Source: Wind, Haomai Institute. Time period: 2018.1.2-2024.04.16
Today (2024/04/02) the market temperature is 13.85°C, after the recent trading day fall, the market temperature continues to fall, still in the greedy range, insufficient positions can consider continuing to cover the position. If the position is high, you can reserve part of the position to prevent extreme market conditions.
First, the real review
Yesterday, the market size has been on fire and ice differentiation is obvious, I want to be smart because the real market is still dominated by the market, so the net value still rose yesterday.
Since the establishment of the position in June last year, I want to be smart and the real market has lost more than 5 points to the present, the CSI 300 has fallen by more than 8 points in the same period, and the partial stock mixed fund index has fallen by 16.51% over the same period, in addition, the maximum drawdown of the partial stock fund index is 18.34%, and the maximum drawdown of the partial stock fund index is 29.17%, and I want to be smart and currently leading.
In the real market, the funds that have seriously dragged down the performance in the past week are Dacheng Jingheng and Penghua Hongjia, which have fallen by more than 6 points and more than 3 points respectively in the past week.
These two funds are small-cap funds, and the recent small-cap pullback has been drastic, and I have reminded you of the risk of small-cap direction in the real article relatively early, as for why the funds in the real market have not been changed, mainly because I want to be flexible and belong to the allocation type, and the overall style has been biased towards the large market, but I can't single press a style, so in the case of a low proportion of small-cap direction, I didn't choose to sell.
There have also been better performers in the past week, such as ICBC Logistics Industry, E Fund High-end Manufacturing, Hua'an Jujia and Zhongtai Yuheng Value Preferred, all of which have risen by more than 2 points.
It is mainly because some of the heavy positions of these stocks are biased towards the market and some are cyclical, and the ICBC logistics industry may have recently adjusted its position.
If you want to know the list of funds I want to allocate flexibly, please remember to join our circle, in which we will release the departure and position adjustment information in a timely manner, as well as answer your doubtful real questions.
2. Small-cap stock market crash?
In the past two days, everyone may be most concerned about small and micro disks, and many friends are holding the quantitative small cap funds that exploded in the past, and they also want to know what to do now.
Let's talk about the point of view first, the risk of small caps needs to continue to be released in the short term.
First of all, the national nine articles are now clear to clean up and rectify A-shares, for performance fraud, dividends are not up to standard and other related speculative targets are negative, and this, especially small-cap stocks are easy to be the hardest hit area, so a lot of funds are fleeing from risk.
Second, before I reminded the risk of small-cap stocks in the real article, the reason is very simple, that is, the position is high, the valuation is high, but there is no performance, now this problem still exists, we look at the following CSI 2000 chart, yesterday fell more than 4 points, today fell more than 7 points, or in the middle of the mountain.
From the perspective of valuation, according to wind data, the current PE valuation of CSI 2000 is 55.14 times, which is the valuation of small and micro cap stocks without performance support, while the current PE valuation of the CSI 300 Index is only 11.79 times, so it is obvious which is higher or lower in terms of cost performance.
Third, there should be a differentiation within small-cap stocks, which means that in the current panic decline, it cannot be ruled out that some small-cap stocks have been wrongly killed.
However, whether the company's performance is fraudulent, whether the dividends can keep up, whether there will be a thunderstorm during the performance disclosure period, and whether the current valuation is really reasonable, etc., I think that the vast majority of ordinary investors are difficult to distinguish only through online information, so when I see a friend in the group saying that they want to find the opportunity to be killed by mistake in it, I don't recommend everyone to go to the fire to take chestnuts.
In fact, we are now trying to allocate to the market with a cheap valuation and higher certainty, and it is already very good to earn money within the scope of our ability.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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