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△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, April 22, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "Gu Yu" have arrived. This week's (April 22-28) national weather stage, experts believe that cold and warm air is still active, during which the trough from Lake Baikal to Mongolia will continue to throw out cold air, and at the same time, the warm and moist air flow north of the subtropical high will continue to move north. As a result, it will remain rainy in the south during the week. And under the warm and humid air flow pulse, there are also obvious rainfall and convection processes. The temperature in the north is fluctuating, and it may drop significantly after hitting a new high from the 25th to the 26th. In addition, along with the activity of cold air, there may also be wind-blown sand in the north.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that monitoring data showed that from last night (21st) to today (22nd), the intensity of rainfall in southern China weakened overall, but there were still some heavy rains in the southwest of Guangdong. In addition, due to the combined influence of the upper-air cold vortex + trough + low-level shear line in the north, the precipitation has increased. According to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, from tonight to tomorrow (23rd), the eastward movement of the northern upper-air trough will deepen, so there may be heavy rain-heavy rain in western Liaoning that is rare at this time. And on the coast of South China, under the convergence of cold and warm air, there are also heavy rains-torrential rains, localized heavy rains.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, the 24th may be the least rainy and weakest day in the south this week. On the 25th, the warm and humid airflow strengthened, and the rainfall in southern China and the south of the Yangtze River increased and intensified again, and it was still strong on the 26th, and at that time, there may be heavy rain - heavy rain in northern Guangdong from the 25th to the 26th. In particular, the rainfall in Shaoguan since April this year (2024) will continue to set new records, and it is not ruled out that the single-month rainfall record of 974.8 mm observed in June 2022 cannot be ruled out. By the 27th, the rain in the south weakened the pressure in the south. From the 28th to the 29th, it increased and strengthened.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that as experts say, it can be seen through the numerical model forecast of false equivalent potential temperature in the next 7 days that the degree of humidity and heat in the atmosphere, although the summer monsoon has not yet broken out, has exceeded 340K in South China (*This value is used as the front of the summer monsoon). In other words, in the near future and in the future, the humidity and heat of the low-level atmosphere in South China will be comparable to that of the "pre-flood season in South China" after the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the South China Sea, that is, the scale of "dragon boat water" from late May to mid-June. Therefore, at the moment, it can be said that the power of "dragon boat water" is being felt in advance. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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