On Tuesday, A-shares adjusted sharply, with only more than 260 shares floating red throughout the day, and micro-cap stocks suffered heavy losses.
On April 16, the market opened low and went low, the three major indexes fell collectively, and individual stocks fell and fell significantly. In particular, after the sharp decline on April 15, some small and micro cap stocks suffered another liquidity kill.
"On Tuesday, the market directly opened low and went low, realizing yin and yang, which is relatively weak. However, the K-line of one or two days is not critical, the most critical thing is the gain or loss of the 60-day line. Wu Haifeng, an investment consultant at Huaxing Securities, said.
For the micro-cap stocks to suffer another setback, some industry insiders said that the continued sharp decline in micro-cap stocks may be related to the policy of increasing delisting supervision, "Investors are worried that the stock will be ST, which will cause market panic." ”
However, in the "Guo Ruiming, Director of the Department of Supervision of Listed Companies of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Answers Questions from Reporters on Issues Related to Dividends and Delisting" released on the evening of April 16, Guo Ruiming said that the implementation of other risk warnings (ST) if the dividends do not meet the standards is mainly aimed at improving the stability and predictability of dividends of listed companies, focusing on companies that have the ability to pay dividends but do not pay dividends for a long time or have a low dividend ratio.
"It should be pointed out that ST is not a delisting risk warning (*ST), but is mainly intended to remind investors to pay attention to the company's risks. If a company is ST for this reason alone, it will not lead to delisting, and it can apply for revocation of ST after certain conditions are met. Guo Ruiming pointed out that the implementation of other risk warnings (ST) if the dividends do not meet the standard, mainly focuses on improving the stability and predictability of dividends of listed companies, focusing on companies that have the ability to pay dividends but do not pay dividends for a long time or have a low dividend ratio.
Guo Ruiming emphasized that the conditions set by the rules fully take into account the characteristics of the large R&D investment of enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, and some enterprises are still in the early stage of industry development. For enterprises with high R&D intensity (cumulative R&D investment in the last three fiscal years accounting for more than 15% of cumulative operating income) or large R&D investment (more than 300 million yuan in three years), even if the dividends do not meet the above conditions, ST will not be implemented. Based on the 2020-2022 data, the number of companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen that may touch this standard is only more than 80.
Guo Ruiming further pointed out that according to estimates, the number of companies that will be delisted by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges next year is expected to be about 30 companies that will be delisted by the applicable portfolio financial indicators, and about 100 companies may touch the indicators and implement delisting risk warnings next year, and these companies will have more than a year and a half to improve their operations and improve their quality, and they will be delisted by the end of 2025 if they still do not meet the standards. In terms of market capitalization indicators, only 4 main board companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen currently have a market value of less than 500 million yuan, and there are no companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext that are close to 300 million yuan in market value delisting.
Small-cap stocks killed by mistake?
At the close of trading on April 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65% to 3,007.07 points, the STAR 50 Index fell 2.36% to 733.15 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.29% to 9,155.07 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.97% to 1,760.2 points.
The trend of large and small indices continued to diverge, and the Wind Micro Cap Index fell by 10.55% on April 16, on the basis of a sharp fall of 8.88% on the previous day.
In general, A-shares fell more and rose less. Wind statistics show that a total of 278 stocks rose in the two cities and the Beijing Stock Exchange, 5,062 stocks declined, and 19 stocks were flat.
On April 16, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 947.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan from 997.1 billion yuan on the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai market turnover was 435.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day's 459.8 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen market turnover was 511.9 billion yuan.
Judging from the disk, the ST sector continued to fall, and the tourism, second-new, machinery, chemical, media, and environmental protection sectors were sluggish throughout the day; banks and coal bucked the trend, and home appliances and some large-capitalization real estate stocks strengthened in the afternoon.
"Judging from the disk, only kitchen and bathroom appliances have risen, and the only red in the market. Banks, Zhongzitou and other companies are relatively stable, and small and micro cap stocks have fallen very hard. Wu Haifeng analyzed that part of the reason for the decline of small and micro cap stocks is the new "National Nine Articles" delisting rules, focusing on improving the overall quality of existing listed companies, and accurately clearing out the risk companies with bad records and poor performance, and part of the reason is that the overall market sentiment is relatively poor, forming the spread of panic. "At the same time, due to the extreme weakness of small and micro cap stocks, the recent trend of theme stocks is not good, and AI, robots, MR and other performance are also poor. ”
"Small-cap stocks have been hit hard in the past two days, which may be due to the market's misreading of policy. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stresses that the principle of delisting supervision is that 'all should be withdrawn', and there is no preset quantity. The new delisting rules set specific indicators for each delisting scenario, and the scope of the clearance is clear and unambiguous, and it is a misreading to mistakenly believe that all 'small-cap stocks' will be affected. Pan Chenjian, an investment consultant at Minsheng Securities, analyzed.
Zhao Wei, an analyst at Founder Securities, also stressed that not all small and micro market capitalization stocks are junk stocks. "The growth and investment value of many small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks are very high, especially the leading stocks in the technology growth segment track have medium and long-term investment value, which were mistakenly killed in this round of structural adjustment, but the investment value has also risen instead of falling. In addition, Zhao Wei said, "Some large-capitalization stocks are driven by safe-haven funds, and their stock prices have risen, but in the process of accelerating the transformation of the domestic economy, the investment value in the medium and long term has not risen but fallen." ”
On the whole, Zhao Wei believes that the "1+N" policy system constructed under the "National Nine Articles" is a major positive for the systematic market of the A-share market and has created a long-term bull market foundation for the A-share market.
"However, overkill must be overdone, and the clean-up and rectification of the primary and secondary markets by a number of supporting system rules of 'N' has dealt a blow to the inherent stubborn diseases of the market and brought a certain short-term impact on the structure of A-shares. Zhao Wei analyzed, affected by strong regulatory policies, the field funds to speed up the pace of adjustment, in the process of rapid adjustment, the market stock of funds on small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks irrationally killed, regardless of performance, whether there is growth, as long as the market value is below 10 billion, will be irrationally killed. "And this is the reason why the '28' phenomenon has continued in recent days and the market sentiment has fluctuated sharply."
The market will turn from chaotic performance to clear
For the outlook for the market outlook, Zhao Wei said that under the guidance of the "National Nine Articles" policy, speed up the pace of market clearance, speed up the structural adjustment of the market, and return the original face of the capital market, the cycle of A-share structural adjustment will be greatly shortened, and the time window for the start of the bull market will be accelerated and shortened.
"At present, the impact of performance uncertainty factors brought about by the first quarterly report and annual report, overcorrection under the policy, superimposed on the strengthening of the US dollar, the decline of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, under multiple factors, the accelerated adjustment of the structure, the acceleration of the market's 'reshuffle', the market has not gone out of the continuous upward trend expected by the market, but it does not mean that the medium-term trend of A-shares is not strong, on the contrary, with the accelerated adjustment of the structure, the acceleration of the market's clearing, the medium-term rise of A-shares is getting closer and closer to the market. ”
"Patience through April, the market will definitely turn from the chaos of performance to clear, the delisting of the delisting, the clearing of the clearing, the fall has fallen, the rise has risen, the valuation and growth of the return, the market will start all over again, the market risk appetite will be re-enhanced, superimposed in May and June The market seasonal factors, the market in May and June is very worth looking forward to, the technology growth market in May and June is worth looking forward to, and the market target is expected to be achieved during the year. Zhao Wei said.
In terms of operation strategy, Zhao Wei suggested that investors should be proactive, speed up the adjustment of positions, lay out the future, pay attention to the leading stocks of the technology growth segment track with performance support and growth expectations, pay attention to the brokerage stocks and second-tier blue chips that are expected to become the second wave of the bull market on dips, and pay attention to the small and medium-cap stocks whose stock prices are still at the bottom and have been wrongly killed, both α and β, and have medium and long-term investment value, and avoid strong stocks in the early stage and delisting risk stocks.
"Due to the intensive disclosure of the performance of listed companies in mid-to-late April and the change in the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the internal and external environment of the A-share market tends to be complex. The new 'National Nine Articles' strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies in terms of policy, which is conducive to the high-dividend blue chips represented by central enterprises, and investors can give priority to the allocation of high-quality white horse stocks and blue chips on dips. Shen Yuquan, an investment consultant at Haitong Securities, said.
"For micro-cap stocks, we recommend staying away, as many small-cap stocks have been injured by mistake, but in the current situation, it is more difficult to pick and choose the time. Pan believes that companies that can continue to focus on high-dividend strategies and can provide stable cash flow will continue to be sought after in the following market style.
In terms of allocation, Pan Chenjian said that the current stock price of resource products has reached a stage high, and the probability of short-term shocks is relatively high, but the medium and long-term configuration is still recommended: copper, oil, resource transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk, etc.), coal, precious metals and aluminum. Secondly, the traditional manufacturing leaders in the CSI 300 (heavy trucks, papermaking, construction machinery, steel) also benefit from the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, and finally a small amount of AI computing power, robotics and low-altitude economic concept plates can be allocated.