Population issues are systemic and long-term, and expert predictions must be taken with caution. Professor Zhai Zhenwu predicted in 2013 that the Chinese population would increase by 97 million after the full liberalization of the second child, but in fact the population growth in 2023 will be negative.
Professor Zhai used an online questionnaire to understand the wishes of some women to have a second child, and directly deduced the "demographic dividend" released by the two-child policy, which is a relatively extensive research method. Population issues need to take into account the complex interplay of many personal, social and economic factors. With the improvement of education level and the acceleration of urbanization, the pressure and cost of childbearing for young women are increasing day by day, and the actual fertility rate is inevitably lower than the original intention. Professor Zhai did not notice that the mainland has entered the stage of population aging, and the concept of fertility is being deeply affected and becoming more rational, which also leads to a large deviation in his prediction.
The essence of the population problem is a long-term systematic project, which requires the support of exquisite research methodology, and cannot be simply determined. Experts should be more responsible than pursuing the "amazing effect". Professor Zhai's miscalculation has sounded the alarm for population work, calling on us to pay attention to the combination of research theory and empirical evidence, comprehensively consider various influencing factors and their dynamic change characteristics, and adopt a more prudent forecasting approach.
As a matter of fact, the mainland's population growth has entered a new period of phased adjustment. On the one hand, urban residents' desire to have children has declined, and the tendency of "one-child" or even "zero-child" has increased; on the other hand, many rural families still have two or three children, and there is considerable room for population growth. In the future, if public services such as education and medical care can better meet the needs of the majority of residents, the fertility rate and population quality are expected to increase overall. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the pressure brought about by the aging of the population and innovate the old-age security mechanism.
Under the new historical conditions, the population issue will be a long-term overall social project. Experts should take a broader and long-term perspective to provide scientific and sound advice for policy formulation. There is also a need for the public to have a deeper understanding that population is a complex system and that short-term forecasts are inevitably flawed. Only by working together can we better meet the challenges of the future and promote the continuous improvement of people's living standards.
Professor Zhai's miscalculation is a warning to population research, but it also highlights the importance of this topic. In line with the purpose of development and progress, all sectors of society should draw on this experience as a valuable experience for their own continuous growth. At the same time, with a more open and inclusive attitude, we will jointly study and judge the law of population change and promote the high-quality development of the mainland. Only through continuous learning and progress can we give a more scientific and reasonable answer to the population problem.
It should also be emphasized that the population issue is a long-term systems project. It requires not only high-level macro research and judgment, but also the formation of a policy system that goes deep into various fields, which requires governments at all levels to interpret new changes in a timely manner and continuously improve measures.
At the same time, population development is inseparable from the active participation of the broad masses. Every family should consider the interests of the individual and society, and uphold a rational risk view in the decision to have children. All industries should also do a good job of adapting and adjusting to help optimize the population structure. Only when the whole nation coordinates and cooperates can the population policy be more perfect in practice.
I should thank Professor Zhai for pointing out a new direction for population work with his mistakes. We need to learn more about the advocacy of research methods and do our best to improve the level of prediction. At the same time, it is necessary to adopt a more open and inclusive approach to governance, so as to promote positive interaction between population experts and policymakers, and lead the sustainable development of population with a scientific attitude. The population problem is a long-term topic, and only through continuous practice, review and progress can we give more valuable answers.
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