The China Securities Regulatory Commission promptly set things right, prescribed the right medicine, and the market immediately saw results, starting a wave of retaliatory rebound, and the market suddenly entered the scorching summer from the cold winter of wind and snow. Today, individual stocks rose sharply across the board, and it was the ascension of chickens and dogs. The weights remained silent in the morning, and the weights began to break out in the afternoon, and the market formed a theme to lead the rise, and the weights pushed the index to collectively soar.
From the general rise in the morning to the big rise in the afternoon, the reason for the sudden change in the situation today is naturally very clear. It is because of the timely speech of the China Securities Regulatory Commission last night that dispelled the market's doubts and the market regained confidence. To tell the truth, the new rules for market delisting have been amplified, creating panic, and there are obviously many unreasonable places, but they have been successfully cut by big funds.
Domestic capital that has been smashing the market suddenly increased its position sharply, and today it has increased its position by more than 27 billion, which is rare for a long time, but foreign capital is not interested, and there has been a small net outflow in the case of the overall surge in the market, which is somewhat incomprehensible, but in the face of the big rise, I dare not be too optimistic, and there are still some worries about the next market:
1. Plummeting to soaring, this is completely a release of emotions, not the normal rhythm of the market.
If there is no timely statement by the CSRC last night, will the market have such a rebound, and even if there will be a rebound, it is likely to fall below 3000 points before there will be a rebound.
Yesterday, there were more than 5,000 stocks rose, today there were more than 5,000 rose, yesterday there were more than 700 down limits, today there are more than 200 limits, more than 1,800 rose more than 7%, although there is no regain of lost ground, but this rebound is very large, according to the general law, this general rise is difficult to sustain, the next day will form a greater differentiation.
The weight in the morning is relatively stable, and in the afternoon the weight begins to exert force, and the theme not only does not ebb and flow, but goes to the next level.
The reason for today's sharp rise is that institutions have smashed the market sharply before and then to today's sharp inflow, and in the first two days, it was mainly institutions that sold small and micro cap stocks sharply, smashed the stock price down, and then bought at a low level, making a lot of money.
Obviously, the market is being played by institutions in the palm of the stock, tomorrow the institution will not sell again, I think this possibility is very likely, after all, the new rules on dividends and delisting for small and micro cap stocks to form a long-term unfavorable situation, institutions for this kind of varieties more to take the strategy of pulling up and shipping.
Foreign capital is the most savvy capital in this market, why is it that foreign capital is not significantly long today, but there is a small net outflow.
The trend of comprehensive institutional funds is still not too optimistic about the short-term market, at least after today's surge.
We have always been thinking very accurately, dare to enter the market when it falls sharply and falls sharply, rises sharply, and leaves the market when it rises sharply. Small rises and small falls, stick to it. But many people can't. When the market rises, desperately chase the rise, firmly bullish on the market, once the fall immediately shakes confidence, immediately said that it will continue to fall, every time after the fact, I understand, are reflecting. But it never changed. So how to make money, after seeing today's big rise, I immediately looked long, immediately thought that the next big rise, and immediately linked the market with the new "National Nine Articles", thinking that this is a big positive for the capital market. Then why don't you dare to increase your position on Monday and Tuesday, when it rises, it will be regarded as good, and when it falls, it will be said that it is good and useless.
If you see a good thing and it will rise immediately, and if it is bad and fall immediately, then this market is not simple, and anyone can make money.
2. The short-term market is worrying for the following two reasons:
First, foreign capital is actually unwilling to enter the market today, don't think that foreign capital is nothing great because of today's domestic capital is long, and the A-share market will still rise without foreign capital. In fact, domestic investors have always been big shorts, and it is not credible to go long occasionally. Foreign capital is smart money, and most of the time the role of the weather vane is obvious, and the power behind foreign capital cannot be ignored. Due to the delay in the US dollar interest rate cut, the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still very high, and the momentum of foreign capital to go long is not abundant.
Second, the recovery of market confidence is slow, there is a lot of short-selling momentum in this market, and the sharp fall in the past two days has indeed made us see, once the big rise is over, there will be funds at any time to smash the market.
Of course, for the medium and long-term market, I am full of confidence, first, there is an attitude of economic recovery to further strengthen, the first quarter of 5.3% growth target is enough for us to have the confidence to achieve the annual growth rate of 5%, and second, the new "national nine" escort for the capital market. But it is important to distinguish between long-term positives and short-term ups and downs. Don't just because there is the guidance of the "National Nine Articles", you can call for wind and rain in the short term.
We can't forget it soon, we must calm down, think about what the big fall has given us, how we need to change our future investments, we can't heal the scars and forget the pain, and then fall in the same place countless times. You win ten times in the market, and one defeat will knock you back into shape. Have you ever thought about how long it will take to earn back your recent losses, or how long it will take to earn them back, and it is also possible that the losses in a few individual stocks will never come back.
According to the guiding ideology of the new "National Nine Articles", we must reformulate the investment strategy and grasp the following four points in the direction:
First, we must do a good job in the capital allocation portfolio, and there should be a certain layout in the position of large-cap blue-chip stocks with excellent performance, low valuation, low price-to-book ratio and high differentiation, such as the four major bank stocks and the four major private bank stocks with a dividend rate of more than 5%, the CSI 300 ETF below the heavy holding cost of the national team, and the CSI 50 ETF below 1 yuan. Enjoy a fixed income of more than 10% a year, and you can expand your income by doing swings.
Second, small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks are as good as possible, with a price-earnings ratio of about 20 times, which belongs to the concept of new quality productivity, high-tech stocks with core technology, domestic substitution, high growth, and stock prices that have been mistakenly killed.
The third is: as much as possible to choose mid-cap high-quality high-growth stocks, for the market value of 5 billion, or even less than 3 billion market value stocks, as little as possible, unless there is a merger and reorganization, so as not to withstand the storm of the market economy and the fundamentals deteriorate.
Fourth: for small, micro, poor, and loss-making theme concept stocks, do not follow the trend of speculation and be cut leeks, they will be marginalized by the market sooner or later, and try to take advantage of the rebound to exchange shares.
If the direction is not right, the efforts will be in vain, and if you don't grasp the direction of the future, there will be a big bull market soon, and you may not have a chance. Garbage will definitely be stirred up in the future, but that's not our thing. Don't be carried away by the hype of short-term junk stocks, when you see a big rise, it will basically rise to the top of the mountain, and when you rush in, you are likely to be a pick-up man. Eight successes and two failures can be a big drain on your vitality, because you may only earn 5%, but when you lose, it may be 20% or more. Don't take chances. Adhere to the correct investment philosophy for a long time, adhere to the performance first, growth first, you will definitely be a winner in the future.