This year's pig market has indeed performed well, out of the off-season pattern, which also makes the market bullish sentiment rise again.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data of the pig market in the first quarter, in which several data that everyone is concerned about can be said to be performing well:
For example, at the end of the first quarter, the national breeding sow herd fell to 39.92 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a new low in three years;
The number of live pigs was 408.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%;
the number of live pigs slaughtered was 194.55 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%;
In addition, the pork output in the first quarter that everyone is most concerned about was 15.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%.
This series of data shows that the supply pressure of the pig market is declining, which can be said to be good news for the pig market, and the reaction of the corresponding pig market, the financial stock market reaction is more obvious, there is a bottom pull up phenomenon, and then has maintained a strong shock, but the spot market is still a downward trend.
Although some people believe that the spot market tends to react more slowly than the financial market, so this phenomenon is normal, but in the eyes of Xinnong, the splash of the spot market may not be too big.
Because behind these data, there are also some concerns:
First, there is still controversy over the capacity data.
Although the official data production capacity continues to be reduced, the statistics of many institutions have shown that the data of pig production capacity in the last month of March has rebounded slightly.
The reason is that after the pig price off-season, the bullish sentiment of the market has increased, the willingness to go has become lower, and some are even expanding, so the removal of production capacity is slowing down, or even rebounding.
Therefore, there is a certain controversy about the capacity data, and the capacity affects the supply of the pig market after 9-10 months, so for the current market, the direct impact is not significant.
Second, pig slaughter is not proportional to the decline in pork production.
The data shows that in the first quarter, the slaughter of pigs decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, but the output of pork decreased by only 0.4%, that is, the slaughter of pigs decreased significantly, but the decline in pork was not obvious, which means that the weight of pigs slaughtered has increased and more meat has been produced.
The market consumption consumes pork, not according to the number of heads, so in the case of the same number of slaughter, the supply of pork in the market is increased.
Third, supply has fallen, but consumption remains subdued.
While the data on the supply side is declining, there is no exact data on the consumer side. However, the consumption data released by some institutions in March showed that pork consumption was on a month-on-month downward trend.
Among them, the consumption of beef and mutton generally increased month-on-month, while the consumption of pork decreased by 16.67% month-on-month.
On the one hand, pork began to enter the off-season after the Spring Festival, and on the other hand, it also showed that the price of beef and mutton weakened, and the substitution of pork increased.
At the very least, pork consumption remains sluggish.
Fourth, there are bigger concerns in the market.
That is, with the release of this series of data, the decline in supply will be more positive for the pig market, and the bullish sentiment will further grow.
However, this is a double-edged sword, and the increase in bullish sentiment will lead to an increase in the pressure bar, the increase in the filling bar, and the slowdown in the depletion of production capacity, which will make the supply pressure move back.
Once the supply pressure moves back, whether the follow-up market consumption can be caught can't help but gasp in the market.
At least for now, after entering April, pig prices have risen significantly and weakly, and even fallen frequently in recent days, and began to move closer to the edge of 15 yuan/kg.
Although there is a good May Day holiday at the end of the month, the market is also worried about whether it will be a flash in the pan again, and then pig prices continue to struggle below the cost line.
So although the data looks positive, the market is not happy about it, on the contrary, there are more worries.
However, it also shows that the market is becoming rational, which may not be a bad thing.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!