This article delves into the many manifestations of misjudgment psychology and its impact on our decision-making, aiming to help readers identify and avoid these common psychological pitfalls, which I hope will be helpful to you.
Hello, I'm Lin Ji.
Have you ever regretted or chagrined a miscalculation?
Here is the 72nd of the 100 analytical thinking models: misjudgment, which can help us reduce misjudgments and increase the probability of making good judgments and decisions.
1. Why do you learn the psychology of misjudgment?
Human nature is complex and changeable, but there are also rules to follow.
Human perception and cognitive systems are prone to error, and if you are not careful, you may be deliberately manipulated by others and deceived without knowing it.
Cognition often depends on the situation, and even if the same person thinks about the same problem, when the situation is different, it will lead to different conclusions.
In order to better solve problems, we need to have a better theoretical framework and more thinking models, so that we can better explain the various phenomena we encounter and make correct judgments and decisions.
In order to obtain a correct judgment, it is usually necessary to first collect various examples of false judgments, and then consider how to avoid misjudgments.
By learning the psychology of misjudgment, we can help us broaden the boundaries of thinking, and then use our thinking to control the tool, so that the tool can play a greater value.
2. What is the psychology of misjudgment?
In "Poor Charlie's Book", Charlie Munger summarizes 25 psychological tendencies that are easy to misjudge, which are like switches, which are flicked and reacted.
Here's a brief look at the 25 misjudgments, and to help with comprehension and memory, I've modified or simplified the names and illustrated them with examples.
(1) Incentive mechanism
Driven by incentives, some people may engage in unethical behavior in order to get what they want.
For example, in order to get a higher commission, a salesperson may try to take advantage of the loopholes in the system and act to harm the interests of the company or customers.
(2) Like/Love
Human beings have an innate desire to love and be loved, which prompts people to develop psychological biases, often ignoring the shortcomings of the objects they love, and even distorting other facts for the sake of love.
For example, someone may spend all their possessions because they like a celebrity, or even commit suicide and other excesses.
(3) Hatred
Hate is the opposite of love, and humans also have an innate tendency to hate/hate, which prompts people to ignore the merits of the objects they hate, to hate people, objects, and actions that can make them associate with the objects they hate, and even to distort the facts in order to get revenge.
For example, some Chinese hate the number 4 because it is reminiscent of the closely pronounced character "death."
(4) Avoid suspicion
The brain naturally hates uncertainty, so it has a tendency to avoid doubt, which pushes people to make decisions as quickly as possible in order to eliminate confusion and stress and increase certainty.
For example, when primitive people encounter danger to their lives, they must react quickly or fight or flee, otherwise they may die at any time.
(5) Pursue consistency
In order to save energy, the brain is naturally reluctant to make changes and wants to maintain the status quo, so there is a tendency to pursue consistency, which makes habits crucial.
For example, some stubborn people cling to the wrong ideas formed when they were children, including feudal thinking, and refuse to let go until they die.
(6) Curiosity tendencies
Human curiosity greatly contributes to the efficiency of knowledge development, but on the other hand, curiosity kills cats.
For example, the curiosity of scientists drove the development of science, but there were also people who paid the price with their lives, and Bruno, who preached "heliocentrism", was burned alive.
(7) Fairness tendency
Every literate modern person expects others to be able to comply with certain ways of behaving in order to ensure the fairness of the social system.
For example, in a civilized society, strangers queue up civilly, and everyone obeys the "first come, first served" rule.
(8) Jealous tendencies
From ancient times to the present, the psychological tendency of envy/jealousy has always been deeply rooted in human nature.
For example, in times of scarcity, it is not uncommon for siblings to turn against each other when they see others taking more food, and it is not uncommon for siblings to turn against each other.
(9) Giving back propensity
Similar to many social animals, humans also have a tendency to "repay virtue with virtue and return tooth for tooth", which is similar to the principle of reciprocity in "Influence".
For example, a salesperson may use a small favor to make the consumer pay a lot of extra money.
(10) Associative tendencies
A few simple associations can trigger people's conditioned reflexes, even if the associations are very far-fetched.
For example, when people see their favorite handsome men and women in an advertisement, they will naturally have a good impression of the advertised product.
(11) Denial of reality
Sometimes reality is too painful and unbearable, so people will refuse to acknowledge it and even distort the facts.
For example, when a mother hears about the tragic death of her beloved son, she may refuse to believe this fact.
(12) Self-esteem is too high
Many people have a tendency to overestimate themselves, think that what they have is better, and like people who are similar to themselves.
For example, 80% of people believe that their IQ is above average.
(13) Over-optimism
A person will believe what he wants, and thus he will have a tendency to be overly optimistic.
For example, when someone buys a lottery ticket, they may get carried away by the jackpot, regardless of how low the probability of winning is.
(14) Loss aversion
For the same thing, there is much more pain from loss than with the joy of gaining it.
For example, if a person has just picked up 100 bucks and is blown away by the wind, he will feel pain.
(15) Social proof
People tend to have a herd mentality, automatically following the people around them to think and act together.
For example, when an article gets a lot of likes, others will also tend to follow and agree with the idea in the article.
(16) Comparison errors
It is difficult for humans to judge things in isolation, and they need to rely on comparison to capture information, so it may cause a tendency to react to contrasts incorrectly, which is similar to the principle of contrast in Influence.
For example, someone spent 300,000 yuan to buy a car, of which the price of accessories is 3,000 yuan, although the price of accessories seems insignificant, but in fact, the cost performance of accessories may be very low.
(17) Stress effects
A sudden increase in stress can lead to a rush of adrenaline, pushing for extreme responses and even triggering cognitive dissonance that can lead to complete breakdown.
For example, cults can turn people into walking dead believers through pressure and brainwashing.
(18) Pay attention to easy access
The brain is often content with things that are easy to get and overestimates their importance.
For example, modern people have easy access to high-calorie, high-fat, high-sugar foods, and the brain often overestimates their value, which can lead to problems such as obesity and disease.
(19) Don't forget
All the skills that human beings learn will be degraded because they are not used, and they can only be continuously improved through continuous practice.
For example, the knowledge that you learned in school to prepare for an exam is not used after the test and you will soon forget it.
(20) Chemical substances
Chemicals can cause great harm to people, especially drugs, and can have tragic consequences.
For example, someone may be tempted to take drugs, resulting in the destruction of their family.
(21) Tendency to age
As people age, their cognitive abilities will gradually decline, but maintaining the habit of learning and thinking can delay the process of decline.
For example, most seniors struggle to learn complex new skills, but Charlie Munger is still wise in his 90s because he's always learning.
(22) Authoritative tendencies
Human beings live in hierarchical societies and have an innate tendency to obey authority.
For example, in the classroom, students often tend to obey the authority of the teacher.
(23) Tendency to talk nonsense
Some people are naturally nagging and like to talk useless nonsense.
For example, many parents always like to tell their children some big truths, which are nonsense in the eyes of their children.
(24) Emphasis on reason
People naturally want to know the "why", and no matter what the specific reason is, as long as they can say a reason, it is easier to get approval.
For example, when someone is cutting in line, it is easier to get the consent of others as long as they say: I have something urgent.
(25) Synergy
When multiple psychological tendencies work together, it can have extremely serious consequences.
For example, a gambler's misjudgment of loss aversion and the pursuit of consistency can eventually lead to bankruptcy.
3. How to use the psychology of misjudgment?
We study the psychology of misjudgment, not to make mistakes, but to avoid them.
Just as we learn the "Seven Weapons" of Influence, not to deceive, mislead or manipulate others, but to avoid being deceived, misled or manipulated by others.
When we know the common misjudgments, we might as well use them as a frame of reference and checklist, and use reverse thinking to think about how to avoid falling into the trap of misjudgment, and then establish a more reliable cognitive system, gain insight into the truth, and move towards the road to happiness.
For example, we should be vigilant, appropriately suspicious or reserved about the behavior and speech of stakeholders, so as to avoid being deceived and becoming a "wronged leader".
In terms of personal growth, we can also use the super-reactive tendency of the incentive system to allow ourselves to complete the important tasks that we don't like every day, and then reward ourselves for doing the things we like.
For example, do important work first, and then reward yourself for looking at your phone for a while. Many parents ask their children to finish their homework before playing, which is also using the power of the reward system.
Before making a major decision, if we want to avoid impulsiveness, it is best to have a cooling-off period, think carefully, use probabilistic thinking and statistical thinking, and fully consider the opinions of opponents, and strive to think twice, so that we can look at the problem more objectively and make more rational decisions.
No matter how difficult it is, we need to face the truth, reduce jealousy, increase our curiosity, and stay informed, so that we can reduce the negative consequences of misjudgment and have more wisdom.
IV. Final Words
Misjudgment is like a double-edged sword, not all the time it is good, not all the time it is bad, the key is how people use it.
Bad actors may take advantage of misjudgment and cause great harm to society, such as moral turpitude, inefficiency, unfairness, etc.
Good people may use misjudgment to help themselves and others avoid falling into the trap of misjudgment. It's like walking in the dark with a bright flashlight in your hand that can light up the world around you.
If more people can learn and apply misjudgment and do more good deeds for society, then our world will be a better place.
Official account: Lin Ji, author of "Data Analysis".
This article was originally published by @林骥 on Everyone is a Product Manager. Reproduction without the permission of the author is prohibited.
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