Since the beginning of this year, the continuous "price war" has prompted the automobile market to be vigorous and lively.
Many people lament that the price reduction of cars is too exciting. It seems that people forget that when new energy vehicles first appeared, the price was inflated. In fact, to put it bluntly, in the second year of this year, no matter what car you buy, you will not spend less money than in the previous two years.
In the final analysis, the meaning of changes in the automotive market is not price reduction, but technological iteration.
That is, you won't spend less money, but you'll get a better tech experience.
Similarly, due to the rapid iteration of technology, industry insiders predict that from May, there may be three major trends in the auto market, and everyone should be prepared.
The first trend is that fuel vehicles will usher in the "ultimate form"
Even those who are fans of oil trucks must be surprised to hear the term "ultimate form".
Oil trucks have experienced hundreds of years of development, so mature and stable, what else can be "evolved"?
At first glance, it seems to make sense. However, the brilliance of science and technology will be evenly wet, and fuel vehicles will not be missed.
What is the "ultimate form" of a combustion engine vehicle?
To put it bluntly, it is a "smart oil car".
It is generally accepted that there are two major tracks in automobile competition, one is performance, and the other is intelligence.
In terms of performance, oil trucks have lagged behind, and this year, with the intensification of intelligent competition, it seems that they will be two steps behind.
At this time, anyone can see that it is better to be one step behind than two steps behind.
Therefore, this year, Volkswagen and Toyota began to "fuel and electricity with intelligence".
This means that functions that are usually only available in new energy vehicles, such as automatic parking and urban navigation. In the past, I could only eat with my eyes, but now I can eat all I can eat in oil trucks.
In this regard, Volkswagen fired the first shot, and this year's new Tiguan L PRO and Passat B9 will use DJI. Toyota is not far behind and will cooperate with Huawei Intelligent Driving.
However, it should be noted that in terms of cost, DJI's set of intelligent driving is only 7,000, and Volkswagen can be delegated to 10-200,000 ordinary cars.
However, Huawei's intelligent driving is said to be a loss on a 300,000 car, and it can be speculated that Toyota's key models of "gasoline and electricity with intelligence", or luxury cars such as Lexus, Camry and Highlander are estimated to be enough.
Of course, some people may want to say that oil trucks are too fancy and impractical.
In fact, there is no need, because there are so many unintelligent oil trucks that do not affect the pursuit of reality.
To put it bluntly, although the gasoline car will evolve to the "ultimate form", it does not mean that the charm will increase.
From the perspective of the overall market, it is still difficult to hide the decline.
The second trend is that range extenders with large batteries will rise rapidly
Two years ago, the extended-range car was "bombarded" by the car company bosses because of its "lack of technology", and two years later, the extended-range car became "quacky".
In all fairness, in addition to being a little more expensive, the range extender car is perfect in terms of actual experience.
Compared with plug-in hybrid, the power of the extended range screams, and compared with the electric car, the extended range of the range screams.
If you have to talk about shortcomings, it's not that there is nothing, and the small battery of the extended-range vehicle is a big pain point.
This is actually not without its torment.
You may wish to consult the extended-range car owners around you, 80% of the car use scenarios are basically short-distance commuting, only electric running, thieves and savings. This is often talked about by extended-range car owners.
But what does it mean to just run by electricity?
Charge, run, recharge, and so on.
That is to say, in most cases, the extended-range car is only equivalent to a large tram with a range of 100-200 kilometers, which is a little bit of battery life, and then think about the 70% achievement rate, which is indeed a bit heart-wrenching.
I saved three dollars and two cents, but it took three days to charge two ends, and the heads were big.
But don't worry, as the cost of batteries drops, large batteries will become the standard for range extenders.
For example, the ideal new L series gives a 52-degree battery. Even Nezha L has been given a 40-degree battery, and it runs 300 kilometers on pure electricity.
It can be said that the bottom guarantee of the rear range extender car is also expected to be 200 kilometers, basically charged once a week, easy and freehand,
After making up for this shortcoming, it is not surprising that the extended-range car will usher in a rapid rise.
The third trend is that the development of pure electric vehicles will enter a bottleneck period
In the past two years, pure electric technology has been dizzying, as if in the blink of an eye, the birth of thousands of new technologies will be missed.
But this year, everyone is a little "desensitized" to new technologies.
You might as well take a look at the tram to be released at the nearby Beijing Auto Show, which is called a many, and that is called a strong.
Moreover, they all have to benchmark Porsche and challenge Tesla.
Strong to strong, but it feels like it's obviously not as "wow" as when I looked up to U8 and asked the world M9 to come out last year.
The next time the tram amazes everyone, it is estimated that the solid-state battery will mature, and the industry's estimate will be 2030 at the earliest.
This means that the development of trams will enter a bottleneck period in the past two years, and will tend to stabilize in the future.
First, prices will fall steadily, and second, the market will rise steadily.
This trend is already being seen in luxury cars.
For example, Ideal MEGA has dropped by 30,000 in just over a month after its release. Tesla's price increase at the beginning of the month, and it dropped before the end of the month. This situation will accelerate the reshuffle of luxury cars and grab the share of "BBA" and second-tier luxury cars.
This trend will also be seen on entry-level trams.
Let's take a look at the current entry-level tram market.
Taking BYD Qin as an example, in March, the Qin PLUS DM-i was 31,016 units, and the Qin EV was only 1,010 units, a huge gap. At first glance, there is no future for entry-level pure electric vehicles.
Specifically picking this point, it is not a singing down of the entry train. Rather, the potential for development is huge.
Because of the entry of the big guys, the entry tram will usher in a "qualitative change". Xpeng's new brand MONA, NIO's Ledao, will equip 100,000-level cars with high-end intelligent driving. The aforementioned DJI Intelligent Drive will also show its skills in these cars.
It is not difficult to predict that entry-level trams will be on par with plug-in hybrids, and together with the acceleration of the cannibalization of the share of gasoline vehicles.
On the whole, although the development of pure electric vehicles will fall into a bottleneck, the share will rise, and the future is promising.
In summary, according to the predictions of industry insiders, the penetration rate of new energy will exceed 50% in the first half of this year.
In other words, this inflection point is what it looks like in May and June. At that time, a new pattern will be formed in the automotive market.
Everyone must prepare in advance and grasp the opportunity.