The most cost-effective way to buy second-hand houses this year? The prices of second-hand houses in 70 cities have all dropped
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16 showed that in the first quarter of 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 9.5% year-on-year. In terms of sales, in the first quarter, the sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the sales of newly built commercial buildings decreased by 27.6%. Wang Zhonghua, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in March, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased compared with the previous period, and the month-on-month decline in the sales price of commercial housing in all tiers of cities narrowed slightly and expanded.
According to China-Singapore Jingwei, recently, Guan Qingyou, president of the Institute of Financial Research, said that at present, all kinds of real estate, such as rigid demand, improved housing, luxury houses, etc., have generally declined, while the decline in housing prices in cities below the third tier is significantly greater than that of the first and second tiers, and some even have "halved" in price. At the same time, most cities, especially the first and second tier cities, have not seen a general reduction in the price of new houses, it is estimated that because the price adjustment response mechanism of the developer is relatively slow, so there will be a phenomenon of inverted prices of first-hand and second-hand houses.
National Business Daily data map
Residential transactions in 70 cities have increased
Second-hand housing prices are cheaper than last year
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2024, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased compared with the previous period, and the month-on-month decline in the sales price of commercial housing in all tiers of cities narrowed slightly and expanded year-on-year.
In March, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, 0.2 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month. Among them, Beijing was flat, Shanghai rose 0.5%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, and the decline rate was the same as that of the previous month.
In March, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.4%, 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.0% respectively. Second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.5% month-on-month, and the decline rate was 0.1 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month.
In March, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.8% and 4.3% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen both fell by 5.5%. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 2.0% and 3.4% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
In March, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 7.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 6.4%, 6.9%, 8.6% and 7.4% respectively. Second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities fell by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
It is worth noting that in March, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities included in the statistics, there were 57 cities with a month-on-month decline in new home prices and 58 cities with a year-on-year decline. At the same time, the prices of second-hand houses in 69 cities were lower than the previous month, and only Fuzhou rose slightly compared to the previous month. At the same time, the prices of second-hand houses in 70 cities are lower than the same period last year.
Expert: This year or a year when second-hand housing is very cheap
According to Zhongxin Jingwei, Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the current second-hand housing price is equivalent to the level of 2018, but it is still slightly higher than that in 2016 and 2017. This has a positive effect on home buying behavior, because the elimination of the housing bubble means that it is more cost-effective to buy a house, or that the overall housing prices in large cities will move in a positive direction.
Judging from the number of cities where the second-hand housing price index rose month-on-month in March, all cities except Fuzhou have declined. Among them, Xuzhou, Xiamen, Nanjing and other cities fell sharply year-on-year, and the property market price bubble shrank significantly, and the price adjustment also created a better foundation for the subsequent property market to stabilize and recover. On the whole, although the transaction volume of second-hand houses in various places has recovered, it is mainly based on the basis of "exchanging price for volume". In fact, this is also a key stage of de-bubble, and the cost performance of subscription will also improve after the price falls. Compared with the past two years, 2024 is a very cheap year to buy a second-hand house, which is worth the attention of home buyers.
During the overall critical period of the second-hand housing market, the adjustment of the market is the process of returning to rationality and matching supply and demand, so there is no need to be too anxious about this. In terms of policy, Zhengzhou and other cities proposed to "sell the old and buy the new, and trade the old for the new", and took the lead in piloting some second-hand houses with small age and moderate house types. This also gives experience and inspiration to other cities: there are some houses with good liquidity in second-hand houses, and taking the lead in reforming such houses will not only help promote landlords to sell houses, but also help boost the demand for new houses.
According to CCTV and statistics from the China Index Research Institute, as of April 10, 2024, more than 70 cities across the country have issued policies related to the optimization of provident funds, and the policies involve everything from the increase in loan amount to the relaxation of withdrawal conditions. Since March, Yantai and Qingdao in Shandong, Harbin in Heilongjiang, Ordos in Inner Mongolia and other places have introduced new policies on housing provident funds and increased the amount of provident fund loans to varying degrees.
In addition, various localities have also made detailed adjustments to the housing provident fund policy for specific groups. For example, the new policy in Qiannan Prefecture in Guizhou Province stipulates that the maximum loan amount for young talents to buy their own houses for the first time is 600,000 yuan. Suzhou, Jiangsu, Jingzhou, Hubei and other places have launched relevant provident fund deposit and loan products for flexible employees such as individual industrial and commercial households and freelancers, and adjusted the lower limit of the monthly housing provident fund contribution base for flexible employees.
Chenzhou in Hunan, Fuzhou in Fujian, and Tongliao in Inner Mongolia have further optimized the policy of converting commercial loans into provident fund loans and relaxed the conditions for "business to business". As long as the demand for provident fund loans is met, the provident fund center can directly transfer the loan funds to the commercial loan bank, without the need for lenders to raise "bridge funds" everywhere, so as to reduce the mortgage pressure of home buyers.
Editor|Wang Yuelong, Gai Yuanyuan, Du Hengfeng
Proofreading|Cheng Peng
The daily economic news is synthesized from the National Bureau of Statistics, China-Singapore Jingwei and CCTV
National Business Daily