Refuse to shout and understand the policy
Stockholders like the most is to listen to the shouting, all kinds of shouting, why? Because this is the stockholders are instilled with a lot of labeling ideas, every time after shouting, there will be a corresponding label short-term stocks (far away, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, etc., which can be realized?), so shareholders pay special attention. In fact, shareholders ignore that there are many similar labels, but it is useless to play the capital without sticking it, or in other words, the tour capital is to shoot first, and then draw the target, but the problem is that the shareholders always see the target first, and then go to the gun, and the order is reversed. To put it bluntly, there are many similar concepts and themes, but the problem is that the tour capital has not been done, so it is different. Even the company clarified that as long as the capital is there, it will rise as much, and even if the company confirms that the capital is not done, it will be useless.
Typical such as the shouting at the end of July 2023, even the 8.28 stamp duty cut has not been able to change the trend. So, will the "National Nine Articles" change the market this time? In fact, just like the historical stamp duty reduction, it does not change the market, and every time it is a new low. Every 10 years, we see that after the national nine articles in 2004 and 2014, the market has at least 3 quarters and 5 quarters before there is a so-called bottom. Obviously, this has nothing to do with the historical low.
In 2005, due to the success of the share reform and foreign exchange reform, from 2014 to the first half of 2015, it was due to the liberalization of leverage. In fact, they all solved the problems of the time, and can we find the answers to these in the "National Nine Articles", or the specific details? Obviously, far-fetched is not a good choice. On April 15, that is, the first trading day after the national nine, we saw that the market was a very extreme 28 trend, is this reasonable, does it mean that the new national nine is once again big is beautiful?
Large, medium and small caps are homogeneous and cannot escape the economic cycle
In fact, there is a fact, through the study of the "calendar stock buying method", it can be found that historically, large, medium and small cap stocks have indeed had local differences, such as in 2010 and 2017, large-cap stocks rose and small-cap stocks fell, and in 2013 and 2021, large-cap stocks fell and small-cap stocks rose. The rest of the time, it's all in the same direction. And even so, both large-cap and small-cap stocks have not escaped the market as a whole. In this regard, a lot of research has been done, all of which show that large and small cap stocks are homogeneous and can be replaced, but they cannot be combined.
Therefore, there is a trap in this, shareholders will oppose large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, in fact, this is not the case, the economic cycle factors are more obvious, large and small cap stocks can not escape economic factors, and Yuming also summarized in the https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404950844121678748, compared with the policy, or economic factors are more effective and more durable, after all, the final economic factors to determine the listed company, as well as monetary policy, market hot structure, etc., and at this time shareholders must pay attention to avoid short-term comfort and long-term mistakesThis is also the easiest for shareholders to do after previous policies.
Policies are for a long-term factor, but the stock market is more for short-term cash-out, such as the millennium plan of Xiong'an, cryptocurrency, 5G development, carbon neutrality/carbon peak, state-owned enterprise reform, etc., are all policies, and this is completely different from the concept of speculation in the stock market. If you confuse these factors, don't say make money, it is likely to be deep, such as the concept of Xiong'an, new energy, 5G theme, state-owned enterprise reform concept and many other varieties, after the local pulse rebound, it is a chicken feather, which shows that the policy in real life and the theme of stock market speculation are not the same thing. Next, let's take a closer look at this aspect.