The recent situation in the Middle East is undoubtedly extremely unfavorable for the United States. Iran's ballistic missile strikes against Israel penetrated in one fell swoop through the Israeli air defense network that the United States, Britain, and Jordan had joined hands to assist in defense, and finally succeeded in penetrating and hitting a number of important military targets in Israel.
It was also the largest bombing of Israel itself in years, demonstrating to the world that Iran has the confidence and ability to launch a major military strike against Israel.
This scene is bound to go down in the history of the Middle East world
In the aftermath of the incident, the outside world has been most concerned about whether Israel will retaliate further against Iran. Although Iran's ballistic missile strike was caused by Israel's extremely irresponsible and flagrant violation of international conventions, it was a reasonable counterattack by Iran in exercising its right to self-defense under the framework of international conventions.
However, given Israel's unscrupulous approach to retribution and the current difficult environment at home and abroad, it is undeniable that Israel's retaliation against Iran is very likely to lead to further escalation of the conflict. Of course, the United States, which is most anxious about this issue, is trying its best to avoid further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and does not want to see Israel make trouble again in any case.
In order to control the current situation in the Middle East, the United States has contacted China long ago, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken personally came forward to have a telephone conversation with mainland Foreign Minister Wang Yi, hoping that China can "persuade Iran" to be patient and not retaliate against Israel. After asking China for help to no avail, and Iran had already finished its substantive retaliation against Israel, the United States once again contacted Iran directly and made even more outrageous conditions.
The United States wants Iran to "give Israel a face"
According to the Middle East media "Cradle", the United States has contacted Iran through the "middleman" channel, asking Iran to allow Israel to carry out a symbolic strike against Iran in order to save Israel's face. The Iranian side immediately rejected this request from the United States.
Cradle Newspaper report page
Subsequently, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri made it clear that "Israel needs to know that if it makes another mistake, there will not be 12 days to prepare, and Iran will respond in seconds, not days or hours." ”
He stressed that if Israel dares to fight again, then Iran will not give Israel a second chance, and Iran's counterattack will be unprecedentedly powerful, far more powerful than the first ballistic missile strike on Israel itself.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri
It is also important to note that Iran's response to the U.S. request was not made through diplomatic channels, but through Iran's official armed force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, to the Swiss envoy to Tehran and then to the United States. And made it clear that the move is intended to send a strong warning to the United States.
The result is obvious: In order to "save face" for Israel, the United States has made a diplomatic move to seek peace with Iran in private. Not to mention the fact that the Iranians publicly exposed this private "middleman" style diplomatic representation, but also was openly rejected and responded strongly, it can be said that all the "face" has been lost.
The status quo inside Israel
The reason why the United States wants to seek peace with Iran in private is nothing more than Israel's ability to control and exert pressure, which is so bad that it is impossible to see it. Although in the early days after the Iranian missile strike on Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear at one point after a phone call with US President Joe Biden that he had canceled retaliation against Iran.
But a few days later, Netanyahu publicly stated that the cancellation was only "immediate retaliation against Iran", and did not mean that Israel would not retaliate in the future.
The implication is simple: this matter cannot be left at that, and Israel still has to take further retaliatory measures against Iran.
On the other hand, at Israel's wartime cabinet meeting, all Israeli ministerial-level officials present at the meeting, including Defense Secretary Gallant, who had previously been exposed to major conflicts with Netanyahu, agreed that additional retaliation against Iran was necessary. The wartime cabinet in power was so radical that so did the public opinion at the bottom of Israel.
Even the Israeli authorities and the United States, immediately after the Iranian missile strike, unanimously announced that "the interception rate is as high as 99 percent." But the Israelis themselves can see the scene of the missile falling and exploding, and they can really see the Iranian missile flying over Jerusalem like a meteor shower.
When countless Israelis can see this scene when they look up, it is obviously useless to talk about "the interception rate is as high as 99%".
It is obviously neither convincing nor credible to say that "the interception rate is as high as 99 percent" to these Israelis who witnessed the bombing.
As a direct result of this, public opinion at the bottom of Israel dislikes the Netanyahu regime as "too weak" and calls for strong measures to retaliate against Iran.
The dual pressure of the wartime cabinet and the public opinion at the bottom forced Netanyahu to choose between his "political life" and even his "physical life" and "taking strong measures to retaliate against Iran".
Israeli Wartime Cabinet Meeting
In this case, it should be said that the answer is obvious. A number of high-ranking Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, are now doing their best to avoid a real defeat and a post-mortem reckoning.
And the direct means to achieve this goal is for those in power to use their power to carry on the war with all their might until the situation is turned around and won. How can we win the war? Israel itself, which cannot even defeat Hamas, will certainly not be able to do so. There is only one answer - drag the United States into the water, so that the American military will once again go to the Middle East to help Israel in the war.
Gallant with Netanyahu
So we can see that even between Netanyahu and Gallant, there are serious irreconcilable contradictions. During the previous war in Gaza, there was a lot of tension, and there was almost a big fight in the wartime cabinet meeting.
According to a report by Israel's largest newspaper, Novaya Izvestia, before leaving, Gallant also left Netanyahu with cruel words such as "next time I will bring the Golani Brigade to settle accounts with you".
But as it stands, Netanyahu and Gallant, as well as a number of senior wartime cabinet officials in Israel, are more afraid of being defeated than squabbled.
In order to prevent the arrival of this day, these high-ranking Israeli officials, who are facing imprisonment, have temporarily shelved their personal contradictions and joined the group to keep warm to solve the collective problem.
Making concerted efforts to find a way to drag the United States into the water and resolve the danger of defeat and win the war first has become the "consensus" of Israel's wartime cabinets, including Netanyahu.
The thorny troubles facing the United States
In the face of an internally united Israeli authorities that focus their main thoughts and energies on "how to drag the United States into the water and cover for themselves," one can imagine how tricky the troubles facing the United States are.
Biden with Netanyahu
As far as the United States is concerned, Israel today is the last strategic pillar for the United States to maintain its Middle East strategy and maintain the "petrodollar" system, and there is absolutely no room for failure, and the "petrodollar" system is the core pillar of US hegemony that is as important as military hegemony, and is the "foundation for the founding of the United States" today.
To put it bluntly, "if Israel exists, its hegemony will exist, and if Israel is destroyed, its hegemony will collapse." This is the real status quo that the United States is currently facing, and the United States and Israel are already in a literal "symbiotic relationship."
And this is precisely the fundamental reason why the Israeli authorities have repeatedly used it to "wag the dog by the tail" against the United States, constantly trying to force the United States to its end, and why they have no fear of being punished by the United States.
The reality facing the Biden administration is that it is impossible to support Israel without aid, guarantee, and support, which will shake the foundation of the United States and face the risk of the collapse of hegemony;
This will directly lead to the United States exhausting the last vestige of its available global strategic reserve strength, and smashing all the forces that it had accumulated to "suppress Russia and contain China", especially military power, into the bottomless pit of the Middle East to save Israel. The final result is nothing more than the collapse of the global strategy of the United States, and the loss of the capital to confront China and Russia and the "decisive battle in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region."
Compared with the collapse of the hegemony that completely abandoned Israel and led to a "quick and violent death", the strategic collapse is really a "slow death" for the United States. Slow death is also better than a quick death, and at least there is more time to maneuver, which is a more rational and more in line with any similar situation at the end of the empire.
Therefore, we can see that the ultimate choice of the United States in this context is to take the path of "slow death". Even if it is constantly forced by Israel, and even if there is a huge risk of being dragged into the water by Israel and returning to the Middle East battlefield, the United States today has no choice but to take Israel at all.
We can only put down the "dignity of hegemony", ignore the face of the so-called "leader and defender of the free world", and find an intermediary in private to make peace with Iran, which has repeatedly blocked and threatened to suppress in the past.
As a result, the peace request did not come to fruition, but was publicly exposed by the Iranians, who sternly rejected it with a strong stance. In the end, it has given Iran a wave of prestige in the Middle East world and further consolidated Iran's long-standing image as an "anti-American leader in the Middle East". The leadership and discourse of the "Arc of Resistance" can also be strengthened and powerful.
As the influence and discourse power of the United States in the Middle East and even the world continue to weaken, this kind of situation of seeking peace with Iran instead of seeking peace will only increase and increase in the future.
"A night when no Palestinian children were killed", Iran's actions have greatly enhanced its influence and prestige
This is essentially a serious decline in the bargaining power of the United States over its allies, which has forced the United States to change its strategy and negotiate terms with potential imaginary enemies. However, under the US-style hegemonism, the absolutely hostile strategy of "exerting maximum pressure, not ceaselessly, and not believing in one's words" has basically eliminated potential imaginary enemies and accepted the possibility of unattractive conditions offered by the United States.
What should be the next way to go, this is the grassroots group of politicians in the United States, and it is a matter of life and death that they should think about.
Some of the content in the article is sourced:
Israel is ready to do it丨Beijing Daily
The U.S. Secretary of State told Israel that it does not want to see the situation escalate further