After four wartime cabinet meetings in the past two days, Israel is likely to be prepared to retaliate against Iran in a "measured and low-intensity" manner.
Officials familiar with high-level Israeli discussions revealed that Israel is considering a means of retaliation that would "send a message" without causing casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to list operational objectives aimed at "pain" Iran without triggering a large-scale conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes a wartime cabinet meeting
Analysts point out that Israel is seeking long-term interests in forming an "anti-Iranian coalition" and repairing tensions with its allies and Arab neighbors, so it has opted for low-intensity retaliation. In the face of Israel's potential threat, Iran said it was "ready for all scenarios" and would strike back in a more decisive way by showing its unused weapons. Iranian President Raisi stressed on the 16th that any action that harms Iran's interests will be responded to.
The goal of retaliation is clear:
Let Iran "feel the pain" but avoid a large-scale conflict
The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Hezi Al-Halewi, said on the 15th that Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel "will be responded." According to media reports, Israel's wartime cabinet discussed a series of options at its meeting on the 15th, with the aim of harming Iran without triggering a full-scale war.
According to an official familiar with senior Israeli leadership, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare a list of targets and stressed that Israel is considering a means of retaliation that would both "send a message" without causing casualties.
According to the official, some of the options on the table include cyberattacks, as well as "targeted attacks on key state-owned facilities such as Iran's oil infrastructure." The purpose of all actions is to make Iran "feel pain" without triggering a large-scale conflict.
Other possible responses, citing analysts, are to focus on "people and infrastructure linked to Iran's nuclear program," or "an Iranian proxy" — including the Palestinian Hamas group, Lebanese-based Allah and Yemen's Houthis. But some analysts say it is "unlikely" that Israel will launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, especially given that such operations would require U.S. support and funding.
It has also been reported that the options outlined by Israel will not "overextend" the forces already deployed in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as on the northern border with Lebanon. At the same time, Israel must also take into account the strong opposition of the United States to its direct attack on Iran - without the help of the United States, it will be difficult for Israel to carry out air strikes against Iran through the airspace of Middle Eastern countries.
Intended for long-term benefits:
Form an "anti-Iranian coalition" to seek international trust
Some analysts believe that from a long-term perspective, Israel chooses low-intensity retaliation to "let the Middle East take a breather" in order to obtain greater benefits.
Woody Summer, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University and the City University of New York, noted that Israel could use this to gain the trust of the Sunni pro-American countries of the Arab world to form an "anti-Iranian coalition." "Israel has the ability to build this international coalition, sustain it, and then deal with the hostage crisis," he said. ”
On the 14th, Iran fired missiles and drones at Israeli targets according to ICphoto
Woody Sommer refers to the case of the 1991 Gulf War. At that time, the Scud missiles fired by Iraq caused varying degrees of damage to several houses in an Israeli city. However, Israeli Prime Minister Shamir at the time heeded the advice of the United States and did not send troops to retaliate, helping Israel maintain the international alliance of the United States, Europe, Arabia and Israel.
"Even though this is a tough time, it's also a huge opportunity. Woody Summer said that opportunity could slip away if Israel misjudged the situation and prioritized short-term displays of power over long-term strategic considerations. He added that a restrained military response would pay off for Israel on the world stage, helping to repair tensions with the United States and its Arab neighbors.
Iran is on the lookout:
said that he was ready to show off his "new weapon" and hit back decisively
Some analysts have pointed out that Israel is trying to ensure the security of its neighboring countries and allies, but the possibility cannot be ruled out: Israel may carry out surprise attacks after pacifying the neighboring countries. In 1981, in order to cross the airspace without detection, Israel deceived Jordan and Saudi Arabia by carrying out a surprise attack on the Osrak nuclear power plant near the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which was successfully blown up.
Anti-Israel billboards in Tehran, Iran
The U.N. nuclear watchdog has expressed concern that Israel could target Iran's nuclear facilities. Asked about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said: "We have always been concerned about this possibility. He stressed that Israel needs to exercise extreme restraint.
Abu Alphader Amoui, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on the 15th that Iran is ready to face any Israeli attack and will retaliate accordingly.
He said that Iran is aware of the potential of Israel's retaliatory actions and the propensity for further provocations. Iran is ready for all scenarios and will respond "more decisively" and "more precisely", using "previously unused weapons."
On the 16th, Iranian President Raisi said in a phone call with Qatari Emir Tamim that Iran would respond to any actions that harm its interests. "We make it clear that even the smallest actions against Iranian interests will surely be met with a harsh, widespread and painful response from the perpetrators," he noted. ”
Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi
Edited by Guo Zhuang and edited by Guan Li
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