In your cognition, which is the higher interest rate of personal mortgage or corporate loan?
In the past few years, the weighted average interest rate of personal housing loans in mainland China has been higher than the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans, but in fact, this is an "inverted" phenomenon. The latest data shows that the "seesaw" has reversed, and the weighted average interest rate of personal housing loans, which has always been higher, is lower than the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans, and it is not difficult to see important changes in monetary policy adjustment.
Data map: Bank staff count the currency. Photo by China News Service reporter Zhang Yun
01
The "upside down" ends
Recently, the latest data released by the central bank showed that the weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans in March was 3.75%, 1 basis point lower than the previous month and 22 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the weighted average interest rate of new personal housing loans was 3.71%, 15 basis points lower than the previous month and 46 basis points lower than the same period last year, both at historical lows.
On April 18, Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, also emphasized this data at a press conference. He said that on the whole, a series of monetary policy measures introduced in the early stage are gradually playing a role, and the national economy has continued to rebound and made a good start. There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and we will closely observe the effect of the policy, the economic recovery, and the realization of the target, and make good use of the reserve tools when the opportunity is taken.
This is also the first time in recent years that the interest rate of personal housing loans is lower than the interest rate of corporate loans. It was found that the central bank disclosed the "weighted average interest rate on corporate loans" for the first time in the monetary policy implementation report for the second quarter of 2020, and a major background was the LPR reform carried out by the central bank in August 2019.
At that time, the data released was June 2020, and the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.64%, and the weighted average interest rate of personal housing loans was 5.42%. Since then, the cost of corporate financing and personal consumption credit has continued to decrease, but it has also maintained a trend that the interest rate of personal housing loans is higher than that of corporate loans.
But this is actually an "upside down" phenomenon. According to Oriental Jincheng's calculations, before September 2017, the interest rate of residential housing loans was continuously lower than the interest rate of corporate loans, and the difference between the two was 0.3 percentage points on average.
"Generally speaking, we will feel that the probability of individual customers not paying back is definitely smaller than that of enterprises, and the term of housing loans is much longer than that of corporate loans, so it is normal for personal housing loans to be lower than corporate loan interest rates. A person in the banking industry told the China News Financial Reporter that the time period when the "upside down" began was also the period of overheating of real estate, and now it has returned after adjustment.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, also believes that the phenomenon of "inversion" between personal mortgage interest rates and corporate interest rates is the result of a combination of factors. The loan interest rate is not only the pricing of risks by commercial banks, but also reflects the policy regulation and control ideas of the financial management departments to a certain extent.
He explained that for a long time, the mainland has implemented a lower limit on the interest rate of personal housing loans, so the interest rate of personal housing loans was higher than the general loan interest rate and higher than the enterprise loan interest rate. With the changes in the real estate market, residents' willingness and ability to consume housing still need to be improved, so the financial regulatory authorities have introduced a variety of policies to work together, so that the mortgage interest rate has dropped significantly.
Data map: Buyers are viewing and understanding the real estate. Photo by China News Service reporter Liu Zhongjun
02
Is there still room for further reductions in mortgage rates?
However, moving towards a range where mortgage interest rates are lower than corporate loan interest rates does not mean the end of mortgage interest rate adjustments.
Recently, more than 10 cities in Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Gansu and other provinces have continued to issue notices on the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first house. Statistics show that more than 40 cities across the country have phased out the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first house.
At present, the latest LPR of more than 5 years is 3.95%, and according to the previous minimum reduction of 20 basis points, the interest rate of the first home loan can reach 3.75%. The fact that many cities have "no lower limit" also means that there will be more room for interest rate reductions.
"Overall, reducing mortgage interest rates is one of the important measures to promote the release of housing demand, and it is expected that more cities will follow suit. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the average interest rate of the first mainstream mortgage in Baicheng in March was 3.59%, and the average interest rate of the second mainstream mortgage was 4.16%, both unchanged from the previous month, down 43 basis points and 75 basis points respectively from the same period in 2023. In terms of energy levels, the average mortgage interest rates of the first two sets of first-tier cities in March were 3.88% and 4.29%, the first two sets of interest rates in second-tier cities were 3.61% and 4.17% respectively, and the first two sets of interest rates in third- and fourth-tier cities could reach 3.57% and 4.15% respectively.
"As of the end of March, the overall first and second home loan interest rates in Baicheng are at a historical low, and the lower mortgage cost and faster lending speed will help promote housing demand into the market and speed up the transaction process, which is conducive to the smooth recovery of the housing transaction market. The Shell Research Institute believes.
"Judging from the current policy of 'easing-oriented' and 'promoting demand', there may still be room for downward mortgage interest rates in the future. Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes.
Source: China News Network