With the development of the auto market, the competition between new energy and fuel vehicles has entered a "historical moment", and the inflection point is imminent.
At this juncture, buying a car, which should have been an easy task, has become a difficult one.
On the one hand, there is the crazy surge of price reductions, which makes people feel that they will lose if they don't start. On the other hand, the value retention rate is declining at the speed of light, even if it is a little cheap due to the current price war, but the loss will come next year with a double amount, and the loss will be big at a moment's notice.
In this case, those who want to buy a car this year and next year should be careful, there are three types of cars that will have a serious "price drop", and they must buy rationally.
The first is the second-tier luxury car that has gone in the limelight and will be ignored
说二线豪车大势已去，这非危言耸听。
Judging from the market data in recent years, second-tier luxury cars have fallen heavily, taking the mainstay Lexus as an example, with sales of 225,000 units in 2020 and only 181,000 units left in 2023.
This is also the result of Lexus letting go of its reserve and cutting prices to survive.
As for Infiniti and Lincoln, not to mention, they can't bite a bite of cake even if they try their best to lie flat.
The reason is actually not complicated, to put it bluntly, the strength is not good.
Imagine what comes to mind when it comes to luxury cars in today's 2024 auto market.
For example, the high-end intelligent driving of the M9, the Yi Sifang motor of the U8, and the solid-state battery on the Zhiji L6.
And what does the second-tier luxury car have, a 2.0L engine, a CVT gearbox, and, of course, an old sofa that can accommodate your knees.
In other words, second-tier luxury cars really want to sell these old things for an antique price, but unfortunately they underestimate everyone's level of appreciation.
After all, it is a luxury car, and if you have to say that the product is not good, you can make do with face.
However, thirty years to the east of the river, thirty years to the west of the river.
From January to March this year, the data of luxury cars, after a search up and down, the top ten have the M7, the ideal L7, and the "bba", and none of the second-tier luxury cars have been squeezed up.
Luxury cars can't be on the luxury car list, which has explained the problem, and everyone has lost their charm and no longer believes in these brands.
The myth of second-tier luxury cars will also be dissolved.
According to this trend, it is not surprising that prices and depreciation will continue in the second half of the year.
Therefore, you must be quite rational when you buy these models, otherwise you must be prepared to be half of the residual value in the first year.
The second is pure electric vehicles with a range of less than 500 kilometers
The focus of the upgrade of pure electric vehicles in the past two years is to upgrade the battery.
With the rapid development of new technologies, the obsolescence of old technologies will inevitably accelerate.
Of course, it does not mean that old batteries cannot be used, but the taste is different when the marginal loss is taken into account.
For example, in the first two years, 600 kilometers of endurance was the top of the sky, and 500 kilometers is not shabby, at least it is a top match.
But with Xiaomi's entry into the game, the beggar version is now 700 kilometers, and the status of 500 kilometers models will be reduced immediately, and the depreciation rate will accelerate.
Judging from the speed of technological advancement, this trend is intensifying.
This year, the density of CATL's new generation of batteries exceeded 500Wh/kg, and the price of lithium batteries was also halved compared with last year.
That is, the volume is larger, the price is lower.
In the future, the tram will be equipped with a range of 700-800 kilometers, and the price will be lower.
Then the value of the 500-kilometer car has fallen off a cliff and it is self-evident.
Moreover, in 2026, solid-state batteries will be mass-produced on a large scale, with a range of 1,000 kilometers.
In addition, it should also be taken into account that today's models below 500 kilometers often only use a 400V platform, and the charging efficiency is low, which is not the same as that of 800V models.
Therefore, these platforms are outdated and the battery life is still low, and the depreciation rate will be the hardest hit area in this year and next year.
If you haven't already, don't buy it.
The third is the car that the manufacturer may go out of business
The car is still there, and the car company is gone, which is not uncommon today.
According to Bosch China, in 2017, there were as many as 60 new car companies, but today only 23 are still alive, and most of them are still on the verge of bankruptcy.
According to a dealer on the Internet, some new energy vehicle companies will directly ask them for a 6% discount if they have inventory problems. Imagine that at this moment, if you go to the store at the original price, it will not be a big loss.
And these car companies are also facing closure. Once it comes true, the follow-up car is also a lot of trouble.
These "bankrupt cars" are very niche, and parts are scarce, which is like some unpopular mobile phones, and mobile phone cases can't be bought.
Even if these mechanical parts can be replaced with great difficulty, the big difference between the tram and the oil car is that it is highly intelligent.
First of all, many models have canceled the physical buttons, and the control function is integrated in the central control screen.
Secondly, from Bluetooth keys to cross-terminal interconnection, music playback to intelligent driving, they are inseparable from the healthy operation of real-time networking and cloud computing services.
Once a car company goes out of business, these services are permanently shut down and cannot be repaired.
You only need to imagine how bad it feels to have no internet access on your phone or computer.
At hand, the lessons of the Weimar incident are still vivid.
Therefore, the car companies that intend to model have this kind of signage, it is best to wait and see and be cautious.
This year and next year, like the Cambrian period, is the explosion period of car market technology, and it is natural to see all kinds of new technologies competing for beauty.
But for those who want to buy a car, it is also necessary to look at which car is "obsolete and slower" to avoid marginal losses in advance.
From the perspective of the current technological advancement of the auto market, these three types of cars are already on the verge of "price drop", and it is best to take a detour with shoes.
If you have already started it, it is too late to throw it away now, otherwise it is estimated that you will only cry next year.