After a violent beating, I was already very satisfied with giving a candy to eat today, and there were not many such cases in Bijian. Generally, it will be difficult to recover the cost after a while and a half. Today, it is very OK for the index to appear positive and yin, and the index alone has hit a new high in recent times. Naturally, it also hit a new high this week, surprises no, surprises no, but unfortunately many people's account amounts did not hit a new high this week.
Anyway, there is another feeling of returning from a bull market, a scene that should have appeared on Monday, but it didn't happen until today, and it can be regarded as belated love. It's just that I didn't feel good in my heart, I was ravaged again, and I turned my head and gave a hot kiss.
Despite this, retail investors are still ecstatic, perhaps God wants to make them crazy and let them perish first. Let's torture first, in order to let us cherish the current market. It also confirms that sentence, the stock market has abused me thousands of times, and I treat the stock market like my first love. Perhaps the current market needs investors to have such feelings, rather than being weak-willed, swaying from side to side, and always regretting it.
In fact, it is not surprising that the market has come out of such a result, and the big money has washed a handful of leeks with the help of some seemingly negative news. Soldiers are not tired of cheating, and smart funds are good at using information differences to create contradictions, resulting in resonance of market funds, and prompting huge fluctuations in the market in the short term, so as to achieve the purpose of making profits.
In fact, this method is common in the market, but it is difficult for most people to grasp the true intention of the money. Not to mention getting to the right pace. Will it hurt you in the end, depends on your overall situation, if you have a firm belief in the future market, and have strict position control, then your loss is temporary, you will not only not retreat when the big fall, but will increase the position in the big fall, and soon not only unscathed, but also take the opportunity to make a big profit, what can really make you money, is when the market falls, and once the market enters a stable stage, it will be difficult to make money again.
Recently, I have been telling you to firmly hold shares, and I am firmly optimistic about the Chunsheng market and the change of leadership market. Of course, all this must be strictly controlled on the premise of positioning, and the risk awareness must not be lost at any time. Adhere to the idea of buying sharply, buying sharply, rising sharply, and selling sharply. Continuously reduce the cost of holding a position. Of course, you can avoid the big fall, and you can not miss the big rise, which is naturally the best, you must be a master. If you're not a master, you'd better not toss around, but you have to have a strong belief. If you have avoided the big fall and also missed the big rise, then what's the toss. If you are always following the crowd, then you are likely to chase the ups and downs, and you have suffered a lot of losses these days.
Today's big rise, is to chase it, or sell it, this is the key, for investors, tomorrow is always the most critical, we come together to communicate, aiming to throw bricks and lead jade, not to guide others.
1. Today's shrinkage is reversed, and individual stocks are rebounding with revenge across the board, what do you think?
First of all, these two days are completely irrational rhythm, today is a correction of yesterday's irrationality, since it is vindictive, it is difficult to continue, like a volcanic eruption, it must be short-term, don't expect another one tomorrow.
Secondly, although the retaliatory rebound will not continue, whether the market can stabilize after the key rise does not seek to continue to rise, but it cannot fall again. We take the trend of the past three days as a small episode for the time being, so the market will return to its original trend, will it rise again?
Let's first look at what are the factors that rise, from the news side, the first quarter GDP exceeded expectations, is the driving force for the market to rise, this news is enough to make the weight in the short term to form a joint force, stimulate the market to rise. But this momentum is likely not to be released this afternoon.
Secondly, the biggest worry is that today's overall stock gains are too large, tomorrow is likely to bring greater selling pressure, if tomorrow can withstand, then at least it means that the short-term long momentum is relatively sufficient, there is no need to worry, so tomorrow first observe, if the opening continues to rise, must not chase, if the intraday down smash, and then pull up, this is a kind of strength, we know when we can breathe a sigh of relief.
Judging from the trend of this afternoon, it is a strong short-selling, mainly institutional funds continue to flow in, but foreign capital is a small outflow, although the outflow is not large, but in such a big rise in the market, foreign capital is unwilling to enter the market, you must go directly to pull up, let foreign capital step short, this possibility is great, I think there is basically no possibility, with domestic capital morality, tomorrow will be a sharp sell-off, if it smashes down, the market is very strong, foreign capital has begun to buy, then the possibility of continuing to attack is greater.
I think there's a good chance of a rush tomorrow and then a pullback. Short-term traders can only sell high in the short term, not chase up. If you want to enter the market, you must wait until you fall back and enter the market. Don't worry that the market will pull up directly. Institutions are not so good, just pull them up and let others make money.
2. With a slight outflow of foreign capital and a large inflow of domestic capital, whose role as a weather vane is greater?
In fact, everyone knows very well that the big short of domestic capital has always been the main force of smashing, and if there was no sharp sell-off of domestic capital yesterday, the market would not be so miserable. But today, domestic capital has begun to flow in sharply again, and it is obvious that it has picked up a big bargain. Under such circumstances, how likely is it that domestic capital will rise tomorrow?
If foreign investors do not buy at a low level today, will they buy at a high level tomorrow? Today's RMB exchange rate is depreciating, why failed to stimulate the momentum of foreign capital to do long, obviously foreign interest is not high, statistics, foreign capital from March to the present basically no inflow, may still be a small outflow, but on the news side, foreign capital is constantly advocating how to be optimistic about A-shares, the slogan is very loud, but in fact not long. Incomprehensible.
On April 16, the Sino-US Financial Working Group held its fourth meeting in Washington, D.C. China and the United States have carried out intensive dialogue and communication in various fields, involving military, financial, and economic aspects. This is a major event between China and the United States, which contributes to the confidence of foreign investors to go long. Of course, for foreign investors, it has a greater impact on interest rates and expectations for future A-shares. But in fact, today's exchange rate is not a sharp appreciation, can foreign investors lose confidence in A-shares?
In my memory, there has basically been no net inflow of foreign capital for two consecutive days, and the inflow is one day and the outflow is immediately the next. The reason why domestic capital is long today is related to the statement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission yesterday, and it cannot help but give face. The second is to smash a lot of space in small and micro cap stocks in the past two days. The probability of outflow again tomorrow is very large, of course, it does not mean that domestic capital will fall sharply when it comes out of the market, the key is whether foreign capital will flow in, and whether the rest of the funds will flow in. In this way, the probability of the market rising and falling back tomorrow is greater.
Judging from our analysis of funds, the probability of domestic capital outflow is large, and foreign capital will not chase high, and the probability of rising and falling tomorrow is greater.
3. Tomorrow is Thursday, will the curse of Black Thursday be fulfilled, after Thursday, Friday is the delivery day of stock index futures, basically the statutory smashing day
A big rise is all the sound of singing, and everyone began to believe that the sharp drop in the first two days was the main capital to smash out more cheap chips. I believe that the bull market is coming.
I've not been so optimistic, but I'm not pessimistic about the next market, I just feel that I can't rush one step at a time. Through the sharp decline in the first two days of this week, it made me realize even more that there are short-selling forces in this market that we are not aware of. A slight rise will immediately lead to a large number of short-selling forces.
When the market trend is not formed, our strategy is very clear, do not chase the big up, and do not sell the big down. Strictly control the position, fall sharply, dare to increase the position when it falls, dare to increase the position when it falls, dare to reduce the position when it falls sharply. Only when a complete bullish trend is truly formed can we hold on to our holdings. to dare to increase positions in every pullback. When the trend is not formed, it can only be operated in waves.
Tomorrow the probability of the market rising and falling is larger, the short-term part of the weight is too violent, losing the momentum to continue to rush upward, for the market, tomorrow the key to see whether the subject can continue to be active, the morning focus on observing the weight of the protagonist, or the theme of the protagonist, once the weight of the protagonist, tomorrow's market will not be good, if the theme sings the protagonist, the index will not affect the market's money-making effect.
In the short term, don't expect the index to have much upward strength, brokerages have become the biggest drag, although it has risen today, but it has rebounded after a significant decline, and it will be difficult to rise again tomorrow.
After tomorrow, Friday will face the delivery day of stock index futures, which is another ghost gate. If it continues to rise tomorrow, the probability of smashing the market on Friday will be greater, and if it rises and falls slightly tomorrow, the pressure will be less on Friday.
My meaning is very clear, if the short-term continues to rise, mainly sell, if the short-term falls, patience to hold, as long as the market is not urgent, not sharply increase, firmly hold the stock.
There are also a certain amount of junk stocks, stocks with very indiscriminate performance will basically be eliminated in the future, there are so many stocks, don't be nostalgic for those junk stocks, even if the short-term will give you good profits. Don't get involved either, be sure to think long-term. Under the new "National Nine Articles" new policy, the shareholding strategy must be changed. Balanced allocation, small and medium-cap stocks must be based on high growth, with core technology, domestic substitution, high growth, etc.