The international arms sales market has long been dominated by the United States and Russia, and the two largest arms dealers in the world, from tanks and planes to individual weapons, have always held the absolute right to speak. And after the 21st century, China, as an entrant, is also eager to get a place in it.
Since China entered the 21 st century, its military industry and technology have made rapid progress, so we have begun to make every effort to expand the channels for arms export, but in the face of the dilemma of the long-term monopoly of US arms sales, it is difficult for us to gain a market advantage.
Since April, news has come from three long-rumored international arms purchases on the mainland: Thailand has given up the purchase of mainland S-26T submarines and has chosen to purchase two offshore patrol ships. Argentina abandoned the Thunder Block 3 and opted for a second-hand F-16. The domestic Fire Dragon-300 tactical missile failed to compete with South Korea's KTSSM-I. and completely missed the UAE.
Domestically produced arms sales have suffered setbacks one after another, and for a time there is a tendency to drift in the wind and rain, but what is the reason for the unpopularity of domestically produced weapons?
The failure of the three major orders
First of all, let's take a detailed look at and analyze these three arms sales orders.
- Sino-Thai submarine order
The Sino-Thai order order contract was signed in 2017, but it was very difficult during the performance of the contract. First of all, in the process of producing the S-26T submarine on the mainland, Germany refused to provide this type of diesel engine, which led to the mainland's internal personnel having to renegotiate the choice of alternatives, and finally successfully found a copy of the German diesel engine.
After 10 months of personal verification, the Thai Navy finally determined that there was no problem with the alternative engine and agreed to the Chinese side to adopt the alternative. Although the Thai Navy has no opinion, the new Thai cabinet in September last year firmly rejected the S-26T submarine procurement plan.
In order to disrupt this cooperation, the cabinet directly proposed to reduce the Thai Navy's proposed $400 million purchase of a 054A modified frigate to more than $200 million to purchase two offshore patrol ships. Thailand's change of submarine order to patrol ship order may be interpreted by some people as Thailand's disapproval of mainland diesel engines, but in fact, there are other factors in this.
In 2020, Thailand had financial problems, the epidemic disrupted its internal economic development, and the Thai government's coastal defense funds became increasingly scarce. In 2022, a corvette in Thailand was wrecked, and the country urgently needs new warships, and this submarine order has become the best replacement.
Regardless of the scope and frequency of use, the practical value of warships is far better than that of submarines, so in late March this year, the Thai side requested to change the submarine to two frigates, and finally the two sides reached an agreement. Such a change may seem harmless, but in fact it will still cause certain losses to the mainland's exports.
- Argentina rejected the Thunder
Argentina has been interested in the Thunder fighter for a long time, and it was willing to buy it a few years ago, because the fighter has excellent performance, and the only problem is that the price is slightly higher, but the price is never its shortcoming, but the buyer's.
The reason for the rejection of the Thunder fighter is that the price of second-hand fighters on the international market is generally too low. These fighters are not very old, their performance is in excellent condition, and the actual use experience is no different from that of new aircraft, but the price is only about half of that of the Thunder.
The Argentine side is also more cunning, and although it has a positive desire to buy, it has always held a wait-and-see attitude and refused to sign a formal contract with the mainland. Argentina has inspected the manufacture of the Thunder many times, which has made China and foreign countries agree that Argentina is bound to obtain the Thunder fighter, but this time the second-hand fighter provided by Denmark is not only cheap, but also comes with a large number of missile armaments, maintenance measures and technical personnel.
It was a pie-in-the-sky deal, and Argentina had absolutely no reason to refuse, and immediately switched to 16 Danish second-hand F-16s.
- The competition with South Korean missiles was lost
China's Huolong-300 tactical missile lost to South Korea's tactical missile in the bidding, causing the UAE order to flow into South Korea's hands. This is not because China's missiles are inferior to South Korea's, in fact, the mainland's long-range rocket artillery is superior to South Korea's tactical missiles in terms of range and performance, and the reason for the failure is due to two reasons.
Because most U.S. companies are based in South Korea, South Korea has effectively become a U.S. arms manufacturing foundry. Buyers are more willing to buy South Korean armaments because, with the technical participation of the United States, South Korean missiles belong to the U.S.-made missile type, which is more compatible with countries around the world, and the cost of the missiles is lower.
The UAE chose South Korea mainly because of cost and compatibility, in fact, it is not so much South Korea as it is the United States, which is an outsider.
Arms sales and politics
The world's five largest arms dealers are the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China. These five countries correspond to the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, of which the United States accounts for 37% of the world's arms exports, Russia accounts for 20%, and China ranks fifth with 5.2%.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute previously released an annual report on arms exports, in the 2019~2023 arms export list, the United States unsurprisingly ranked first again, Ukraine and a number of European countries imports soared in the short term, on the other hand, China's and Russia's arms exports fell sharply.
Russia, of course, is due to the poor performance of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but China's arms exports have been declining in recent years. Arms exports in 2019~2023 will be 7.8% lower than in the previous five years, while the scale of imports will drop by 44%.
Over the past decade, China's share of global military trade has changed little, but Pakistan's share has increased year by year, which also represents a general decline in purchases by other countries, with only a few countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia increasing. This has given some foreign media an opportunity to smear and promote the decline in the size of China's weapons as the result of poor quality and stability.
For example, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao spread rumors and smeared that China's arms exports were declining because the quality was not up to standard. India's retired soldier Palaiprawishankar has publicly blamed China for the poor quality of the weapons it has provided to Pakistan, Myanmar, and Nigeria, the low radar accuracy of the aircraft, and even the grounding of fighter jets.
In fact, the decline in the scale of China's arms imports is due to the improvement of the country's independent production capacity, and it will further decline on the basis of continuous development in the future, which is a good thing. The decline in arms exports is due to a variety of factors, because national arms sales are not simply commodity transactions, but multiple political, economic, and military considerations, and China's arms sales have long been subject to political obstruction and interference.
In Argentina and Thailand, for example, although the performance of Chinese weapons withstood considerations, the deal ultimately failed due to government-led intervention, partly because of cost, but more because of political direction.
Such incidents are common around the world, and in 2019 Egypt wanted to purchase the Su-35SE. However, when the $3 billion Su-35SE was about to be delivered, the United States intervened in the matter, threatening that if Egypt purchased the Su-35SE, it would invoke the "U.S. Hostile State Sanctions Act" to impose comprehensive sanctions on Egypt.
Forced by the United States, Egypt finally chose to cancel the order, and the ordered Su-35SE is still in Russia. With Egypt's experience, Malaysia, Algeria and many other countries that are interested in the Su-35 can only wait and see.
China's arms sales have also been interfered with by political factors for a long time, for example, Argentina wanted to buy F-16 a few years ago, and Britain refused to agree, but when Argentina expressed interest in the mainland dragon, the United States did not hesitate to immediately intervene to solve Britain's obstruction and provide Argentina with F-16 at the speed of light. In the past, it was often said that the essence of military trade is a political extension, and these two incidents are the best embodiment of this.
How can China break through the existing predicament and allow its domestically produced weapons to be truly exported overseas? It is difficult and unrealistic to rely on political counterattacks, because the mainland's influence is slightly inferior to that of the United States. I think the most important thing is to launch some truly competitive heavyweight equipment, and at the same time, the core technology must be fully mastered and self-sufficient, such as the next generation of J-35 fighters, which may become a star product that attracts global attention.
Relying on these superweapons, we can completely offset the political interference of other countries, Algeria's purchase of the S-400 despite the warning of the United States, and Turkey's abandonment of the F-35A and the purchase of the S-400 are the best examples.