With the release of the economic report card for the first quarter, what is the confidence for China to achieve its annual growth target?

On April 16, China's economic report for the first quarter of 2024 was released.

GDP increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year, investment in fixed assets increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year...... In the first quarter, China's economic growth was relatively fast, the quality and efficiency improved, and it achieved a good start. However, under the severe and complex situation, problems such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations still exist, and it is necessary to further consolidate and strengthen the upward trend of economic recovery.

Behind the data, what is the economic situation in all parts of the country? What is the confidence to achieve the annual development target? The Xinhua News Agency's first-quarter economic research team recently conducted in-depth research in many places to observe China's economy from multiple dimensions.

With a good start to the first quarter, what is the significance of achieving the annual economic growth target?

According to recent overseas media reports, China's economic trend has attracted much attention.

Capturing the positive signs of economic recovery in the first quarter, many media made positive comments as "better than expected" and "confidence is continuing to recover", but when it comes to the trend of the whole year and even the future, there is still no shortage of arguments such as "facing severe challenges" and "difficulty in achieving goals".

The complex arguments not only highlight the complex external environment in which China's economy is currently operating, but also reflect the current situation of economic bright spots and pain points, hopes and difficulties, opportunities and challenges.

How do you look at the economic trend in the first quarter, and what is the impact on achieving the annual growth rate target of about 5%?

"In the first quarter, the national economy continued to rebound and got off to a good start. At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 16th, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the data shows that since the beginning of this year, the stability and coordination of China's economic operation have been enhanced, the market vitality has been enhanced, the confidence of market operators has continued to improve, and the overall upward trend has continued.

Walking in the north and south of the river, the reporter felt the pulse of the steady recovery of the economy——

In the factory workshop, grasp the progress, catch up with orders, improve efficiency, and the production line is running at full capacity.

Kemeida Electric Co., Ltd., located in Yueyang, Hunan Province, has been in full production since the beginning of the year, and orders have been scheduled until August. Zheng Jun, deputy director of the company's manufacturing center, said that this year, the company will expand industrial magnetic products and rail transit construction equipment to promote products to high-end.

According to the analysis of invoice data, in the first quarter, the invoice amount of Hunan's general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.34% year-on-year, and the invoice amount of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 36.2% year-on-year, confirming that Hunan's manufacturing industry is picking up.

On the project site, tower cranes are lined up, machines are roaring, and various major projects are speeding up.

On April 16, the Weisu high-speed railway to Qingdao connection line project invested and constructed by Shandong Railway Investment Group, the first pile foundation drilling began at the same time at the four bridge sites in the construction bid section in front of the four stations, marking the official construction stage of the main project of the project.

In the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, a super project connecting eastern and western Guangdong, successfully entered the bridge load test stage on April 13. At present, the project supporting mechanical and electrical, pavement, housing construction ancillary projects are in full swing, and will be ready for traffic in June.

According to the "Excavator Index" created by Sany Heavy Industry based on the Tree Root Interconnection Industrial Internet Platform, the national construction machinery and equipment in the first quarter was "busier". In March, the comprehensive operating rate of construction machinery in the country reached 55.52%, a significant increase from January and February, and the operating rate of 25 provinces has hit a new high this year.

In the port terminal, cargo ships shuttle back and forth, and loading and unloading machinery is busy.

In Qinzhou Port of Guangxi Beibu Gulf, rail-sea intermodal trains loaded with machinery and equipment, electronic components and light industrial products are busy running. Since the beginning of this year, the container cargo transported by rail-sea intermodal trains in the new western land-sea corridor has exceeded 200,000 TEUs, a new high in the same period of the previous year, with an average of 2,251 TEUs sent per day, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.

……

In the face of external headwinds, China's economy has moved forward steadily, handing over a hard-won report card.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, important indicators stabilized the fundamentals, and the macroeconomic "book" continued to rise for the better——

The quarterly GDP growth rate of 5.3% was higher than the previous quarter, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter;

Industry and services contribute more than 90% to GDP growth. Among them, the growth rate of industrial added value of 6% contributed 37.3% to economic growth, and the contribution rate of service industry was 55.7%;

The employment situation improved overall, with the average surveyed urban unemployment rate in the first quarter being 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.

Consumer prices stopped falling and stabilized, with the national consumer price index (CPI) reversing the year-on-year decline in the previous quarter, and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.7% year-on-year.

The total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of imports and exports hit a new high in six quarters. Foreign exchange reserves continue to hold steady at the $3.2 trillion mark......

Behind the country's "big account", the "small account" of thousands of industries draws a new picture of China's economy advancing towards high-quality development——

In Panyu District, Guangzhou, GAC Aion's intelligent assembly workshop can roll off the assembly line of a new energy vehicle every 53 seconds.

"Last year, GAC A'Safety's annual production and sales exceeded 480,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 77%. This year, we will accelerate the pace of globalization and plan to fully expand the market in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, South America and Africa, and challenge to higher production and sales targets. Zheng Chunqi, deputy general manager of GAC Aion, told reporters.

In the first quarter, the national investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 10.8% and 12.7% respectively, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 0.1%, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6%, and the output of new energy vehicles increased by nearly 30%...... A series of sub-indicators demonstrate the continuous transformation and upgrading of China's economy.

The plan of the year lies in the spring. Experts pointed out that judging from the data of previous years, although the first quarter accounted for less than a quarter of the annual economy, the directional significance is more prominent. A good start increases confidence and has a positive impact on subsequent economic behavior.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 5% from 4.8% in the previous year, and Citi raised its growth target from 4.6% to 5%, expecting China's growth target to be achieved this year.

"For every 1 percent more growth in China's economy, there will be 0.3 percent more growth for China-linked economies. Barnett, the chief representative of the International Monetary Fund in China, said that the global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% this year, and in this context, China's economy is still an important engine driving the world economy.

In the face of multiple challenges, how can China's economy effectively respond?

Turning over the first quarter report, real estate development investment is sluggish, fiscal revenue is growing at a low level, and the operation of some enterprises is under pressure...... While feeling the warmth of recovery, it is undeniable that China's economy is still facing some difficult challenges.

"The road to development is not easy, as is true for all economies. World Bank President Anjie Peng believes that the current challenges facing China's economy are not unique to China, but appear in the world.

Since the convening of the Central Economic Work Conference last year, the central and local governments have adhered to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking through," accelerated the development of new productive forces, thoroughly implemented the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, focused on expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepened reform, and earnestly guaranteed and improved the people's livelihood...... The "construction drawings" of striving to complete the annual goals and tasks are clear.

Grasp the overall strategic situation, face the development problems, and make precise and symptomatic moves.

In 2023, an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds will be issued, 3.9 trillion yuan of local government special bonds will be added in 2024, and 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be issued...... The toolbox of proactive fiscal policy has been continuously enriched, helping to achieve stable and positive economic and social development.

Walking into the Beijing Fangshan Dashihe Water Damage Restoration Project (Tangshang to Koucun Bridge), a hot construction scene is presented in front of you: workers carry out mortar mixing, stone masonry and other operations in an orderly manner, and excavators and cranes shuttle back and forth.

"We expect to complete the project by May 31 this year. According to the person in charge of the Dashihe River water damage restoration project, the total investment of the project is about 357 million yuan, of which about 250 million yuan comes from the additional treasury bond funds issued last year.

As of February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has completed the list of 1 trillion yuan of additional treasury bond issuance projects last year in three batches, covering 15,000 specific projects. Among them, the start-up rate of Beijing's additional treasury bond projects reached 70%, and the city's infrastructure investment increased by 34% year-on-year in the first two months.

If the economy is stable, employment will be stable, and if employment is stable, it is expected to be stable.

Now is the "Golden Three, Silver and Fourth" spring recruitment window. The reporter saw in Yanjin Shop Food Co., Ltd., located in Liuyang City, Hunan, that there was a long queue of applicants at the door.

As a leading snack company, Yanjin Shop achieved revenue of 4.115 billion yuan and net profit of 506 million yuan last year, an increase of 67.76% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, net profit is expected to increase by more than 30%.

"We not only produce our own brands, but also OEM for brands in the same industry, and the production line is almost non-stop. Yang Linguang, executive deputy general manager of the company, told reporters that although the unstable factors in the general environment have increased, the company has always adhered to the principle that "norms are the lowest cost", and sales have risen instead of falling, and there is often a shortage of labor.

How to prevent and defuse risks is the focus of public opinion at home and abroad.

The reporter learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that at present, all cities at and above the prefecture level (excluding municipalities directly under the central government) have established an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and proposed a "white list" of real estate projects that can be given financing support in batches and pushed them to commercial banks.

As of March 31, 1,979 projects on the "white list" have received 469.03 billion yuan of bank credit, and 1,247 projects have received loans of 155.41 billion yuan.

At present, the real estate market is still adjusting. Accelerate the promotion of the "three major projects", optimize the regulation and control of real estate due to the city's policies, relax purchase restrictions, reduce the interest rate of provident fund loans, and strive to complete the remaining tasks of ensuring the delivery of buildings...... Since the beginning of this year, from the central to the local government have taken multiple measures at the same time, and the decline in the sales area of real estate domestic enterprises and newly built commercial housing in the first quarter has narrowed, and the effect of real estate stabilization policies is showing in some parts.

In view of the local debt risk and fiscal sustainability, industry insiders believe that the outside world has overestimated China's government debt pressure to a certain extent. China's government debt ratio has remained stable and is at a low to medium level internationally.

According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance, in recent years, the Ministry of Finance, together with relevant parties, has resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, introduced a series of policies and measures, continuously improved the management of local government statutory debts, and actively and steadily resolved the hidden debt risks of local governments. "At present, the work of resolving local government debt is progressing in an orderly manner, and the risks are generally controllable. ”

At present, the external situation is still complex and severe, the country is in the critical stage of structural adjustment and transformation, and the confidence of market operators and the driving force for economic recovery need to be further strengthened.

In order to improve the business environment, we have issued guidance on further optimizing government services, improving administrative efficiency, and promoting "doing one thing efficiently"; in order to stabilize foreign investment, we have issued an action plan to solidly promote high-level opening-up and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment...... Recently, the State Council has accelerated the implementation of a series of new measures to help stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence.

Tian Xuan, deputy dean of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, said that at present, the key is to accurately implement the existing policy deployment, accurately implement macro policies, continuously deepen the reform of key areas and industries, continue to improve the business environment, help the economy stabilize the market, tap potential, protect people's livelihood, prevent risks, and lay a solid foundation for achieving this year's development goals.

To stimulate the potential growth rate, what is the confidence for China's economy to continue to grow?

The scenery should be long-sighted. To observe China's economy, we should not only look at the vitality and momentum under the complex situation, but also look at the development space under pressure and challenges.

The potential growth rate is widely used to analyze and judge the medium- and long-term trends of a country's economic development. Research by a number of domestic and foreign institutions shows that at this stage, China's economic growth is still far from the potential growth rate, and it is necessary to further stimulate the endogenous driving force of economic growth.

Looking at the vitality of the market, the consumer market continues to heat up, confirming the advantages of China's super-large-scale market——

Walking into Sunzhuang Village, Daji Town, Cao County, Shandong, the express delivery center at the entrance of the village is full of Hanfu that is about to be sent to all parts of the country. "Now we have more than 2,600 Taobao stores and more than 200 Tmall stores in the whole village, and more than 500 merchants have settled in Pinduoduo, Douyin, Live Broadcast and Kuaishou. Sun Xueping, secretary of the general party branch of Sunzhuang Village, told reporters.

The rise of the national tide has given rise to new consumption hotspots. During the Spring Festival this year, the sales of horse face skirts in Cao County exceeded 300 million yuan, and the online sales of Hanfu reached 1.98 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 90.8%.

According to the data, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percent, of which the retail sales of rural consumer goods increased by 5.2 percent, faster than that of urban areas, catering revenue was 1,344.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8 percent, and the retail sales of transportation, communication and information, and cultural, sports and leisure services maintained double-digit growth...... China's big market is booming.

Looking at the driving force of development, new industrialization reshapes new momentum for development, and new quality productivity brings new opportunities for development——

According to data from the China Electricity Council, in the first two months of this year, the country's electricity consumption was 1.53 trillion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Among them, the electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing increased by 16.9% year-on-year.

The change in electricity consumption reflects the development momentum of China's new industrialization.

Intelligent agricultural machinery is driven into the field, automated production lines are moved into manufacturing plants, and artificial intelligence medical equipment is used in hospitals to assist in diagnosis and treatment...... In March this year, the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", China will promote equipment renewal in seven major fields such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, education, cultural tourism, and medical care, which is expected to form a huge market with an annual scale of more than 5 trillion yuan.

New breakthroughs have been made in cutting-edge fields such as quantum technology, artificial intelligence, and biomanufacturing, and renewable energy has generated nearly 3 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity annually...... At present, China is cultivating and developing new quality productivity, and high-end, intelligent and green industries are booming.

In the view of Bai Chongen, dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, the formation and development of new quality productivity promotes technological innovation and industrial upgrading, drives the continuous improvement of total factor productivity, and continues to inject new impetus into China's economic development.

Looking at the growth potential, new urbanization has driven a huge domestic demand market, and rural revitalization dividends have been continuously released——

In downtown Liuyang, Hunan Province, a property with nearly 1,600 units was recently sold out, most of which were from surrounding rural residents. Zhang Heming, from Chengtanjiang Town, bought a house in the urban area earlier and lived the life of a "new citizen". "There are better job opportunities in the city, and there is also a better education for the children. ”

In 2023, the urbanization rate of Liuyang's permanent population will increase from 62.99% in 2021 to 63.76%. It is estimated that every 1 percentage point increase in China's urbanization rate can boost about one trillion yuan of new investment demand and more than 200 billion yuan of new consumer demand.

At present, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population is 66.16%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population is less than 50%. The "urbanization of the rural migrant population" is driving the huge domestic demand market and further stimulating the surging vitality of China's economy.

The Chinese market with a scale of more than 1.4 billion people has brought massive demand, and Made in China, which accounts for 30% of the world's total, has stabilized global supply and demand...... China's steady development of China is vital to the world.

The US magazine "Foreign Affairs" recently published a commentary article entitled "China is still rising", saying that the so-called "China peaking theory" underestimates China's economic resilience. China's economic contribution to world economic growth is expected to remain at about one-third.

As for whether the annual growth target of about 5% can be achieved, Sheng Laiyun said that at present, the positive factors supporting China's economy to continue to rebound have accumulated. The recovery of the world economy has led to an increase in external demand, coupled with the implementation of a series of domestic policy measures, China's economy is expected to continue to recover in the coming period.

"In the face of external 'headwinds', China has the ability to respond with corresponding measures and continue to maintain rapid economic growth. Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University in the United States, said that China's economy continues to grow at a rate of 5% or faster per year, and the quality of growth continues to improve, which not only benefits China but also the world.

(Reporter Han Jie, Zhang Xu, Ouyang Wei, Shen Cheng, Liu Yujia, Xi Min, Wang Yang, Zhang Zhongren, Ding Le, Wang Huan)