As of now, the notice of pension adjustment in 2024 has not been announced, and I don't know if it can be announced before the end of April. In 2024, the proportion of pensions will be adjusted, let everyone guess, some people say that it can rise by 4.2%, some people say it can rise by 4%, some people say it can rise by 3.8%, some people say it can rise by 3.5%, and there seem to be very few people who say that it will rise lower.
Generally speaking, the proportion of pension adjustment is high, and the proportion of pension linked adjustment is also high, and the highest proportion of linked adjustment is that the proportion of pension linked adjustment in Shanghai in 2021 has been as high as 3%, but it is "sacrificed" in exchange for seniority-linked adjustment, only this time, in 2022, it will be restored to the linkage with seniority, and the unit price of seniority is 1 yuan, which is at a low level in the country.
Why is this so, because for many years, Shanghai has attached great importance to pension-linked adjustments, which are at the highest or higher percentage, at 1.8% in 2023.
Since we attach great importance to the adjustment linked to the pension, it is inevitable to ignore the adjustment of the seniority, the unit price of the length of service is unlikely to be high, and the pension and the pension are not able to achieve a complete balance between the two, and will definitely be biased towards one side and ignore the other.
Over the years, due to the adjustment of the proportion of pensions is getting lower and lower, the distribution of the four parts of the pension has been constantly undergoing new changes, such as the adjustment of the fixed amount, the adjustment of seniority, the adjustment of pensions, and the adjustment of age, and the most prominent change is that the importance of pension adjustment is getting higher and higher, especially in southern provinces and cities.
Let's take the adjustment of pension plans in some provinces and cities in 2023 as an example, Guangxi (pension linked adjustment ratio of 2.24%), Hainan (pension linked adjustment ratio of 2.22%), Guangdong (adjustment ratio of 2.12%), Yunnan (pension linked adjustment ratio of 1.93%), Fujian (pension linked adjustment ratio of 1.89%), Shanghai (pension linked adjustment ratio of 1.8%)) and other provinces and cities are among the representatives.
The above-mentioned provinces and cities have low pensions for enterprise retirees, whenever the pension is adjusted, the pension linked adjustment part is the most affected, and the increase in pension is often the least, because the pension is very low, the base is low, and the increase in pension is not possible.
In this way, when the pension is adjusted in 2024, it is expected that the proportion of pension adjustment in various provinces and cities will not change significantly compared with 2023, at most it is a fine-tuning, and the possibility of the linked adjustment ratio reaching 2.5% does not seem to be large, but it is not excluded that a province and city will launch a sprint to the 2.5% adjustment ratio, nothing more.
Since the adjustment of pensions is mainly inclined to pension-linked adjustments, then, the fixed adjustment, seniority-linked adjustment of the increase in pensions will be less, because on the whole, such a little pension, pension-linked adjustment and distribution of pensions, fixed adjustments, seniority-linked adjustment of the distribution of pensions will be less.
In this case, the pension of low enterprise retirees, pension lower flexible employment retirees are therefore the most affected, in the fixed adjustment, seniority-linked adjustment, pension-linked adjustment of these three parts can not take any advantage, and can only be in the age-linked adjustment part to get back some face, because the age-linked adjustment is neither linked to the length of service, nor linked to the pension, only linked to the age. (Original: Zhou Fengchi)