The picture shows the Karen National Armed Forces
Myanmar's military junta is under attack, and the problem of defection in the country is serious, and Thailand has also issued a warning that it will fight back if it dares to attack.
Recently, the Burmese government army lost the border town of Myawaddy, and the Karen National League has begun to form an administrative structure in Myawaddy. Not only that, Myawaddy is also an important trading port on the border of Myanmar, with the civilian land and military forces having one more source of revenue and the junta one less source of finance.
Myanmar's military junta is currently under at least three pressures. First of all, from the inside, the security of the top echelons of the military junta cannot be effectively guaranteed. The People's Defence Forces (YPG), led by the shadow government of National Unity, have found a new way of fighting, and in the past, the rebel groups have been adept at waging guerrilla warfare in the mountainous areas near the border, and have little advantage in the plains controlled by the junta.
Pictured is Myawaddy, Myanmar
Recently, however, rebel groups have begun using drones to attack junta-controlled cities and even carry out "decapitation operations."
Last week, Soe Win, the vice chairman of Myanmar's state administration council and the junta's No. 2 figure, was attacked by drones while attending a military meeting. Soween was injured, and the helicopter parked nearby was destroyed. After that, Deputy Prime Minister Myo Thun Oo was also hit by a drone bomb, and Miao Thun Oo himself escaped, but his limousine was bombed. It can be seen that the attacks of the rebels are highly targeted, and the change in the mode of warfare directly threatens the center of the junta.
In addition to this, the problem of defection faced by the junta is becoming more and more serious, and recruitment has become extremely difficult. Since the military took over power in 2021, many Burmese have fled the cities to rebel-held areas to join the resistance. Since the beginning of this month, the military has begun compulsory conscription. Men between the ages of 18 and 35 and women between the ages of 18 and 27 are required to serve in the military for two years. Rare talents like doctors are even more relaxed to 45 years old. The junta plans to conscript 60,000 people into the army by the end of the year.
The picture shows the scene of military recruitment in Myanmar
Many young people who do not want to join the army are doing everything they can to avoid military service, which actually exacerbates the problem of defection in junta-controlled areas. Some wealthy families choose to go abroad, and many choose Thailand. Thailand has doubled the number of visas issued, but it is still far from enough. Others chose to enter Thailand illegally, and they were about $1,200 for the "snakehead". Thailand has had to tighten border controls.
In addition to internal pressure, Thailand's attitude towards the Burmese junta is also changing. After the Karen National Alliance seized Myawaddy, the Thai government put rare pressure on the junta. First, Prime Minister Saitha said in a media interview that the Burmese military junta had been weakened and called on the Burmese military junta to initiate. It is important to know that ASEAN has always advocated the principle of non-intervention, and on issues involving the internal affairs of member states, ASEAN countries generally express their concerns privately through behind-the-scenes channels. And now Thailand is publicly exposing it, embarrassing the Burmese junta. In fact, since Thailand's democratically elected government took office, many have found that Thailand's attitude towards Myanmar's military junta has become more hawkish, which is markedly different from that of Prayut's rule.
Not only that, but the Thai government has authorized the military to launch an attack at any time as long as Burmese military aircraft enter Thai airspace, which has largely hindered the Tatmadaw army's air strikes on border towns such as Myawaddy.
Pictured is Thai Foreign Minister Bambi
Thai Foreign Minister Banbi also revealed that Thailand has expressed its hope to the Myanmar junta for "peace" in Myawaddy and asked the junta not to take retaliatory attacks, which is actually changing direction to protect the results of the Karen National Alliance. In fact, during the Cold War, Thailand was a supporter of the Karen National Alliance. But now, because of its own passive position, the Burmese military junta is not in a position to exert its authority over Thailand.
Thailand's move is still very wise, the civil war in Myanmar is not yet over, and maintaining good relations with the Karen National Alliance will have a buffer zone, which will help ensure stability in Thailand's border areas. Even if one day political reconciliation is achieved in Myanmar, Thailand will have an additional friendly force in Myanmar.
The junta can now be said to be in a difficult situation both internally and externally. Myanmar has been plagued by internal conflicts since independence, and the military has been in power for a long time. If the military now opens negotiations and promises to return power to the democratically elected government, it may still be able to guarantee the military's interests to a certain extent. On the contrary, if this internal friction continues, it will only plunge Myanmar into greater instability and poverty.