Abstract:Since 2015, the first domestic railway large-diameter shield machine has been rolled off the assembly line, with completely independent intellectual property rights, breaking the foreign technology monopoly for nearly a century. The continental shield machine industry has also been highly dependent on imports at the beginning, and now it is exported to the world, accounting for more than two-thirds of the global market share. Continental has become the world's largest market for shield machines and the largest producer of shield machines. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the application field of the continental shield machine, it has gradually expanded from the traditional urban rail field to emerging fields such as railway and highway tunnels, water conservancy and hydropower, pumped storage, municipal, energy coal mines, comprehensive pipe corridors and national defense specials, and accelerated the layout of key areas, key areas and key projects, and the scale of the industry has grown. In 2022, the market size of the mainland shield machine industry will be about 11.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%.
1. Definitions and Classification
Shield machine is the abbreviation of shield boring machine, is to complete tunnel excavation, slag removal, segment assembly operations under the protection of steel shell, by the main engine and supporting mechanical and electrical integration equipment, is a kind of mechanical energy to break the tunnel face, and the crushed material is continuously output backward to obtain the expected tunnel type, hole line machine. At the same time, the TBM is able to withstand the pressure from the formation, preventing the intrusion of groundwater or quicksand. According to the different stratum conditions and specific construction methods, the shield machine can be divided into hard rock shield machine, soft rock shield machine, soft soil shield machine, composite shield machine (hard rock soft soil shield machine); Among them, the open type can be subdivided into manual excavation shield, semi-mechanical excavation shield, mechanical excavation shield, semi-open type also has extrusion shield and grid shield, and closed type can be further divided into slurry pressure balance shield (including direct control type, indirect control type), earth pressure balance shield (including ordinary type, mud type, water type, mud type and other types).
Second, industry policies
At present, the development of the continental shield machine industry is facing a good policy environment. On the one hand, the state has introduced more detailed and standardized policies on the index management of the shield machine industry, promoting the standardized and systematic development of the mainland shield machine industry, and providing a strong impetus for product competitiveness and international market share improvement; on the other hand, the implementation of the national environmental protection policy will make the shield machine products with poor environmental benefits or the traditional manual drilling and blasting method construction face greater elimination pressure, creating a greater market demand for new environment-friendly shield machine products; The modernization of the industrial chain as the focus of industrial and information work, coupled with the country's implementation of the strategy of "new infrastructure" and "engineering construction going out", will have a positive impact on the growth of the market size of the shield machine industry.
Third, the development process
Compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, the mainland shield industry started late, according to the size and maturity of the scale of industrial development, the development process of the mainland shield industry is mainly divided into three stages: the initial exploration stage, the technology rich development stage and the industrialization stage. Nowadays, the domestic shield machine manufacturers have formed a set of R & D and design, technical services, processing and manufacturing, assembly and commissioning, construction feedback, repair and renovation, marketing and leasing in one of the shield machine industry chain, those with strong production capacity, complete equipment variety, advanced technology level of shield machine manufacturers, in the earth pressure balance series, slurry balance series, hard rock (TBM) series of shield machine research and development and manufacturing field to break the long-term monopoly of foreign enterprises, and gradually realize the mainland shield machine industry to independence, localization, The development of intelligent high-end industries.
Fourth, industry risks
1. Technology upgrading, substitution and technology loss risk
With the intensification of technological progress and industry competition, as well as the progress of construction methods and processes in the field of underground engineering, if the enterprises in the industry can not maintain the advantages of R&D and innovation and grasp the technological development direction of the industry in a timely manner, for example, with the popularization of informatization, intelligence and unmanned construction, if the enterprises in the industry fail to develop products that meet the market demand in a timely manner, they will face the risk of technology iteration and product substitution.
2. Macroeconomic and industry policy change risks
The products and services of the shield machine industry are mainly used in the construction of infrastructure such as railways, urban railways and other public transportation infrastructure (including roads, bridges, tunnels and other municipal works), and rely heavily on the state's investment in such construction. In recent years, the mainland government has systematically upgraded the existing transportation and municipal infrastructure, focused on key areas and weak links, maintained the strength of the infrastructure sector to make up for shortcomings, further improved infrastructure and public services, improved the quality of infrastructure supply, and issued a series of laws and regulations to support and encourage the development of public transportation and other related industries, and also issued relevant opinions to standardize the industry order and promote the development of the industry to match the macroeconomic cycle. However, there is still uncertainty in the future national policy on construction projects in related fields, and if the country's industrial policy in the field of infrastructure construction undergoes major adverse changes due to factors such as the macroeconomic situation, it may bring risks and impacts to the operation and profitability of enterprises in the industry.
3. The risk of high customer concentration
As the shield machine industry products are mainly oriented to the construction units and engineering construction units of the transportation infrastructure industry, affected by the characteristics of the main investment body of the transportation infrastructure industry in the mainland, the downstream customers of the industry are relatively concentrated, mainly for the China Railway Group and its controlled enterprises, China Railway, China Railway Construction Co., Ltd. as the representative of large-scale transportation infrastructure construction enterprises, as well as professional engineering equipment leasing companies. If the above-mentioned downstream customers have a serious decline in market demand, operating difficulties, and deterioration of financial status due to industrial policy adjustment, industry prosperity and other reasons, it will affect the company's profitability to a greater extent.
4. The risk of price fluctuations or supply interruption of parts and raw materials
The production and operation of shield machines require different kinds of parts and raw materials, and some of them, such as main bearings, rock drills, automatic control systems, 3D scanners and mortar pumps, mainly rely on foreign imports, and it is difficult to switch to new suppliers in a short period of time and at low cost. If there is a major adjustment or suspension of production or delivery capacity of these major parts suppliers, or there are major trade frictions and tariff increases, it may have an adverse impact on the stability, timeliness and price of the supply of parts and raw materials in the industry, and then affect the production and operation of enterprises in the industry.
Fifth, the industrial chain
The upstream of the industrial chain of the shield machine industry is the supply of materials and parts, mainly including steel, electrical system, hydraulic system, other parts and components, etc., of which the hydraulic system is the core of the shield machine, and most of the working mechanisms are mainly driven by the hydraulic system. In the field of municipal pipelines, affected by the characteristics of the main investment body of the mainland transportation infrastructure industry, the downstream customers of the industry are relatively concentrated, mainly for China Railway Group and the enterprises controlled by it, large-scale transportation infrastructure construction enterprises represented by China Railway and China Railway Construction Co., Ltd., as well as professional engineering equipment leasing companies.
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