Experts talk about the strengthening of the economic foundation in the first quarter of 2024

On April 16, according to the data released on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national macro economy in the first quarter of 2024 has made a good start, with a stable and improving trend, a solid economic foundation, and a positive trend of macro indicators, which has effectively enhanced market development confidence and made gratifying steps in the annual process of high-quality development.

According to the preliminary accounting data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 will reach 29.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.13 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6% over the fourth quarter of last year. The macroeconomic aggregate and the growth rate are improving in tandem, and the solid foundation is relatively obvious.

From the observation of the composition of the three industries:

The primary sector is relatively stable. The added value of the primary industry was 1.15 trillion yuan, which was relatively flat over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points over last year. The data show that the total added value of the primary industry is relatively stable, and the main influencing factor is that the producer price index of agricultural products fell by 3.9%, which fell by 5.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and the price factor affects the growth space of output value.

The secondary industry is doing well. The added value of the secondary industry was 10.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.19 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 6.0 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.3 percentage points over last year. The data shows that the secondary industry strengthened and rebounded in the first quarter, effectively supporting and consolidating the macroeconomic foundation. Among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1 percent year-on-year, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.5 percentage points over last year. The data shows that the industrial industry above the designated size has recovered significantly after the epidemic, and the growth rate has accelerated.

In terms of the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of last year; the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7 percent, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.7 percentage points over last year; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.9 percent, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 2.6 percentage points over last year. It is not difficult to see here that the recovery of the manufacturing industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water in the three major categories has accelerated.

By economic type, the added value of state-controlled enterprises increased by 5.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period of last year and 0.2 percentage points faster than last year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.5 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the same period last year and 1.2 percentage points faster than last year; foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan increased by 4.8 percent, an increase of 7.5 percentage points over the same period last year and 3.4 percentage points faster than last year; and private enterprises increased by 5.4 percent , an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and 0.3 percentage points faster than last year. The data reflects that market players of different economic types have different degrees of good performance in the development of the first quarter, and the trend of production improvement is obvious.

From the observation of the industrial producer price index, in the first quarter, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers fell by 2.7 percent year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and up 0.3 percentage points from last year; the purchase prices of industrial producers fell by 3.4 percent year-on-year, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and up 0.2 percentage points from last year. Industrial price data show that in the first quarter, despite the great downward pressure and challenges, the industrial producer index still showed obvious signs of recovery, which effectively encouraged the production confidence of enterprises and enabled industrial production enterprises to see the dawn.

The optimization of the tertiary industry has slowed down. The added value of the tertiary industry was 1.749 billion yuan, an increase of 0.95 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points over last year. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail trade increased by 13.7 percent, 10.8 percent, 7.3 percent, 7.3 percent, and 6.0 percent respectively, and the growth rate increased by 2.5, 4.8, 2.5, -6.3, and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. From the data of industry categories, it is not difficult to see that the impact of the superposition effect of epidemic factors and policies is more prominent, and the process of industry operation is quite different.

From the observation of the main forms and carriers of economic operation (i.e., the "troika"):

The investment in fixed assets of the whole society has risen steadily. In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 10 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.72 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.5 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year, and an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points over last year.

In terms of the composition of the three industries, investment in the primary industry increased by 1.0 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 1.1 percentage points over last year; investment in the secondary industry increased by 13.4 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 4.4 percentage points over last year; and investment in the tertiary industry increased by 0.8 percent, down 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points over last year. After the epidemic, the superposition effect of policy-based investment guidance and social investment confidence is obvious, and the trend of market players has not changed.

Consumption is strengthened and stabilized and slowed down. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.54 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.5 percentage points over last year. According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were 10.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.46 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.6 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.5 percentage points over last year; the retail sales of rural consumer goods were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.08 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point over the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.8 percentage points over last year. The data shows that after the epidemic, after nearly a year of running-in between the market and user consumption expectations, the optimization of the business model, urban and rural consumption has gradually returned to normal, and rational return will become a trend.

Imports and exports grew steadily. In the first quarter, the total import and export of goods was 10.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.28 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 4.8 percentage points over last year. Among them, exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.09 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 4.3 percentage points over last year, and imports of 4.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.19 trillion yuan over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5 percent, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 5.3 percentage points over last year. Imports and exports offset each other, with a trade surplus of 1.31 trillion yuan, a difference of 102.7 billion yuan over the same period last year. The data shows that the trade surplus has increased steadily, and the size of the balance has decreased quarterly.

To sum up, the macro economy in 2024 will start well, the guiding and leading results will be obvious, the foundation for steady progress will be well consolidated, and the achievements will not come easily. At present, it is still necessary to actively face up to and respond to the complex and severe international economic situation, uncertain and unstable factors still exist, internal and external pressures and challenges of domestic economic development coexist, and the changeable situation is not clear. In the future, it is more necessary to strengthen our faith, correctly implement a series of macroeconomic regulation and control policies and measures of the party and the state, refine the organization and implementation, work together from top to bottom, work together with the whole people, and unremittingly promote the sustained economic recovery. (Guo Qinchuan)