► National Development and Reform Commission: Capacity utilization rate is an indicator that reflects the relationship between production and demand in the short term, which is affected by factors such as demand and profitability. According to preliminary analysis, the capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover in the next few quarters. Some parties link the issue of production capacity with international trade, believing that more export commodities means overcapacity, which is untenable.
► Securities Times: Tourists' enthusiasm for travel during the May Day holiday remains high, and the trend of transnational tourism has increased significantly. Many travelers choose to travel by train when traveling abroad. The number of orders for domestic users to book foreign train tickets during this year's May Day holiday increased by more than 10 times year-on-year.
► OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: The current model is not smart enough, although people are still in a very primitive and limited stage of using GPT-4 for scientific research, and in the era of GPT-6, people will see it as a general-purpose tool that can help in all aspects. And in the era of GPT-8, people may be amazed at the breadth of tasks it can accomplish, and it may even be beyond our imagination now.
Macroeconomic
1. National Development and Reform Commission: At present, all parties are very concerned about ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the central government has decided to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the next few years starting from this year to be used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. Concentrate efforts to support a number of major and difficult matters that are related to modernization, urgently needed for development, have been wanted to be done for many years but have not been able to do, and need to be promoted at the central level, adhere to step-by-step implementation, orderly progress, and issue 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024.
2. Ministry of Finance: On April 16, Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance of China, co-chaired the fourth meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group with Vice Secretary of the Treasury Shang Bo on the sidelines of the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., USA. Focusing on the implementation of the important consensus of the leaders, the two sides conducted in-depth, pragmatic and constructive communication on topics such as the global and Sino-US macroeconomic situation, balanced growth, and communication arrangements for the next step.
3. Nine departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: Closely follow the needs of digital industrialization and industrial digital development, and use special actions such as cultivating, attracting, retaining, and using digital talents in about three years, so as to increase the effective supply of digital talents and form a digital talent agglomeration effect. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is focusing on new occupations in the field of digital technology such as intelligent manufacturing, big data, blockchain, and integrated circuits, exploring the establishment of a certification system for digital technology engineers, and training about 80,000 digital technology skilled personnel every year.
4. Energy Bureau: From January to March, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,337.3 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 28.8 billion kWh, up 9.7 percent year-on-year, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 1,505.6 billion kWh, up 8.0 percent year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 423.5 billion kWh, up 14.3 percent year-on-year.
5. Eurozone: In March, CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with an expected growth of 2.40%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.8%, with an expected growth of 0.80%.
Real estate dynamics
1. Beijing: For the purchase of housing in old residential areas and the completion of the "comprehensive energy-saving transformation", "seismic and energy-saving comprehensive transformation", "individual renovation and environmental remediation" and "renovation of dangerous old buildings" renovation projects in the comprehensive renovation of old residential areas, the borrower will support them when applying for loans. The standard for approving the loan term has been optimized from three years below the remaining service life of the house to three years less than the remaining land use life.
2. Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province: The "Implementation Measures for the Renovation of Old Villages, Old Factories and Old Towns in Guangzhou" was promulgated, which will come into force on May 15, 2024. The "Implementation Measures" make it clear that when "left-behind households" refuse to return their collective land use rights, the local government will deal with them in accordance with the law and apply to the court for compulsory enforcement.
3. Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province: Recently, C&D, China Railway Construction and other real estate enterprises and related institutions were convened to hold exchange seminars, and representatives from the housing management department of Hangzhou also attended the meeting. It is reported that the theme of the conference is how to create a new balance in Hangzhou's real estate market through the linkage of first-hand and second-hand activities, and the participants discussed and exchanged views on how to further reduce transaction costs to stimulate market vitality in Hangzhou by learning from the experience of other cities in "trade-in".
Stock market stock
1. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3071.38 points, up 2.14%, with a turnover of 416.255 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9381.77 points, up 2.48%, with a turnover of 502.215 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1797.31 points, up 2.11%, with a turnover of 207.003 billion. Overall, individual stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 5,100 stocks rose in the whole market. The turnover of the two cities was 918.5 billion, a decrease of 28.7 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, flying cars, Sora concepts, copper high-speed connections, memory chips and other sectors rose first, while a few sectors such as ST fell. Northbound funds sold a net of 232 million yuan throughout the day, of which 255 million yuan were sold through Shanghai Stock Connect and 23 million yuan were net bought through Shenzhen Stock Connect.
2. On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.02% to 16,251.84 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.07% to 3340.22. The state-owned enterprises index rose 0.10% to 5,749.69 points. On the disk, oil, electricity, automobiles, integrated telecommunications business, airlines, ultra-supercritical power generation and other sectors were among the top gainers, while building products, perovskite cells, solar energy, blue-chip real estate stocks and other sectors were among the top decliners. SenseTime and ZTE rose more than 5%, WuXi AppTec rose more than 4%, Li Auto rose nearly 4%, WuXi Biologics and Xiaomi Group rose more than 2%, Laikai Pharma fell more than 7%, and Kuaishou fell more than 3%. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$1.147 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought 1.566 billion Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net sold 419 million Hong Kong dollars.
3. As of April 17, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market value was 342.621 billion yuan, and the transaction amount was 5.421 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of April 16, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 786.233 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.650 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 698.438 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.744 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1484.671 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.394 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
5. CICC: Looking ahead, the market still has some favorable conditions, and the medium-term opportunities outweigh the risks. First of all, corporate earnings have initially stabilized, industrial enterprises have performed better, and inflation is expected to rebound moderately due to the low base. In terms of corporate earnings, total profit increased by 10.2% year-on-year in January-February, compared with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in 2023. At present, the overall valuation of the A-share market is not high, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is 10.1 times, which is still significantly lower than the historical average of 12.6 times. The reform of the capital market has driven enterprises to pay more attention to medium- and long-term shareholder returns and improve the quality of listed companies.
6. China Securities Construction Investment: It is estimated that in 2024, the sales volume of electric vehicles will be 10.42 million in China and 16.8 million in the world, a year-on-year increase of 19%, corresponding to the demand for power batteries of 980GWh, and the total global demand for lithium batteries after superimposing batteries of small power, consumption of lithium batteries and energy storage will be 1428GWh, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Although the contradiction of oversupply continues, at the margin, production scheduling continues to improve, with a month-on-month increase of 9-14% in April, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to further improve to 70%.
7. CITIC Securities: As of the fourth quarter of 2023, the market size of mainland bond ETFs reached 78.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.26%. As the bond bull market has continued to heat up since the beginning of the year, the net value of some bond ETF products has also grown rapidly, and the share of some products has even increased exponentially. This round of market mainly benefited from the resonance of demand for transactional and allocation funds, and then accompanied by the recovery of long-term bond interest rates to low shocks.
8. China Securities News: Recently, the market capital preference is quietly changing. Among the ETFs known as the "capital vane", popular broad-based index ETFs such as SSE 50, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have seen net outflows, while ETFs tracking indices such as dividend low volatility, CSI A50 and resources are becoming new "capital pools".
9. Shanghai Securities News: Many listed companies controlled by central enterprises have taken action to include market value management in the corresponding assessment indicators and list them as key tasks in 2024. It will adhere to the market value management concept with value creation as the core, and will increase dividends, implement restricted stock incentive plans, and adopt timely measures such as increasing holdings and repurchases.
10. Securities Daily: The key element of the development of heavy capital business is sufficient capital, for which securities companies continue to "transfuse" heavy capital business through refinancing, but frequent refinancing not only suppresses the return on net assets and valuation level of securities companies, but also increases the pressure on risk management of securities companies. The uneven development of heavy and light asset business, and the improvement of the professional ability of investment banking, wealth management, asset management and other capital-light businesses are not significant, which is one of the reasons why domestic brokerages, especially listed brokerages, are "big but not strong".
11. Changan Automobile: The net profit in 2023 will be 11.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.25%, and it is planned to distribute 3.43 yuan in 10 distributions.
12. Three Gorges Tourism: In 2023, the operating income will be 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.10%, and the net profit will be 129.6 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2848.55%.
13. Chunguang Technology (4 boards): The company's stock trading price has deviated from the increase by 47.75% since April 11, and the stock price has risen significantly recently, and there may be a risk of a decline after a large short-term increase. Up to now, the company's controlling shareholders, actual controllers and persons acting in concert hold a total of 90978100 shares of the company's shares, accounting for 66.10% of the company's total share capital.
14. Shengyi Electronics: The company's PCB products are mainly focused on communications, servers, automotive electronics and other fields, and in 2023, PCB products in the global communication field will be affected by factors such as declining demand and intensified industry competition, and the overall price of products will decline. In order to maintain market share, the company adjusted prices in a timely manner, and the prices of PCB products in the communication field decreased significantly year-on-year.
Wealth Spotlight
1. World Gold Council: Gold shipments from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) were 124 tonnes in March, down slightly by 3 tonnes from February, as surging gold prices dampened demand, but upstream physical gold demand rose to its highest level since 2019 at 522 tonnes in the first quarter. In March, China's onshore and offshore gold price premiums eased, reflecting weaker domestic demand amid surging gold prices.
2. Shanghai Securities News: A few days ago, a number of fund companies released the first quarter report of their bond funds in 2024. Judging from the disclosed data, a number of short- and medium-term bond funds "attracted gold" in the first quarter, with a scale increase of more than 70%. In order to maintain the smooth operation of the fund, many fund companies have opened purchase restrictions on short- and medium-term bond funds. As of April 16, a total of more than 30 short- and medium-term bond funds have opened the purchase restriction mode since April.
3. Jiemian News: Recently, a number of banks' wealth management companies have lowered the performance benchmark of their wealth management products. Since March, the decline in the quotation of wealth management has not been able to catch up with the downward trend of the income of the underlying assets, resulting in the gradual narrowing of the price difference between the quotation of wealth management and the underlying assets, and even inverted. A number of wealth management companies, including Huaxia Wealth Management, Everbright Wealth Management and Ping An Wealth Management, have issued announcements to lower the performance benchmark of their products.
4. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. "Unconventional" and "maximum", Sichuan has set off a strong "hydrogen wind", explored the exemption of high-speed tolls for hydrogen energy vehicles, and domestic enterprises have also practiced "hydrogen" skills. What is the current progress of hydrogen energy commercialization?How large is the installed capacity of fuel cells?What key technologies still need to be broken through?Friends, hurry up to the end of the article to check today's financial secretarial tracking#"Hydrogen"The wind is sailing from afar
Industry Watch
1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In 2023, the 178 national high-tech zones across the country will achieve a GDP of 18 trillion yuan, accounting for about 14% of the national GDP, and an industrial added value of 9.2 trillion yuan, accounting for about 23% of the country. The 178 national high-tech zones have gathered about 30% of the country's high-tech enterprises, 40% of the specialized and special new "little giant" enterprises, and 60% of the listed enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
2. Ministry of Transport: In 2023, the national road freight volume will be 4033681 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the waterway freight volume will reach 936746 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The cargo throughput of the port was 1697326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The container throughput of the port was 310.34 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.
3. Qubit Think Tank: The scale of China's AIGC application market will reach 20 billion yuan in 2024 and trillion yuan in 2030. 80% of B-end products achieve revenue, nearly 50% of C-end products are mainly free, AI native applications account for nearly 57% higher than X+AI, and multimodal is the general trend, with application products accounting for nearly 50%.
4. China Railway Group: In response to the reflection on the Internet that "some trains are on sale during the May Day holiday", the passenger travel during the May Day holiday is highly concentrated, and the contradiction between capacity and demand is very prominent, resulting in a shortage of tickets in local areas and time periods. It is recommended that passengers and friends can choose off-peak travel according to the availability of tickets in different time periods and directions, or they can choose to purchase tickets by waitlist ticket purchase, transfer transfer, etc., so as to increase the success rate of ticket purchase.
5. National Development and Reform Commission: The low-altitude economy involves high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence and other industries, with a wide range of service areas, long industrial chains, diversified business formats, etc., is a strategic emerging industry with broad prospects, and is also a typical representative of new quality productivity. At present, the mainland has a good foundation for developing a low-altitude economy, but its development is still in its infancy.
6. CCTV: In the first quarter, the export performance of high value-added products such as automobiles and ships was outstanding, of which the export value of ships increased by 113.1% year-on-year. Half of the nine ships delivered so far this year are related to intelligent and green energy.
7. Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: At present, the price of polysilicon has fallen below the production cost of enterprises and reached the cash cost of some enterprises. Polysilicon companies will maintain high inventories for some time to come, and there is no hope that prices will be repaired before a large-scale shutdown occurs.
8. Canalys: In the fourth quarter of 2023, Chinese mainland cloud infrastructure service spending increased by 22.4% to $9.7 billion. The top three cloud vendors in Chinese mainland were Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and Tencent Cloud, with a total growth of 27.8%, accounting for 73.7% of total cloud service spending.
Company news
1. China FAW: Under the background of the Notice on Adjusting the Relevant Policies of Auto Loans issued by the Central Bank and the State Administration of Financial Regulation, on April 16, FAW Auto Finance Co., Ltd. comprehensively adjusted the down payment ratio of auto loans, and launched industry-leading financial products with zero down payment to continue to create value for customers.
2. Tesla China: Tesla's Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory is scheduled to start construction in May this year and complete mass production in the first quarter of 2025, which is Tesla's first energy storage Gigafactory project outside the United States.
Global vision
1. Thailand: After approving new incentives to boost local battery production, seven Chinese companies, including CATL, China Innovation Airlines, Inpai Battery, EVE Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Sunwoda and Honeycomb Energy, are "very interested" in investing in Thailand. Later in 2024, at least two companies are expected to invest in Thailand, with a total investment of more than 30 billion baht (about 5.9 billion yuan) in the first phase.
2. IMF: Although the U.S. economy has performed well recently, behind the strong demand is the still overheated U.S. economy, which requires the Fed to adopt a "cautious and gradual" easing policy. The U.S. fiscal stance that is incompatible with long-term fiscal sustainability is particularly worrisome. This poses short-term risks to the disinflationary process and long-term fiscal and financial stability risks to the global economy.
3. Finance Associated Press: Last week, the weekly export volume of Russian crude oil reached the highest level since May 2023, and the four-week average with less volatility also rose sharply, climbing to the highest value since early June last year. The rise in supply and prices have boosted Russia's crude oil revenues.
4. CCTV News: The United States will impose new sanctions on Iran and entities that support Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the coming days. The US military will also work to strengthen missile defense and early warning systems throughout the Middle East.
Financial data
1. New Third Board: On April 17, a total of 6,197 companies were listed, with no new additions on the same day, and the turnover was 150 million. The three-board component index was reported at 845.04, down 0.49%, with a turnover of 110 million.
2. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close on the afternoon of April 17, it was mixed. Iron ore rose by more than 4%, coking coal, urea, etc. rose by more than 2%, hot coil, coke, etc. rose by more than 1%, Shanghai zinc, SS, etc. rose slightly, rapeseed meal fell by more than 3%, apples, soybean meal, etc. fell by more than 2%, cotton yarn, red dates, etc. fell by more than 1%, and sugar, starch, etc. fell slightly.
3. Treasury bonds: On April 17, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 was stable at 101.648, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 was stable at 103.365, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.02% to 104.465. The 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 1.15BP to 2.26%, and the 10-year CDB rate fell 3.90BP to 2.33%.
4. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On April 17, the main crude oil futures contract 2406 closed at 661.6 yuan / barrel, up 0.2 yuan, or 0.03%. All contracts traded 124893 lots, and open interest decreased by 882 lots to 62,527 lots. The main contract traded 87,930 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,960 lots to 35,210 lots.
5. Central Bank: On April 17, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%, the same as before. On the same day, 170 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo expired.
6. Shibor: Overnight at 1.7230%, up 0.80 basis points. The 7-day trade was at 1.8160%, up 1.10 basis points. The 3-month report is 2.0490%, down 0.90 basis points.
7. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2349 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0649%, and the central parity of RMB was reported at 7.1025, up 0.0042%.
8. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On April 17, the trading volume of carbon emission allowance listing agreements in the national carbon market was 62,277 tons, with a turnover of 5.7934 million yuan and a closing price of 90.58 yuan/ton, up 1.13%.
abroad
9. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.32% to 37,961.80 points. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.97% to 2,584.29.
10. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed down 0.12% at 37,753.31, the Nasdaq closed down 1.15% at 15,683.37, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.58% at 5,022.21.
11. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.35% at 7,847.99 points, Germany's DAX30 closed up 0.02% at 17,770.02 points, and France's CAC40 closed up 0.62% at 7,981.51 points.
12. Gold: COMEX gold futures closed down 1.3% at $2376.6 an ounce.
13. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures closed down 3.13% at $82.69 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed down 3.03% at $87.29 per barrel.
14. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: up 3.65% to 1,844 points.
· The "hydrogen" wind is strong from the voyage ·
► Sichuan Daily: Recently, Sichuan Province held a working conference on further promoting the development and promotion of the whole green hydrogen industry chain. At the same time, it will take the most unconventional and precise support for the hydrogen energy industry, be application-oriented, give full play to resource advantages, and solve the stuck points and blocking points. It is worth noting that Sichuan is also another province following up the policy of exempting hydrogen energy vehicles from highway fees after Shandong. This also strengthens the market's expectations for further policy diffusion.
► Guosen Securities: In 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China will be 42.35MW, a year-on-year increase of 70%, and the cumulative sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will be 796, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. The stack is the core component of the fuel cell system, and the cost is relatively high. The stack maintains the energy output process of the entire fuel cell system, and largely determines the key factors such as the overall performance, life and cost of the fuel cell, accounting for 47% of the cost of the fuel cell system. Fuel cells are still in the early stage of commercialization, and the barriers to core components and materials are high, so it is recommended to pay attention to the companies with the top fuel cell system/stack shipments and the layout of core components and materials.
► Haitong International: Due to factors such as the cost performance of relatively pure electric vehicles still needs to be improved, and the infrastructure is not perfect, the global sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will decline by 30% in 2023, and the short-term market demand may be suppressed, and the cost performance still needs to be improved. However, considering that the National Development and Reform Commission and other plans will reach about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles in China by 2025, and deploy the construction of a number of hydrogen refueling stations. Judging from the actual situation of the current development of the industry, there is a big gap from achieving the planning goals. This also means that there is a possibility that the follow-up industrial policy will accelerate the implementation, or form a continuous catalyst for the hydrogen energy industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the long-term investment opportunities of related equipment manufacturers that have deployed hydrogen energy.
► Debang Securities: At present, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is growing rapidly, but the station ratio is relatively low (only about 30 vehicles/seat), as of April 12, 2024, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in operation in China is 433, an increase of 159 since the beginning of 2023, and the average price of hydrogen refueling station construction is about 8 million yuan/seat in terms of hydrogen refueling station construction cost. The global average station ratio is 60 vehicles per seat, of which the highest station ratio in the United States is 200 vehicles per seat. The focus of the research and development of hydrogen refueling technology is to increase the hydrogen charging rate. Air Liquide's current hydrogen charging rate is 3.6 kg/min and is expected to increase by 2-3 times in the next two years, and the U.S. Department of Energy's collaborative project is currently testing a hydrogen charge rate of 14 kg/min.