Last night, Cai Songsong's sentencing became popular all over the Internet overnight.
At first, I thought it was the same name, but after a while, the accurate news came out, and it was really Cai Songsong, the top fund manager we are familiar with. Stunned all!
What is going on? Have the chip semiconductor fund and the science and technology innovation 50 fund bottomed out again? See the following analysis for details......
1. Cai Songsong was sentenced
According to open press reports:
Cai Songsong was involved in the case of "accepting bribes by non-state functionaries and offering bribes to non-state functionaries", and the case was officially opened on March 27 and tried by the Jinhua Intermediate People's Court, case number (2024) Zhe 07 Xingchu No. 1.
According to some lawyers, "The case is tried in the Intermediate People's Court, and the case may have major circumstances, complicated circumstances, or large impact, large amounts of money, and a large number of people involved." ”
There are also some "small compositions" in circulation.
Cai Songsong said that he had already been sentenced, but he paid a huge fine, so he was sentenced to three years, suspended for four years.
To speak human words is to sentence to three years in prison, but the sentence will not be carried out for the time being. If there is no violation of the law and the provisions of the probationary period of the probation period are complied with, the sentence will not be executed after 4 years.
What really makes me wonder is, what kind of bribery and bribery crimes will a fund manager commit?
This also seems to have nothing to do with fund investment......
I think that if some illegal behaviors of fund managers such as Cai Songsong cause huge losses to the fund, it will be fine if they can't pay the fine.
The fund and the people are the first victims, and first of all, they must compensate the fund and the people! The people can also sue.
Instead of paying a fine and giving a suspended sentence, there is nothing to do, turning a blind eye to the losses of the fund and the people.
Second, the fluctuation of a single extreme style is far beyond imagination
In retrospect, the investment style of the fund managed by Cai Songsong is single and extreme, mainly betting on a single track, focusing on technology and growth style.
Taking his masterpiece Sino Analytica Growth Mix as an example, the fund is highly heavily weighted in chips and semiconductors, which is more like a chip semiconductor index fund.
Later, some of his funds completely switched positions to bet on artificial intelligence.
For example, in the first half of 2023, the management of Sino Analytica's active return will switch the fund's heavy stocks from chips, semiconductors, and full positions to AI artificial intelligence.
9 of the top 10 heavy stocks are new, All In Artificial Intelligence.
Source: iFind, as of June 30, 2023; not recommended as a single stock
The performance also fluctuates greatly because of the single and extreme investment style, and the fluctuations are very large.
The net value trend of the Sino Growth Mixed Fund is as follows, and the yellow box is Cai Songsong's employment range.
Source: iFind, as of April 15, 2024
At present, there are still many fund managers who are similar to the style of a single track, with heavy positions in a few industry themes.
I'm not saying that this investment style is bad, but it is similar to a single industry, a single track, and a single style, and the fluctuations are far beyond our imagination.
Besides, after losing money in investment, you can certainly dump the blame on the fund manager. Instead of complaining afterwards, it is better to start from the source, find a fund that suits your risk appetite, and control the proportion of your position.
Similar to high-volatility and extreme style funds, it is not that they cannot be invested, but they need to slow down the pace and flow for a long time, and industry-themed funds also belong to this category.
Unless the industry point and valuation level are really low, you can increase your position and increase your buying efforts.
3. Has the Science and Technology Innovation 50 bottomed out?
Recently, the chip semiconductor fund and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index have fallen sharply after the rebound of Shenzhen V.
PS: In the industry distribution of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, chip semiconductors account for nearly half, and the trend of the two is also highly similar, so they are classified together.
Falling to the present, has it bottomed out?
The prospects of the chip and semiconductor industries are undoubted, and domestic substitution is also imperative.
However, at present, domestic chip and semiconductor companies are still biased towards themes and concepts, and there is no strong performance support and strong industry position.
The attributes of science and technology innovation are stronger, and the valuation level is also relatively high. Taking the China Semiconductor Chip Index (990001) as an example, the current price-to-book ratio is 3.54 times, the unadjusted price-earnings ratio is 80.41 times, and the negative price-earnings ratio is 56.83 times.
At this valuation level, the absolute value is still high.
Technically, the chip semiconductor index and the science and technology 50 index are still on the way to decline and have not stabilized. It is likely that the correction will continue to fall until the market spontaneously stabilizes, or falls to near the previous low, and there will be strong support.
Source: iFind, as of April 16, 2024
To sum up: the chip semiconductor fund and the science and technology innovation 50 fund are still in a downward channel and have not stabilized. You can wait for the stabilization to increase your position, or you are worried that you will fly halfway and don't want to choose too much timing, and you can also invest a small amount on a weekly basis.
Note that the current industry distribution of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 is still highly dependent on chip semiconductors, and should not be regarded as a broad-based index. Try to treat it as an industry theme, and set investment strategies and position controls accordingly.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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