In the regular season, the Timberwolves and the Suns played 3 times, and the Suns won 3 games by 47 points:
In a battle, the Timberwolves were back-to-back, in a scattered state, and were quickly defeated by the hot Suns. There's nothing to see in this one;
In the rematch, the Timberwolves, who did not have Towns at the time, had found a way to win, but they still lost quickly, sending seven turnovers in the first quarter. At the end of the game, the Suns made 18 turnovers and scored only 97 points, and the offensive efficiency was quite bad, but the Timberwolves also sent 18 turnovers and scored 87 points in the game, and the offensive efficiency was unbearable;
The three-match ended the regular season with Downs returning. This game is about the final standings, and the Timberwolves won't want to win. As a result, the Timberwolves made 11 turnovers in the first quarter, can you believe it? While Beal played his masterpiece of the season, the Timberwolves didn't play their own offense.
It's hard to judge the regular season matchups in this setup. Compared with the boatman written before, the personnel situation of the regular season on Wolf Day is more indicative, especially in the last game of the season, and the two sides are basically complete lineups. But every time it was a big crushing game, the Timberwolves not only couldn't defend it, but they couldn't defend against the Suns. The Suns are not a very aggressive team defensively, and the scene of the Timberwolves' large number of turnovers in the last two games is too extreme, which gives people a somewhat unreal look.
After considering the configuration characteristics of both sides, I generally believe that some of the difficulties of the Timberwolves against the Suns will lead to the playoffs.
Let's start by recapping why the Suns aren't as strong as they thought they were after last year's offseason reinforcement.
The main problem of the Suns' regular season this season is that the Big Three have overlapping functions, and a lot of resources are invested in the "ball-handling scorer", resulting in a lack of other resources needed to build the team. As a result, the Suns have a weak rotation and a lack of rich play, with core players and fringe puzzles not being able to be kneaded. Beal came late in form and didn't contribute much in the middle of the season.
In addition, the Suns' style of play is biased towards jump shots, the punishment of the paint area mainly depends on frontcourt rebounds, the configuration of big center + single forward + multiple guards, and the limitations on the defensive end are also large, these factors make the Suns' play unstable, the lack of dominance in ordinary playoff teams, and the unexpected rollover of tank teams is also a lot.
But the Sun is undoubtedly strong in two abilities:
First, the ability to play the center squatting pit. Although the Suns only rank 8th in the league in the number of shots made with the ball, they are 1st in the league in terms of shooting percentage and effective shooting percentage with the ball. Their ability to shoot long two-point shooting with the ball is the best in the league, and the long two-point area is often a three-point zone where the leader can't catch up behind and the center can't interfere with in front of the center;
Second, there is no problem with the space in the Suns' starting lineup. All four of Nurkic are shooters, and are the lethal shooters of the Big Three + Allen with a three-point shooting rate of 46.1% this season.
It seems that the Suns' offense is very aimed at the big center. Defending against the Suns as a starter requires the mobility of the center, as well as overall rotation and aggression with the ball — note that we're talking about the Suns starters — and then forcing the Suns to keep the ball out and test their control turnovers. In addition, Nurkic can play against heavy centers on the defensive end, and it looks like the Suns are building a team against the Nuggets on both offensive and defensive ends.
It makes perfect sense for the Suns to use the Nuggets as a hypothetical opponent last summer. And this specialization also has some subtle effects after encountering the timberwolves.
Let's take a look at the defensive characteristics of the Timberwolves' starters.
The Timberwolves' defensive strengths are many, but the core focus is still Gobert, and his ability to change the opponent's shooting distribution is still exaggerated. In the regular season, the Timberwolves ranked third in the league in the frequency of near-basket and long-two-point shots, and they didn't give opponents too many basket and corner shots, and limited opponents to the second and fourth lowest basket shooting percentages in the league, respectively, which is a reflection of the value of top basket protectors. In the long two-point and arc top areas that are usually not easy to cover by the basket guards, the Timberwolves have top leaders to cover, and the pursuit of Jayden, Huazi and others can effectively interfere with the performance of the blockers in these areas. The Timberwolves have the second-lowest two-point shooting percentage in the league and the fourth-lowest three-point shooting percentage in the league.
The Timberwolves have two starting defensive weaknesses. One is Downs, the other is Conley Sr. The former, after all, is on the line in size and physicality, and has also improved defensively this season, and it is usually not a problem to play against a low-play forward. Conley's lead defense, regular point guard, and low-play wing are also completely OK.
After meeting the Suns, the defensive characteristics of the Timberwolves' starters were targeted. The regular season trilogy of the two teams, Huazi led Durant, and Jaden led Booker, which refers to the leading and defensive effect of the previous two teams.
But there are two key influencing factors here:
One is that Nurkic's cover quality is too high. The leader is a little bit of a defender, which makes the Timberwolves have blind spots at the top of the arc and in the long two-point area to interfere with shooting;
The second is that the defense of the other two points on the outside line is too bad.
Conley was the most hated match between the two teams in the trilogy. Beal found a sense at the end of the season that he had an absolute advantage over Conley in terms of size and athleticism, and that point would not be difficult to play in the playoffs.
Downs was also a disaster for Aaron. Towns wants to face a lethal shooter to support the defense, which is too difficult, and this also means that the Timberwolves need more 2 defenses and 2 defenses on the line, and don't expect too much support from the No. 4 position. What's even more uncomfortable is that the Suns will lead Downs to the line, Nurkic's cover, one of the Big Three's ball-holding shots, and Allen's outside and fixed-point breakthroughs, even if Gobert can deal with it, Downs is enough to choke.
In fact, the Timberwolves started on the defensive end, and there were 4 sets of misalignments at the beginning, but Jaden as the forward defensive guard Booker, and Huazi as the guard defensive forward Durant, which are all counterpoints that the Timberwolves think are more effective. But the other two sets of misalignments can really hurt the Timberwolves defense.
In turn, the Suns defended the Timberwolves, and the starting hand was also misplaced. Dream Green says Durant needs to take over Huazi at some point in the series for the Suns to get through — so who is right about Towns?
Durant's defense against Towns is of course a set of misalignments, even if Durant is tall, Towns is heavier after all. Bill's anti-Huazi is not too comfortable to counterpoint.
However, judging from the trilogy of the two teams, the Suns' handling of the misplaced defense is relatively decisive. Booker in the low post will definitely be on the pinch, and the pick-and-roll will definitely shrink the wings, and Booker, who is against Jaden, has done a lot of things in the help defense, and he proved in the playoffs last year that he can really make some impact in the help defense in full force mode.
In the starting stage, the Suns' defense against the Timberwolves is relatively clear - more local defense and less defense, testing the Timberwolves' handling control, passing and receiving quality and bottom corner three-point. The Timberwolves have the No. 1 three-point shooting rate in the league, but the three-point production is not high, and the turnover rate is very high. His more efficient two-pointer in the regular season will be put to the test in a playoff environment.
Overall, I think the offensive and defensive game between the starting lineups on both sides will test the Timberwolves - their defensive execution, ball handling, and open three-point response. The Suns offense doesn't need to change its habits, and the defense has room to make up for it with effort because the opponent has more shooting and handling flaws.
Looking at it this way, the sun has a big advantage?
The Suns' hidden danger is that when they get into the transition, the quality of the cover will drop (Eubanks or Young), and they will also mix in the space points that the opponent is not afraid of (O'Neal, Bolbol), and at this time, the Wolves' defensive advantage will have room to shine. Such a sun is like a broken acupuncture point, and the wolf's internal and external offensive and defensive ends can be combined.
The Suns' approach is to start hard and reduce the connection time. We've seen Durant and Booker in the past with little rest in the playoffs. However, Nurkic's time is not something that can be added to the game, and his last two playoff trips have averaged 32.3 minutes and 28.9 minutes per game, respectively, and the Trail Blazers' loss to the Nuggets in '21 was partly due to Nurkic's average of five fouls per game. This season, Nurkic has been out of six fouls in the regular season and has been in foul trouble in the three-match against the Timberwolves, with five fouls in 26 minutes. When Nurkic wasn't on the court, Eubanks covered up and wiped out my losing style, which was a proper way to give Gobert experience.
In a way, the outcome of this round of the series was determined by Nurkic's foul count.
He's guaranteed at least 30 minutes a game, and I think there's a lot of hope in the sun.
And he committed 2 offenses in one quarter, 3 offenses in the second quarter, and 4 offenses in the third quarter, which is hard to say.
Of course, the Suns still have O'Neal's five-outside lineup change at the top five, but Gobert's pressure on O'Neal may not be that great, and even the Timberwolves can choose to change defenses. On the other hand, the Suns' extremely thin interior defense may not be able to withstand the impact of the Timberwolves' twin towers and Huazi.
Finally, a few words about Jaden McDaniels.
If Nurkic is the eye of the Suns, then Jaden is the X-factor of the Timberwolves. His effects can be extreme. When the defense can be used, he will cause Booker a lot of problems, but in the stage when he can't make it (such as being blocked by a screen, the Suns are mainly playing Beal and Durant), his defense may not be able to fill the limitations of handling the ball and space.
The Timberwolves have to be a little more extreme offensively and defensively, and they have to rush fiercely on the fast break, put pressure on the defense all over the court, and consume the Suns before the ball carrier approaches the three-point line to punish the Suns for not having a point guard. The Timberwolves are a tougher, more dynamic team, and they have to make those strengths shine through.
In addition, will the Tianji Jockey Club be a dark tactic that is interesting for the Timberwolves to beat the Suns?
How about using space (Towns + Gobert + Walker) to control Nurkic and defense (Gobert) to control the Suns bench?
If the Timberwolves series fall into passivity, maybe we'll see a full-space version of the Timberwolves later in the series.
Overall, if Nurkic's foul numbers are a human figure, I think this round is the advantage of the Suns.