Strong momentum for economic growth and regional integration in Asia (from an international perspective)

Related research reports and international institutions are optimistic about Asia's economic outlook - strong momentum for Asian economic growth and regional economic integration (international perspective)

　　At a durian factory in Surat Thani province in southern Thailand, workers are packing durians for export to China. In recent years, with the release of RCEP dividends, more and more durians from ASEAN countries have been able to enter the Chinese market more conveniently.

　　Photo by reporter Yang Yi

　　The Asian Development Bank recently released the "Asian Development Outlook 2024" report, saying that the Asian economy will maintain strong growth, and the economic growth rate of the developing economies in the region is expected to be 4.9% this year. Previously, the "2024 Annual Report on Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Process" released during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2024 believes that Asia's economic growth and regional economic integration momentum will be strong this year, and the economic growth rate is expected to reach about 4.5%, and the Asian region will still be the region that contributes the most to global economic growth, and the overall economic performance in 2024 is worth looking forward to.

　　Regional economic indicators show a positive trend

　　According to the Asian Development Outlook 2024 report, economic growth in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia will be 4.7%, 6.4% and 4.1% respectively in 2023. In 2024, despite the uncertainties in the external environment, the end of the interest rate hike cycle of the world's major economies and the continued recovery of commodity trade will help Asia's economic growth, and the overall outlook for the region is positive.

　　According to the report, inflation in developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region was 3.3% in 2023, and this indicator is expected to fall to 3.2% in 2024 and further to 3% in 2025. The Asian Development Bank's chief economist Park Zhishui said that consumer confidence is gradually recovering, the investment sector is generally resilient, and external demand is improving. "We expect strong and stable growth in Asia's major developing economies this year and next. ”

　　At the same time, the downward trend in trade and investment is expected to be reversed as digital trade accelerates and tourism continues to recover in Asia. According to the 2024 Annual Report on Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Processes, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Asian countries is expected to account for 49% of the world's total in 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from 2023. In some sub-indicators, Asian economies are also showing positive trends. At the same time, the capital markets, foreign exchange markets, bond markets and banking sectors of major Asian economies will stabilize due to factors such as the steady economic recovery and the slowdown in the pace of external monetary policy tightening.

　　"Despite a more challenging and uncertain global environment than ever before, the vast majority of economies in East Asia and the Pacific are growing faster than the rest of the world, making a strong contribution to world economic growth. The World Bank's Semi-Annual Economic Outlook for East Asia and the Pacific released a few days ago pointed out that economies in the region need to guard against factors that inhibit economic growth, such as protectionism and policy uncertainty, and maintain growth momentum by raising productivity.

　　Asian Development Bank President Masatsugu Asakawa said that Asian economies should coordinate fiscal and monetary policies, support intra-regional trade and investment cooperation, and give priority to infrastructure construction, green and low-carbon development.

　　Regional economic integration is accelerating

　　On April 10, the durian clipper "Dexiang Surabaya" shipped from Laem Chabang Port in Thailand, carrying 195 tons of Thai durian, successfully completed customs clearance procedures at Nansha Port in Guangzhou. This batch of durians is the first batch of Thai durians imported through Nansha, Guangzhou this year. At present, more than 20 kinds of fresh fruits in ASEAN have obtained access permits to China, becoming "frequent guests" on the tables of Chinese consumers.

　　Since the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into full effect for the 15 signatories in June last year, trade and investment liberalization and facilitation in the Asia-Pacific region have been further enhanced, and economic and trade cooperation among member countries has become more closely linked, injecting impetus into regional economic growth. Through the harmonization of tariff commitments, rules of origin, trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and other trade rules, the RCEP has maximized the integration of 27 trade arrangements and 44 investment agreements of members in the region, effectively promoting the development of the multilateral trading system and maintaining the stability of industrial and supply chains.

　　According to the RCEP, more than 90% of the trade in goods in the region will gradually achieve zero tariffs. According to recent data released by the Ministry of Commerce of Cambodia, in the first quarter of this year, the trade volume between Cambodia and RCEP member countries reached 8.36 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. The Secretary of State and Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of Cambodia, Binso Viji, said that RCEP has brought great opportunities for the economic development of all countries, promoted regional trade and investment cooperation, and brought great benefits to member countries.

　　A person in charge of a perfume coconut processing factory in Thailand's Ratchaburi province said that the reduction of tariffs has provided more convenience for the export of Thai products, and the majority of Thai agricultural products merchants are sharing major benefits such as lower import costs and increased export opportunities.

　　RCEP has brought new opportunities and impetus to the development of the regional digital economy and green economy. According to the data, Indonesia's digital trade volume reached US$82 billion in 2023. Bambang Suryono, chairman of the Asian Innovation Research Center, an Indonesian think tank, said that on the one hand, RCEP has created a more favorable digital trade environment for ASEAN's micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, and promoted further growth in ASEAN's e-commerce and digital payment fields, and on the other hand, it has promoted the development of trade in electric vehicles, solar cells and lithium batteries, and accelerated the construction of green infrastructure such as energy transition and clean transportation in ASEAN.

　　"Regional economic integration has become an important buffer for the region to withstand global shocks, and at a time when protectionism is on the rise and the risk of global fragmentation is intensifying, strengthening connectivity and cooperation among regional economies can enhance economic resilience and achieve mutual benefit. According to the Asian Economic Integration Report 2024 released by the Asian Development Bank in February this year, a total of 5 economic and trade agreements and 17 new agreements will be signed in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023, especially in the fields of technology and digital connectivity.

　　China's economy has injected important impetus into regional growth

　　According to data recently released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China's GDP exceeded 29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4.8% to 5%, and Citi raised it from 4.6% to 5%.

　　"China's GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was higher than most institutions' expectations, and it is off to a good start to achieving its full-year economic development target. Dai Erbiao, director of the Asian Growth Research Institute in Japan, said that China's national fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, total import and export of goods and other major drivers of economic growth contribute to a balanced balance, which will help enhance the confidence of investors and enterprises in various countries.

　　In particular, the Asian Development Outlook 2024 highlights the rapid development of China's high-tech sector. According to the report, the added value of China's secondary industry will exceed 48 trillion yuan in 2023, an increase of 4.7%, and the "new three" products, such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products, will all achieve double-digit growth. Keiko Hagiwara, director of the economic and strategy department of the Asian Development Bank in China, believes that China's economy will achieve high-quality development characterized by green technologies and a more balanced growth model.

　　A.T. Kearney, a world-renowned management consulting firm, recently released the "Global FDI Confidence Index 2024" report, which surveys investors' views on FDI flows in the next three years. According to the report, China's foreign direct investment confidence index has risen from seventh to third place in the world, ranking first in the emerging market specific rankings.

　　Pu Zhishui believes that China will accelerate the development of new quality productive forces and provide new impetus for the global economy with innovative development. "Other countries can benefit from Chinese investment and technology, trade with China, and work together to build competitive global supply chains. Jin Youxin, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank Representative Office in China, said that with the improvement of the labor market and household income, the increase in household consumption will boost China's economic growth, and China will remain the largest engine of world economic growth in 2024.

　　(Bangkok, April 22)