was interested in joining NATO's "nuclear sharing" program to possess nuclear weapons. Shortly thereafter, the head of the Polish National Security Agency, Jacek Siviera, also said that Poland, in order to join the "nuclear sharing" program, could apply to the United States as soon as possible for the country's F-35A fighter jets, which will be delivered from 2024-25, to the United States for certification tests that can carry B61-12 nuclear bombs. But until now, NATO has not made any reply to Poland's proposal. This is because NATO signed an agreement with Russia in 1997 not to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of a new member state, and Poland joined NATO only in 1999, after the agreement came into force.
The reason why Poland is now proposing to join NATO's "nuclear sharing" plan, and even suggesting that NATO abolish the agreement signed with Russia to limit the deployment of nuclear weapons, is to deal with Russia's move to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. After all, the nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus are indeed very close to Poland geographically, and Poland's strong hostility towards Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war undoubtedly makes it feel that its own country is Russia's next "target" after defeating Ukraine. Therefore, the possession of "nuclear weapons" has become an effective means to prevent Russia from "doing this"!
But NATO is also well aware that since Poland shares a border with Kaliningrad, where Russia has deployed many nuclear weapons, if the B61-12 nuclear bomb is deployed here, it will inevitably encounter a strong reaction from Russia, which will directly stimulate the escalation of the situation. However, Poland is one of the countries that are most enthusiastic about providing assistance to Ukraine, providing it with a large amount of weapons and equipment, and it can be said that it is actually second only to the United States and far more than other European countries in terms of enthusiasm. Moreover, Poland is still a country that is on the front line of "resisting Russia" together with Germany, and NATO will certainly not be able to directly deny it without giving face on such a major issue.
That is why Poland's proposal was coldly treated on the grounds that it had signed a treaty with Russia not to deploy nuclear weapons to new member states. After all, if it drags on any longer, as long as Russia and Ukraine can negotiate a truce, then there is no need to discuss Poland's demand. After all, Poland, a country as Russophobic as Poland, really can't imagine the consequences of deploying a nuclear bomb on its territory. Although because the United States can directly control the nuclear bomb, there will be no situation where Poland will "throw it" to Russia. But he wants to rely on this and deliberately create military friction with Russia, and the consequences will definitely be enough for NATO to "drink a pot"!
Therefore, ignoring him is the best choice for NATO!