The Federal Reserve's hawk shot down U.S. bonds, the S&P Nasdaq fell for five consecutive days, and TSMC guided to suppress chip stocks
Following the European lithography giant ASML, TSMC, which released its earnings report, also hit chip stocks and continued to drag the broader market downward, with the S&P 500 hitting its longest losing streak since the Fed turned dovish in October last year, fueling expectations of interest rate cuts this year.
TSMC announced profit growth for the first time in a year in the first quarter, and its own revenue guidance for the second quarter was higher than expected, but at the same time lowered the growth forecast for the entire semiconductor industry except memory chips this year, as well as the global wafer foundry industry expectations this year. Chip stocks as a whole fell further, with the chip stock index, which fell more than 10% from last month's high, falling deep into the adjustment range, and TSMC's U.S. stocks once fell more than 6%.
In the bond market, the price of U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded in a "one-day" retreat, and yields returned to the upward trend. Some of the data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy was solid: the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose well above expectations in April to a two-year high, and the number of initial jobless claims fell instead of rising last week. At the same time, Fed officials are "hawkish" again: Fed Governor Bowman said on Wednesday night that progress in reducing inflation is slow and may even stall, and on Thursday the Fed's "third-in-command", New York Fed President Williams, said that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and mentioned interest rate hikes twice, saying that raising interest rates is not his baseline forecast scenario, but if the data is based on it, it may raise interest rates. Treasury yields rose more after Williams' speech, with the yield, the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield, rising to 5.0%, approaching a five-month high set on Tuesday when it rose above this mark.
On Thursday, the market's expectation that the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike in May once exceeded the probability of a rate cut
By Thursday, market expectations for a total of Fed rate cuts this year fell below 40 basis points
In the currency market, the dollar index rebounded, and the gains after Williams' speech were extended, updating daily highs and starting to approach the five-month high set on Tuesday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the depreciation of the yen sharply pushes up domestic inflation, the central bank may raise interest rates again. The yen still extended its intraday decline against the dollar, approaching the lowest level since 1990 hit on Tuesday, commenting that market participants were wary of the possibility of the Japanese government intervening in the currency market at any time, but they expected the Japanese to raise the threshold to 155. Bitcoin has rebounded unaffected by the US dollar, rising more than $3,000 and regaining $64,000 intraday, bidding farewell to the low level in more than a month when it fell below $60,000 on Wednesday.
Among commodities, when the dollar rebounded, gold rebounded to a limited extent, failing to refresh the record closing record set on Tuesday, and New York gold futures even turned lower in the short term after Williams' speech. International crude oil continued to fall, but the decline was significantly slower than Wednesday's, and the intraday decline erased more than 1% to rise. Tensions in the Middle East have eased, and U.S. sanctions on the two oil producers have affected oil prices, the commentary said. Venezuela lost a key U.S. license to allow it to export oil, and while the U.S. announced sanctions against Iran, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, the new sanctions did not affect Iran's oil industry.
S&P hit the longest streak in half a year, the Dow rebounded, Nvidia fell nearly 2% at the beginning of the day, and then turned up, and the financial report fell sharply, and Netflix dived after the launch
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, and they all fell at midday. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.2% after turning lower at the beginning of the session, and then quickly turned higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell nearly 0.6% after turning lower at the beginning of the session, turned higher more than half an hour after opening, and rose nearly 0.7% when it refreshed its daily high in early trading. After turning lower at midday, the S&P fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained its rally in early trading, rising slightly more than 330 points, up nearly 0.9%, and turned lower several times at midday, falling more than 70 points and nearly 0.2% when it refreshed its daily low, and turned slightly higher in late trading.
In the end, among the three major indexes, only the Dow closed higher, up 22.07 points, or about 0.06%, at 37,775.38 points, not continuing to approach the closing low since January 18, which was refreshed on Monday. The S&P and Nasdaq fell for five consecutive days. The S&P closed down 0.22%, its longest losing streak since October last year, at 5,011.12. The Nasdaq closed down 0.52% at 15,601.5 points, and the S&P both updated their closing lows since Feb. 21 for the fourth consecutive day.
The S&P fell for the first time in five straight trading days since October last year, before the Fed turned dovish
The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed down 0.26%, falling for five consecutive days and refreshing its lowest level since February 5 for two days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.57%, falling for two consecutive days to its lowest level since Feb. 1. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed down 0.52%, updating its lowest level since Feb. 28 for two days.
Major U.S. stock indexes mostly closed lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq leading the decline, and the Dow closing slightly higher
Among the Dow constituents, healthcare giant UnitedHealth (UNH), which rose more than 5% after Tuesday's earnings report, led the third consecutive day of gains, closing up nearly 3%, while Travelers (TRV), an insurance company that fell more than 7% after Wednesday's earnings report, rebounded and rose nearly 1.9%, while Microsoft and Intel were the top losers.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only four closed down on Wednesday, with IT falling nearly 0.9% in chip stocks such as Microsoft and Intel, consumer discretionary in Tesla falling 0.7%, industrials falling nearly 0.4%, and energy falling 0.2%, among the seven sectors that closed higher, Meta's communication services rose nearly 0.7% to lead the way, utilities rose 0.6%, and UnitedHealth's healthcare rose slightly.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, among the "seven sisters" of technology giants, only Meta did not fall throughout the day, and Tesla fell the first by the close.
After long-term bullish Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded his rating from Buy to Hold, and the price target slashed 35% to $123, nearly 21% lower than Wednesday's close, Tesla fell more than 4.3% at the beginning of the session and closed down nearly 3.6%, falling for five consecutive days, refreshing the closing low since January 25, 2023. Rosner noted that Tesla's low-priced Model 2, which was expected to launch next year, now looks uncertain, which could change the investment theme of the stock, and warned that its stock investor base could experience a "painful shift" as Tesla ramps up its efforts with self-driving and AI technology.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Microsoft closed down 1.8%, falling for two consecutive days to the lowest level since March 6; Apple, which had turned up in early trading, closed down nearly 0.6%, falling for four consecutive days, refreshing the low since October 26, 2023 set last Wednesday; Amazon, which had risen slightly in early trading, closed down more than 1.1%, falling for five consecutive days to the lowest level since March 26; Netflix, which will announce its first-quarter earnings report after trading on Thursday, turned up again in early trading and fell again in midday trading, closing down 0.4%, and rose more than 3% after the announcement of its earnings after trading Meta, which fell for four consecutive days on Wednesday and the lowest level since April 1, rose nearly 3.7% in early trading and closed up 1.5%, while Alphabet, which rose alone on Wednesday, fell more than 0.4% at the beginning of the day and turned up in early trading, closing up nearly 0.4%, continuing to walk out of the low level since April 5 refreshed on Tuesday.
Chip stocks, which fell sharply on Wednesday, failed to rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX falling more than 2% at the beginning of the session, closing down about 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, falling for two consecutive days and refreshing the closing low since February 21. Among chip stocks, TSMC's U.S. stocks fell nearly 6.3% in early trading and closed down nearly 4.9%; Nvidia, which fell to the lowest level since March 1 on Wednesday, turned down more than 1.9% at the beginning of the session, and then quickly turned up, rising nearly 2.6% at midday and closing up nearly 0.8%; AMD closed up 0.7% at the beginning of the session; Intel closed down 1.8%; after the media said it was expected to receive more than $6 billion in chip appropriations from the U.S. Department of Commerce next week, Micron Technology rose more than 1% in early trading, and then turned down to close down 3.8%; ASML's U.S. stocks, which fell nearly 7.1% after reporting new orders for the first quarter that exceeded expectations on Wednesday and fell 61% from the previous quarter, closed down nearly 2.1%.
AI concept stocks generally continued to fall. Ultramicro Computer (SMCI), SoundHound.ai (SOUN), known as "Little Nvidia", Astera Labs (ALAB), which sells data center interconnect chips, fell more than 3%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 1%, Palantir (PLTR) fell 0.8%, Adobe (ADBE) fell 0.3%, Oracle (ORCL) fell more than 2%, and C3.ai (AI) rose more than 1%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks rose overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which has fallen three times in a row and repeatedly updated its closing low since February 13, closed up 1%. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Among the new car-making forces, NIO rose more than 2% at the close, Li Auto and Xiaomi rose more than 1%, and Xpeng Motors fell more than 3%. Among other stocks, by the close, NetEase rose nearly 3%, Tencent Fan Orders rose nearly 2%, Baidu and JD.com rose more than 1%, Ctrip rose nearly 1%, Station B rose nearly 0.4%, Pinduoduo rose 0.2%, and Alibaba rose less than 0.1%.
The bank stock index continued to rally. The overall banking sector benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed up 0.7%, continuing to move from Tuesday's closing low since March 1, while the regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up 0.6%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) also rose about 0.6%, rebounding two days after Tuesday updating its closing lows since Nov. 28 and Nov. 30, 2023, respectively.
Among the big banks, Wells Fargo rose 2.7%, Bank of America rose 1.5%, JPMorgan Chase rose 0.7%, Morgan Stanley closed up 0.2%, and continued to rise after Tuesday's earnings report, Citi also rose 0.2%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.2%.
Among the stocks that reported earnings reports, Alaska Airlines (ALK) rose nearly 7% in early trading and closed up 4% after reporting a lower-than-expected loss in the first quarter and a rebound in travel demand that drove a larger-than-expected second-quarter profit guidance, Alcoa (AA), which had higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue and a higher-than-expected loss per share, fell 4.8% at the beginning of the session and turned higher in early trading to close down 0.2%, and Elevance Health (ELV), a health insurer that earned higher-than-expected first-quarter earnings and raised its full-year guidance, rose more than 4% in early trading , closed up 3.1%, while private equity giant Blackstone (BX), which had higher-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenues but returned little more than cash to shareholders and was not much different from a year ago, fell more than 3% in early trading to close down 2.3%, and credit agency Equifax (EFX), which had weaker-than-expected first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance, fell more than 10% to close down 8.5% at the beginning of the session, and second-quarter revenue and earnings were better than expected real estate developer D.R. Horton (DH) rose more than 5.8% at the beginning of the session before turning lower at midday to close down nearly 2.1%.
Among the more volatile stocks, DNA testing company 23andMe (ME) rose more than 50% in early trading and closed up 41.9% after disclosing that the CEO was considering taking the company private.
In European stocks, some corporate earnings reports continued to boost, and the pan-European stock index, which recorded the biggest drop in nine months on Tuesday, rebounded slightly for two consecutive days. The Euro Stoxx 600 index continues to move off Tuesday's closing lows since March 6. Stock indexes of major European countries generally rose for two consecutive days, led by the Spanish stock index rising more than 1%.
Among the sectors, the banking sector closed up nearly 2.1%, mainly due to the Italian bank Bankinter, which is optimistic about future loan income growth after strong growth in the first quarter, rose 5.3%, Portuguese bank Millennium, which will resume dividend payments, rose 5%, the telecommunications sector rose more than 0.8%, among the constituents, Tele2, whose services revenue and earnings were higher than expected, closed up 6.7%, and the industrial sector rose more than 0.6% Swiss-listed industrial, energy and automation products giant ABB closed up 6.3% after reporting higher-than-expected first-quarter profits and is expected to accelerate growth in the coming months, while the technology sector fell nearly 0.8%, with Europe's most valuable technology stock, Netherland-listed ASML closing down 1.4% after Wednesday's earnings report.
U.S. Treasury prices retreated, with the two-year yield rising to 5.0% intraday, approaching a five-month high
The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell below 4.56% before the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and the European stock market continued to rise intraday, the U.S. stock market regained 4.60% at the beginning of the session, and the U.S. stock rose above 4.65% at midday, up more than 9 basis points from the daily low, and began to approach the high since November 13, 2023, which was 4.70% on Tuesday and refreshed for two consecutive days, and was about 4.63% at the end of the bond market, rising more than 4 basis points in a day, climbing for the fifth day in the last seven days, and the yields on other maturities of U.S. bonds rebounded after falling back on Wednesday.
U.S. Treasury yields of all maturities rose on Thursday, with medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields rising by more than 10 basis points in the last four days
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, broke below 4.91% to refresh the daily low in the Asian market, and the U.S. stock market jumped above 4.97% at the beginning of the session, and was tested at 5.0% at midday, approaching the high since November 14, 2023, which rose above 5.0% on Tuesday, and rose nearly 9 basis points from the daily low, to about 4.99% at the end of the bond market, up about 6 basis points in the day, climbed for the third day in the last four days, and rose or broke through 5.0% in the last three days.
The two-year Treasury yield recovered on Thursday and rose at least 5.0% intraday for the third straight day
The dollar accelerated its rebound after the Fed's three-in-command speech, the yen approached the lowest point since 1990, and Bitcoin rose more than $3,000 intraday
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies including the U.S. dollar against the euro, fell below 105.80 to refresh the daily low before the European stock market, down nearly 0.2% during the day, and the U.S. stock market basically maintained its rally after the pre-market rally, and the gains expanded after Williams' speech, which was close to 106.20 at midday to refresh the daily high, and began to approach the high since November 1, 2023, which was refreshed at 106.50 on Tuesday, and rose more than 0.2% during the day.
By the close of trading on Thursday, the dollar index was above 106.10, up nearly 0.2% on the day, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the greenback against 10 other currencies, rose more than 0.1% to start approaching its highest level since November 2023, which was refreshed on Tuesday, and the dollar index rebounded after ending a five-day winning streak on Wednesday.
The Bloomberg spot dollar index accelerated its rally after the Fed's triat-in-command speech
Among non-U.S. currencies, the yen retreated, approaching the lowest level since 1990, and the U.S. dollar against the yen was close to 154.70 in midday U.S. stocks, approaching Tuesday's upper test of 154.80 and the four-day high since 1990, up nearly 0.2% during the day; EUR/USD traded near 1.0640 after the US stock market close, starting to fall to its lowest level since late October 2023, which was updated after Powell's speech on Tuesday, and GBPUSD fell below 1.2440 intraday and began to approach Tuesday's low since November 17, 2023.
The offshore yuan (CNH) refreshed its daily high to 7.2451 against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trading, approaching the high since April 10 that was refreshed to 7.2425 on Wednesday, and European stocks maintained their decline after turning lower in pre-market trading, and U.S. stocks refreshed their daily low of 7.2539 in early trading, down 124 points from their daily high. At 4:59 a.m. Beijing time on April 19, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.2496 yuan against the U.S. dollar, down 56 points from the end of New York on Wednesday, and fell on the second day of the week after rebounding on Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC), which once dived nearly $5,000 on Wednesday, rebounded overall, and U.S. stocks rose above $64,100 in early trading, up more than $3,000 or more than 5% from the intraday low below $60,900 in early European trading, and broke from the low since March 5 when it fell below $60,000 on Wednesday, and U.S. stocks closed above $63,000 and rose nearly 4% in the last 24 hours.
Crude oil fell for four consecutive years and hit a new three-week low after falling more than 1% intraday
International crude oil futures in the European stock market before the turn to fall after the European stock market in the morning refreshed the daily low, the United States WTI crude oil fell below $81.60, Brent crude oil fell below $86.10, down nearly 1.4% during the day, after many times to rise, the US stock market at noon after the refresh of the daily high, the US oil near $83.50, up more than 0.9% in the day, cloth oil rose to $87.80, up nearly 0.6% in the day.
In the end, crude oil closed slightly lower, falling for four consecutive days, and the decline was significantly more moderate than Wednesday, which was the biggest drop since January 8. WTI May crude oil futures, which fell more than 3.1 percent, closed up $0.04, or 0.05 percent, at $82.73 a barrel on Wednesday, and Brent June crude oil futures, which fell slightly more than 3 percent on Wednesday, closed down $0.18, or 0.21 percent, at $87.11 a barrel, both of which hit their lowest levels since March 27.
U.S. WTI crude oil closed slightly lower after falling more than 1% intraday
Lun Xi lun copper hit a new high in the past two years, after the Fed officials spoke, the rebound of gold futures had "flash fall"
London base metals futures mostly rose on Thursday, up at least more than 1%. London tin rose nearly 3.7%, leading the rally for two consecutive days, and London copper, which also rose twice in a row, hit a new high since June 2022, and London copper closed above $9,700 for the first time in nearly two years. London nickel rose nearly 1.8%, rising for two consecutive days to the highest level since October last year. London aluminum rose for five consecutive days, and hit a new high since February last year for four consecutive days. London lead rose twice in a row, approaching the highest level set on Monday since November last year. And London zinc, which rebounded to its highest level since April last year, on Wednesday, retreated.
New York gold futures in the Asian market in the morning of the Asian market to refresh the daily low of $2377.2, down nearly 0.5% in the day to basically maintain the rally, the U.S. stock market opened shortly after the refresh of the daily high of $2408, up more than 0.8% in the day, and last Friday near the $2450 intraday record high is still far away, in the U.S. stock market in the morning Williams speech had a short-term turn down.
By the end of the day, COMEX June gold futures, which had halted a four-day winning streak on Wednesday, closed up 0.4% at $2,398 an ounce, not yet close to Tuesday's fourth consecutive closing record at $2,410.
Spot gold was close to $2,393 at the beginning of the U.S. stock market to refresh the daily high, up more than 1.3% during the day, did not continue to fall from the intraday record high of $2,430 set by last Friday's rise, Williams fell below $2,370 after his speech, giving up most of the gains in the short term.
At the close of U.S. stocks, spot gold hovered at $2,380, up about 0.8% on the day, not close to the record high set by Tuesday just below $2,390.
Spot gold regained $2,390 intraday on Thursday, after the Fed's third-in-command gave up most of its gains