April is coming to an end, the domestic corn market is "rising again", the downward pressure in the northeast and north China of the producing areas is highlighted, and the spot corn will continue to fluctuate and decline!
In the Northeast market, although the purchase and sale of tide grain is over, the pressure on dry grain inventory is high!
In the early stage, traders and drying towers entered the warehouse in advance, and the inventory of enterprises was high, although the grain reserves increased to support the market sentiment, but, due to the difficulty of grain source outgoing, some traders were worried about the prospect of corn to become stronger, and the traders' subscription mentality has improved, and the amount of corn in the circulation link has increased!
On the demand side, by the feed enterprises in the early stage of the low-price overdue rice storage is sufficient, deep processing enterprises corn passive accumulation is obvious, the enterprise corn just demand is insufficient, the average daily amount barely meets the rigid needs of enterprises, the cautious sentiment of the factory has become stronger, and some traders have increased their subscription mentality, enterprises go with the market, and the quotation is slightly weak!
However, the mentality of selling grain in the market is still relatively high, and in particular, according to the weather forecast, in recent days, there will be precipitation in some areas of North China and Huanghuai, which has further increased the difficulty of grain storage at the grassroots level, and the mentality of peasant households selling grain is strong!
In terms of channels, at the end of March, the channel concentrated entry, corn inventory is generally full, traders in order to avoid the risk of storage, the recent majority of the collection with the go-based, by the grassroots amount, local enterprises in front of the grain supply increased, enterprises just need to procure, with the market, see the car to give the price of the mentality is stronger, corn spot quotation again worse!
According to data analysis, on April 22, the price of deep-processed corn was updated, and the price of corn "fell sharply", and the price showed a downward trend, as follows:
Northeast market: Tieling Guotou fell 0.5 points, quoted at 1.15 yuan, Cargill Biochemical fell 0.5 points, quoted at 1.14 yuan, Jingliang Longjiang fell 0.25 points, quoted at 1.14 yuan, Tongliao Meihua fell 0.5 points, quoted at 1.15 yuan, Jinzhou Port Yongfenglong quotation rose 0.5 points, the execution price was 1.175 yuan, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia region, corn quotation was stable and weak, purchase and sales were relatively cautious, the average price of mainstream corn was 1.112 yuan/jin, and the deep processing quotation was 0.9~About 1.185 yuan/jin;
Shandong: 1,334 cars of corn arrived in the morning, an increase of 214 cars! In Shandong, Yucheng Bowling Bao fell 0.3 points to 1.145 yuan, Chenming starch fell 0.5 points to 1.161 yuan, lemon biochemistry fell 1 point to 1.245 yuan, Zaozhuang Hengren fell 0.7 points to 1.13 yuan, Zou Cheng Rice Neng fell 0.4 points to 1.135 yuan, Yishui Dadi fell 0.3 points to 1.16 yuan, Heze Dazecheng Bio fell 0.3 points to 1.123 yuan, Yishui Qingyuan fell 0.5 points to 1.145 yuan;
Feicheng Fukuan, Binzhou Jinhui, Huayi Ronghai, Zouping Xiwang, Changle Yingxuan, etc., the price of corn in mainstream enterprises is about 0.3~0.5 points, the average price of corn in Shandong is 1.152 yuan/jin, and the local deep processing price is 1.12~1.245 yuan/jin;
Personally, I believe that at present, the domestic corn market is running weakly, and in the short term, the market may be difficult to improve the decline!
On the one hand, the risk of corn selling pressure in Northeast China still exists, the difficulty of shipping dry grains, the small number of orders in the southern sales area, the cost performance of corn in Northeast China is reduced, and the pressure on outward delivery is greater;
On the other hand, in the North China market, the surplus grain at the grassroots level is gradually decreasing, however, the channel inventory is high, and the new wheat listing cycle is approaching, the traders' further warehousing mentality is insufficient, the supply of grain is loose, and some traders have a certain phenomenon of Tengku corn, and the risk of corn selling pressure is not reduced!
Therefore, in the short term, the corn market will still be dominated by weak shocks, but in the medium and long term, with the continuous consumption of enterprise inventories, the demand for corn replenishment increases, and the grassroots surplus grain decreases, and the traders' voice is enhanced, it is expected that before the end of May and mid-June, the corn market will gradually become clear, and the price may enter the trend of shocks and rises!