China Fund News reporter Wu Jun
Recently, gold, silver, copper, aluminum and other commodity futures have risen sharply, causing market attention.
On April 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the Shanghai Futures Exchange) issued the "Notice" to increase the trading margin ratio and price limit of gold, silver, copper, aluminum and other futures contracts. As recently as April 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also issued an announcement to impose trading limits on gold and copper futures.
Industry insiders believe that the exchange's move is to warn of risks, curb excessive speculation, prevent the formation of price bubbles, and make investors more rational in trading. At the same time, the reporter also learned that after a round of rises, institutions are cautious about the sustainability of gold, silver and copper and other varieties.
Adjust the trading margin ratio and the price limit of private placement: in order to warn of risks and curb excessive speculation
On the evening of April 16, the "Notice" issued by the Shanghai Exchange stated that from the closing settlement on April 17, 2024 (Wednesday), the price limit of copper and aluminum futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the margin ratio of hedging transactions will be adjusted to 8%, and the margin ratio of speculative transactions will be adjusted to 9%.
At the same time, the price limit of gold and silver futures contracts is adjusted to 8%, the margin ratio of hedging transactions is adjusted to 9%, and the margin ratio of speculative transactions is adjusted to 10%.
At the same time, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (WEE), a subsidiary of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, also issued a notice that from the close of settlement on April 17, the price limit of international copper futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the margin ratio of hedging transactions will be adjusted to 8%, and the margin ratio of speculative transactions will be adjusted to 9%.
In fact, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued a number of relevant announcements involving commodity futures such as gold, copper and silver.
On April 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that since April 12 (that is, continuous trading on the evening of April 11), the Exchange will implement trading limits for gold and copper futures, and the maximum number of intraday open transactions in gold and copper futures will be 2,800 and 2,000 respectively. The number of open positions for hedging and market making is not subject to this limit.
The Exchange also stated that for non-futures members or clients who exceed the trading limit for the first time, it will take self-regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions for not less than 5 trading days, and if the trading limit is exceeded twice, it will take self-regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions for not less than 1 month, and if the trading limit exceeds the trading limit for three times, it will take self-regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions for not less than 2 months. If the circumstances are serious, it shall be dealt with in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Measures for Handling Violations of the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Bao Ruihai, general manager of Dayong Assets, told reporters that the recent continuous inflow of gold, silver, copper and aluminum futures funds, unilateral fluctuations are large, and the exchange has increased the margin and price limit in order to prompt risks, curb excessive speculation, prevent the formation of price bubbles, and make investors more rational in trading. Copper, aluminum, and silver in bulk commodity metals are related to the high prosperity of global manufacturing investment, and the new demand for new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power has continued to grow in the past three years, especially the industrial demand for silver has increased significantly. In terms of supply, the capital expenditure of minerals such as copper and zinc has not increased for many years, and the market expects that there will be a gap in 2025 under the condition of incremental demand.
This year, the price of many metal futures has risen sharply, and institutions are cautious about the market outlook
From the perspective of market performance, the main Shanghai gold contract 2406 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (referred to as SHFE) has risen sharply since March this year, and once rose to 588.28 yuan / gram on April 15, and its increase since the beginning of this year has reached about 17%.
The main contract 2406 of Shanghai Bank has also started a round of rising market since March this year, and the rise has been stronger in April, and it has risen to 7790 yuan/kg on April 15, and it has risen by about 22% since the beginning of this year.
In addition, the main Shanghai copper contract 2406 rose sharply in mid-March, and then fluctuated and consolidated, but at the end of March it resumed its upward trend, and by April 15, it had risen to 77,940 yuan/ton, and its increase since the beginning of this year reached about 11%.
In addition, the main Shanghai aluminum contract 2406 rose by about 5% this year, but there was a high pullback this week.
After the sharp rise in gold, silver, copper, aluminum and other metal varieties, institutions are cautious about the sustainability of their short-term market.
Bao Ruihai believes that the performance of this round of commodity metals is a long-term opportunity, there is no capital expenditure for many years, and the new demand has slowly made up for the reduction brought about by the downward cycle of real estate, and the supply and demand mismatch of the large cycle, and some metal varieties may enter the substantial depot after 2025.
Guosen Futures said that under the resonance of many factors such as the risk aversion stimulated by the recent geopolitical tensions and the relatively certain transaction of the market for interest rate cuts, the value of long-term allocation of gold and silver is still highlighted. "At present, after the short-term rapid upward movement of precious metals in the internal and external disks, the risk of its correction is also accumulating, investors need to be cautious about the sharp pullback that may result from the collective profit-taking of long funds, and also need to be cautious about changes in geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations. Short-term gold and silver may face a large volatility market with a high shock, it is recommended that long profits control positions, and wait for a new round of pullbacks to test support before buying. ”
Jinyuan Futures said that at present, as the international gold price has repeatedly hit record highs, the market has been very crowded with long transactions on precious metals, and the current precious metal prices have been included in more speculation and hedging premiums. Gold and silver prices rose and fell back on Friday, and there may be a large number of early bulls taking profits to leave. "We believe that the current rise in precious metal prices may come to an end temporarily, and gold and silver may have entered a phased adjustment, and more volatile silver will see a greater decline. ”
In addition, regarding copper prices, China Securities Construction Investment Futures said that the slowdown in U.S. inflation, the delay in interest rate cuts, and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts will face great uncertainty in the economic outlook, and it is expected that the high level of the US dollar will be difficult to fall. At the same time, the downstream demand margin has cooled, and the high copper price is also facing the risk of selling more profits in the early stage, and the copper price may have peaked, and the market outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Muyu