Investment advisory support|Yu Xiaoming, editor|Gu Jinfeng
Source: Jufeng Investment Advisory, Good Stock Application
Solid-state batteries are typical representatives of new quality productivity and have a national strategic height. Low-altitude economic policies and industrial catalysis continue, and the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating. Bringing a solid-state battery leader today, let's take a look at the company's investment logic.
Solid-state batteries are typical representatives of new quality productivity and have a national strategic height
According to the 2024 government work report, "actively cultivating emerging industries and future industries" is one of the important starting points for the development of new quality productivity, which should not only consolidate the leading advantages of advantageous industries, but also accelerate the development of cutting-edge emerging industries and new growth engines. Compared with traditional liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have obvious advantages in terms of energy density and safety, and are considered to be the next generation of innovative technologies in the lithium battery industry. On the one hand, solid-state batteries, as a lithium battery technology route, can consolidate the leading position of lithium batteries, an existing advantageous industry in mainland China. On the other hand, car companies, R&D institutions, and battery companies in China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries around the world are actively deploying and have formed a trend of competition.
The whole industry chain has made great efforts to layout, and the industrialization trend of solid-state batteries has been determined
International automakers, including Toyota, Nissan, BMW, and Ford, plan to launch electric vehicles equipped with all-solid-state batteries in 2025~2030, and cooperate with battery companies to accelerate the implementation of solid-state batteries. Domestic: Weilan New Energy's shareholders include NIO, Geely, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc., Qingtao Energy has received investment from SAIC, BAIC and GAC, and Changan Automobile has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Ganfeng Lithium. Overseas: Solid Power received investment from BMW, Ford and Hyundai, while Quantum Scape received investment from Volkswagen. On the battery side, a number of leading companies such as CATL and BYD in China, LG, Samsung, SK On and other leading companies have relevant layouts in technology research and development and patent reserves. For example, Dangsheng Technology disclosed in its annual report that the supply share of ultra-high nickel products in solid-state battery customers such as Huineng, Qingtao, Weilan New Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium Battery has increased significantly, and has been successfully used in solid-state models of global first-tier car companies such as SAIC Motor and VinFast in Vietnam. With the cooperation of car companies, battery companies and material companies, the development trend of solid-state batteries has been determined, and the industrialization process is also expected to accelerate.
The news surface is constantly catalyzed, bringing opportunities in the window period of new technologies
Since the end of last year, there have been a number of catalytic events in the technological progress and commercial application of semi-solid-state batteries. In the field of automobiles, in December 23, NIO Li Bin measured that ET7 was equipped with Weilan semi-solid-state battery to achieve 1000 km range; in February 24, Huineng announced the completion of a solid-state battery mass production line; GAC Aian Haobo announced the latest research and development progress of solid-state batteries, and the energy density has exceeded 350Wh/ kg, in 2026, it will achieve mass production of all-solid-state batteries, in early March, Funeng Technology signed a contract with FAW Jiefang to introduce semi-solid-state batteries into commercial vehicle products, at the end of March, QuantumScape announced the start of delivery of Alpha-2 solid-state battery prototypes, with the ultimate goal of commercializing vehicles, and SAIC announced that the upcoming Zhiji L6 will be equipped with the industry's first mass-produced quasi-900V ultra-fast charging solid-state battery. In addition, consumer electronics and eVTOL have high requirements for safety and energy density, and are not sensitive to cost, which may also become a breakthrough point in the application of solid-state batteries.
Bringing a solid-state battery leader today, let's take a look at the company's investment logic.
1. The profitability of the company's main business has been improved, and with the acceleration of the application of solid-state battery technology route, the company will also accelerate the construction of related product production lines.
2. The new product line has accelerated its growth, and the main regional markets are expected to maintain good growth in 24 years.
3. Institutions are optimistic that net profit is expected to continue to maintain good growth in the next three years.
Introduction and main business of Guansheng shares
Guansheng Co., Ltd. has been focusing on the field of automotive chassis system parts for more than 30 years and is a comprehensive service provider of the whole value chain. Products include constant velocity universal joints, drive shaft assemblies, hub bearing units, rubber shock absorber series, steering and suspension parts, shock absorber series, etc. Relying on the global intelligent supply chain system built by the company, the global marketing network covers more than 120 countries and regions in the global market, covering most of the world's automobile ownership, and realizes localized distribution in many countries. As an important carrier of the global intelligent supply chain system, the global warehouse network system has built the construction of global warehouse network infrastructure such as the supply chain center in China, two warehousing centers in the east and west of the United States, a European warehousing center, a European circulation processing center, and a Mexican warehousing center. The company has always adhered to the concept of green development, and will gradually increase R&D investment in chassis system parts for new energy vehicles in the future, and cooperate deeply with new energy OEMs to jointly develop green, low-carbon and energy-saving auto parts that meet market demand and represent the forefront of technology.
The concept of Guansheng shares
Solid-state batteries, Zhejiang plate, auto parts, convertible bonds, depreciation benefits, yesterday's touch board, new energy vehicles, Huawei automobiles.
What is the status of Guansheng shares in the industry?
From the perspective of operating income, Guansheng shares are lower than the industry average, ranking 96th in the industry.
What is the basic situation of Guansheng shares?
The total share capital of Guansheng shares is 170 million shares, of which the number of outstanding A shares is 170 million shares. As of April 17, the total market capitalization was 4,056.9 million yuan, the circulating market value was 4,056.7 million yuan, and the price-earnings ratio was 14.27. The number of shareholders is 11,200. The largest shareholder is Zhou Jiaru, with the top ten shareholders accounting for 63.03%.
What about the financial data of Guansheng shares?
According to the 2023 annual report, the total revenue of Guansheng Co., Ltd. was 894 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.32% in total revenue and a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in attributable net profit.
As of December 31, 2023, the operating income of auto parts was 3.165 billion yuan, with a revenue ratio of 99.53%, and by product, the operating income of transmission shaft assembly was 1.209 billion yuan, with a revenue ratio of 38.02%.
Executive Profile:
Zhou Jiaru: male, born in 1953, Chinese nationality, with permanent residency in the United States, bachelor degree, served as the chairman and general manager of the company from 1999 to February 2021, and is currently the chairman of the company, and concurrently serves as the executive director of Wenzhou Dachengbang Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. and the supervisor of Wenzhou Weijing Only Enterprise Management Co., Ltd.
Cinda Securities: The profitability of Guansheng's main business has improved, and the solid-state battery business has accelerated
On March 30, the company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 3.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +8.12%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 284 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +19.48%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +20.02%. The company's gross sales margin in 2023 will be 26.97%, +4.00pct year-on-year, and the net profit margin will be 8.93%, +0.84pct year-on-year. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The company's main business operation is stable, and the profit margin of export advantages has increased year-on-year
In 2023Q4, the company's revenue was 894 million yuan, +16.32% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, +10.80% year-on-year, -12.82% month-on-month, gross profit margin was 25.41%, +1.16pct year-on-year, -5.15pct month-on-month, and net profit margin was 7.6%, -0.41pct year-on-year, -2.38pct month-on-month. The company's gross profit margin decreased quarter-on-quarter in 23Q4, mainly due to the appreciation of RMB compared with Q3. The company's annual profitability has increased significantly, mainly due to the improvement of channel efficiency, foreign exchange income, and the decline in raw material prices in the context of the company's new product expansion.
The expense ratio remains stable overall, and R&D investment in solid-state batteries is expected to increase
From the perspective of expense ratio, the company's annual sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 6.11%, 6.36%, and 3.29% respectively, which were +0.82pct/+0.54pct/flat year-on-year, and the company's overall cost control ability was strong. As the company enters the field of solid-state batteries, the related R&D investment is expected to increase in 24 years.
The new product line is accelerating, and the main regional markets are expected to maintain good growth in 24 years
The company's drive shaft assembly, corner module, and other product lines are growing rapidly, and the company's assembly products and new product lines with higher unit prices are accelerating their expansion, which is expected to continue to fulfill the growth logic of expanding categories. In terms of regions, the company's sales in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Africa, and domestic accounted for 20%, 8%, 41%, 20%, and 11% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +29.07%, -36.24%, +8.11%, +12.42%, and 25.50%, respectively, and gross profit margins of 33.05%, 21.71%, 29.44%, 21.73%, and 20.60% respectively The North American region is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the first half of 24 years due to the high growth rate of replenishment demand, and the decline in the South American market is mainly affected by the local macro environment, and we expect a strong improvement in 24 years.
The warehousing network has been continuously updated and upgraded, and the supply chain management efficiency and inventory structure have been further optimized
The company's overseas warehouses have officially entered stable operation, 1) in terms of supply chain expansion, the company has launched the Southeast Asia supply chain center project, upgrading the warehouse centers in North America, Mexico and other places, which is expected to further improve the inventory structure; 2) promoting digital construction, cooperating with JD.com to develop a big data model Jinghui system, effectively improving the efficiency of supply chain management; 3) Launching the "global buying" survey, which is expected to achieve "global buying and global selling" in the future The strategic layout is expected to further expand the convenience and cost advantage of product supply and improve operational efficiency.
The implementation progress of solid-state battery business is expected to accelerate
The company and Dongchi New Energy jointly invested in the establishment of a joint venture company, engaged in the research and development and sales of solid-state batteries, the company is expected to smoothly enter the new energy industry layout, fully respond to the national "double carbon" strategic requirements, is expected to open up the company's second growth curve outside the automotive aftermarket. With the acceleration of the application of solid-state battery technology route, the company will also accelerate the construction of related product production lines. Pay attention to Jufeng Investment Advisor (jfinfo)/good stock application, and the analysis and research report of the leading target of "Institutional Research and Selection" is waiting for you to get!
Enlightenment Today:
Focus on buying companies that are at an unfavorable position, i.e., buying companies whose value has been misjudged by the market as a whole, leaving their stock prices well below their intrinsic value. – Philip Fisher
Risk Warning:
Macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations, fluctuations in the shipping environment, overseas demand in the aftermarket is less than expected, etc., and the promotion and implementation of solid-state battery investment projects are less than expected.
Source:
Shanghai Securities-Power Equipment and New Energy Industry Weekly: Low-altitude economic policies and industrial catalysis continue, and the industrialization of solid-state batteries accelerates - 20240406
Cinda Securities-Guansheng Shares-605088. SH-The profitability of the main business has improved, and the solid-state battery business has accelerated-20240402
(Investment advisory support: Yu Xiaoming, practicing certificate: A0680622030012)
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss