Chinese dollar bonds
Topic: The stock of Singapore's local currency bond market is about US$550 billion, the vast majority of which are government bonds, and the rest of the industry bonds account for a relatively small proportion. The stock of bonds is mainly short- and medium-term bonds. The total amount of defaults in history is US$1.5 billion, and the industries that have defaulted are energy, industrials, and finance. The spread between Singapore government bonds and US Treasury bonds and US Treasury bonds has been below 0% for a long time, mainly because Singapore's sovereign credit rating is lower than that of the United States most of the time. We have calculated its potential return for 2024 taking into account different scenarios.
Overseas, U.S. bond yields fluctuated in March, non-farm payrolls and CPI exceeded expectations in early April, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield broke through to more than 4.5% under the resonance of the triple factors of rising secondary inflation risk in the United States, the supply of U.S. bonds, and cold demand.
Domestically, the level of funds is the key factor restricting the downside of 10-year treasury bonds, and under the stable exchange rate, the fluctuation of capital prices in March is significantly lower than that of the same period in previous years, and there is no downward trend in capital prices.
In March, the Chinese dollar bond investment grade index rose by 0.64%, and the high-yield index rose by 1.06%. In terms of industries, real estate bonds rose by 1.64%, urban investment bonds rose by 0.62%, and financial bonds (excluding real estate) rose by 0.56%, indicating that the rebound momentum of real estate bonds slowed down.
In terms of urban investment, the policy of reducing the scope of debt is expected to be expanded, and the risk of short-term urban investment bonds is still controllable, but it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that in the context of reducing the number of financing platforms, some urban investment may change to non-urban investment through splitting, restructuring and business transformation, which will reduce the external support they receive.
In terms of real estate, real estate sales are still under pressure, the performance of real estate companies is under great pressure, and some state-owned enterprises have also begun to seek shareholder financial support to alleviate liquidity pressure, and more policies are still needed for credit repair.
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