In 2022, the United States will engage in a "CHIPS Act" bill, proposing a subsidy plan of 52.7 billion US dollars, of which 39 billion US dollars (about 282.1 billion yuan) will be used as direct grants, and the other more than 10 billion will be used as tax incentives.
This subsidy is quite generous, but the main subsidy is for enterprises involved in the return of advanced manufacturing, and the intention of the United States is obvious, wanting to revive the American chip manufacturing industry so that the United States can increase its production capacity in chip manufacturing.
However, behind this production capacity increase, the United States still has its own plan, that is, its own chip subsidies, only for advanced chips, from the perspective of the US government, the scale of capital investment in the construction of factories is large enough, and the process must be advanced enough.
Therefore, the companies currently receiving subsidies in the United States, such as Samsung, TSMC, Intel, GF, etc., are all focusing on advanced chip manufacturing.
TSMC plans to build three factories, namely 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm, with a total investment of $65 billion, completely hugging the thigh of the United States, and the United States will give TSMC $6.6 billion in direct subsidies and $5 billion in loans.
Samsung also plans to invest $44 billion in the United States to build a 3nm/2nm chip factory, and the United States has given Samsung $6 billion to welcome Samsung's arrival.
Intel plans to achieve 2nm in 2024 and intel10A process in 2025......
Anyway, for the United States, as long as chip companies put advanced chips in the United States, then the United States will give money, and if you dare to build it, I will dare to pay for it.
However, for mature chips, the United States does not care so much, I think, in the minds of the United States, mature chips, then let China make them, the United States does not care.
Why doesn't the United States care about mature chips? Isn't it that mature chips account for as much as 70 percent of all chips, while advanced chips account for up to 30 percent? The reason is that mature chips are not so important, and the United States does not care about the amount that can be produced.
At present, there are only three advanced chip companies that can produce chips, such as Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, but mature chips, almost the top 10 chip foundries, can be made, the number is large, the market is large, and the United States may not be able to control it.
Second, at present, China's supply chain is developing rapidly, and the mature chip supply chain should soon be able to self-sufficient, and the United States is also blocking mature chips, isn't it boring to find itself? When the time comes, all domestic substitution will occur, so what about those semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the United States? Anyway, mature chips are not so critical, so they must make their own enterprises make money, and they can also suppress China's own supply chain.
Third, even if the United States wants to roll up mature chip production capacity, it can't roll China, after all, China is rich in basic resources, sound industrial system, and more importantly, sufficient labor and low cost, according to the previous CEO of PSMC, the global chip operating cost, Chinese mainland is the lowest, what does the United States take to fight with China?
Therefore, for the United States, as long as advanced chips are made in the United States, it is enough to master high-end chips by itself, so that China cannot make advanced chips, it is enough to handle it by itself, and as for mature chips, let China make them themselves.
Therefore, there is a high probability that in the future, the United States will not target mature chips, but only advanced chips, and as long as we get the manufacturing of advanced chips, then the ban will become waste paper.