Will Israel and Iran go to war directly? Will the Middle East, which is already on fire, be dragged into a full-scale war?
Part.1
From the evening of April 13 to the early morning of April 14, local time, hundreds of drones and missiles were suddenly launched from Iran to Israel from multiple locations. Large numbers of Iranians took to the streets late at night, waving Iranian flags in their hands, gathering to cheer loudly and watch Iran's massive attack on Israel.
Iranian people:
"I have never seen people happy when any country goes to war against another, but tonight people are sleepless, pouring into the streets to witness the importance of this war to us and to feel the joy of the attack on Israel. ”
Dong Manyuan, Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies:
"This is the most reactive to a security crisis in Iran in recent years. Iran has used a relatively advanced drone fleet, as well as equipment including third-generation medium-range missiles and cruise missiles. ”
According to the Israeli Ministry of Defense, Iran launched 180 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles during the attack, but 99% of them were intercepted by the air defense systems of Israel and the United States, Britain, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other countries.
According to Iranian state television, Iranian missiles successfully broke through the Israeli air defense system and carried out strikes on Israel's Navatim airbase and a large Israeli intelligence center located in the border area between Israel and Syria. It is worth mentioning that the Navatim base is the largest transport airfield in Israel and is also the place where F-35 fighters are stationed.
On April 1, Israel launched an attack on the Syrian capital, Damascus, hitting the consular section of the Iranian embassy and killing 13 Iranians and Syrians, including senior IRGC commander Zahedi, the highest-ranking IRGC general killed after General Soleimani. And the Navatim base is also considered by Iran to be the take-off base for the three F-35s involved in the attack.
And the large Israeli intelligence center that attacked this time is also the same institution that provided intelligence for Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria.
Part.2
According to Israeli reports, only one 7-year-old child was seriously injured in the attack. A military official involved in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' military operation against Israel said: "All missile and drone targets in Iran's military operation against Israel are military objectives".
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"Iran is also reluctant to expand the scale of the war, and it is not hitting Israel's large cities and residential areas, it is striking two military installations. ”
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a new statement saying that the Iranian side would respond to any threats from the United States and Israel. The Revolutionary Guards also said that Iran would redouble its response if Israel took any action against Iranian territory.
Dong Manyuan, Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies:
"It is not only a warning to the United States, but also a deterrent to Israel. If Israel wants to strike at the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria and Lebanon, or continue to inflict the casualties of senior IRGC generals, this scenario will continue to appear today, even more vigorously than today. ”
The Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations stated that the Iranian military operation was launched in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, which stipulates that all States Members of the United Nations have the right to individual or collective self-defence. If Israel makes another "mistake", Iran's response will be even harsher.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"Iran wants to legitimize its actions, at least in Iran's view, that Israel attacked the Iranian embassy first, violating Iran's sovereignty. Under the Charter of the United Nations, Iran has the right to defend itself when its sovereignty is violated. ”
Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations posted on social media that Iran's attack on Israel could be considered "over."
Dong Manyuan, Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies:
"If Israel doesn't dare to fight back, it's over." Because Iran's dignity has been restored, and at the same time it has given Israel a follow-up, long-term deterrent. The political goal was achieved, and the military goal was achieved. ”
Part.3
Previously, the whole world was concerned about whether and when Iran would retaliate against Israel, and it was directly full of atmosphere. First, Israel suspended all combat troops from vacation and threatened Iran not to retaliate, and then Israel temporarily closed 28 embassies abroad, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Ali made a speech that Israel must be punished.
A few days ago, the United States and other countries successively demanded the evacuation of relevant personnel from Israel and Iran, neighboring countries such as Jordan and Iraq temporarily closed their airspace, and the United States learned through the intelligence system that Iran had prepared hundreds of missiles and would launch an attack around the 14th. Sure enough, in the face of many pressures, Iran finally took military retaliation.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"The attack is definitely necessary, because Israel has hit Iran's embassy district this time, and the embassy area is equivalent to sovereign territory, so Iran must give an explanation to the people, and Israel must make Israel realize that Iran cannot be easily moved through military deterrence. ”
In fact, military retaliation against Israel is not Iran's first option, and on April 6 it was reported that Iran, through Oman, had proposed to the United States that Iran would not directly attack Israel as long as the United States forced Israel to end the war in Gaza once and for all and not attack the southern Gaza city of Rafah. On April 11, Iran's mission to the United Nations also said on social media that Iran could have considered not retaliating against Israel if the Security Council had previously condemned the Israeli attack on Iran's diplomatic institutions.
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"Iran wants to change the course of the war in Gaza, but in reality it is impossible. Obviously, this is a diplomatic ploy by Iran, trying to show that it has exhausted all means, but there is no solution to the problem, and there is no choice but to take military action. ”
After the attack in the early hours of April 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting and promised an "unprecedented response" to the Iranian attack and urged Israelis not to go to bed to witness what was about to happen in Tehran.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"Netanyahu is now in a very fragile position, and the United States has sent a very clear signal that it wants to abandon him. He played in Gaza for six months, but he was far from his goal. The threat of Allah in the north, the serious incursion of the Houthis in the Red Sea, and the armed attacks of militias in Iraq and Syria have posed certain interference and threats to US interests in the Middle East. So in such a situation, it will not go to war with Iran without the help of the United States. ”
Netanyahu then called US President Joe Biden, according to US media sources, Biden said that the United States will not support Israel's counterattack on Iran and will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, Biden told Netanyahu that the joint defense of Israel, the United States and other countries in the region has thwarted Iran's attack.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"The United States will not agree to Israel attacking Iran again, lest a war implicate the United States, and the central attitude of the United States is to ask Israel to refrain from it. ”
Although the United States has shown its attitude towards this attack, the Biden administration still supports Israel in the face of this attack. On the 14th, Biden posted on social media, "I just met with the national security team to get an update on Iran's attack on Israel. Our commitment to Israel's security from threats from Iran and its proxies is unbreakable. ”
Niu Xinchun, professor at the Institute of Chinese Arab States Studies at Ningxia University:
"The United States and Israel are fundamentally allies, their basic interests are the same, and protecting Israel's security is also the responsibility and obligation of the United States as an ally, but at the same time, the United States does not want to harm its own national interests and drag itself into a larger conflict. ”
Part.4
Iran's military retaliation against Israel has already begun, and how Israel responds, which ignited the fuse of the conflict, has become a central factor affecting the development of the situation. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari issued a statement on the 14th, saying that a large number of Israeli fighter jets have been in the air to prepare to counter Iran's attack, and Israel's representative to the United Nations has sent a letter to the Security Council, requesting that a special meeting of the Security Council be convened immediately to clearly condemn Iran's serious violations and take action to designate the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Dong Manyuan, Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies:
"Israel is essentially attacking and defending, putting on an offensive posture, but it is for the sake of defense, and its exact meaning is to avoid direct conflict and war with Iran. ”
Some media analysts believe that although Iran's attack is large-scale, in fact, all parties are well aware of the possibility of the development of the situation, and after the attack on the embassy in Syria, Iran's retaliation was delayed for nearly two weeks, during which Iran must have weighed the pros and cons. During this period, Iran and the United States also communicated and shouted at each other many times, so that the United States and Israel had sufficient time to prepare.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"Iran is actually very tactical, and there was direct communication with the United States through the Swiss embassy, and the two sides generally reached a tacit understanding, and both confirmed that the other side did not want a war. Iran wants to retaliate against Israel, but at the same time does not provoke war, and after receiving such reassurance, it will start fighting as scheduled. ”
According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, about 72 hours before the operation, Iran notified friends and neighbors in the region. In terms of the scale of the attacks, Iran has mainly targeted Israeli military installations, but not large cities or Israeli targets overseas, and the Israeli military has also said that the losses are minor.
In addition, the drones released by Iran arrived in Israel first in time, and cruise missiles and ballistic missiles arrived later, which also shows that Iran does not want to escalate a full-scale military conflict with Israel because of this retaliatory action, let alone expand the spillover effect of this retaliatory action.
In the early morning of the 15th local time, Israel announced the resumption of all school teaching activities across the country, and Israel's airspace was reopened. President Herzog said Israel does not seek war.
US media reported that because Iran was not seriously damaged by Israel itself, coupled with the attitude of the US side during the phone call between Netanyahu and Biden, Israel's riposte was canceled. Although it seems that the incident has come to an end, there is an undercurrent behind it, and it remains to be seen whether the situation will escalate again.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Institute of Arab States Studies, Ningxia University:
"This attack is Iran's direct attack from its own territory to Israel itself, and the situation has been escalated, and these signs are very dangerous. Whether it is an attack on the embassy or a direct attack on the mainland, it is an act of war. This actually has a little bit of the brink of war in it, and it is very dangerous. ”
Iran's retaliatory action began in a high-profile manner and ended quickly, and the mystery behind it is intriguing. If Iran and Israel go to war directly, it will not only involve the interests of the Middle East, but also the complex interests of the major powers behind it. And the United States is torn between supporting Israel and preventing escalation. Although most analysts believe that Israel and Iran will not fight head-on for the time being, the crisis can only be completely resolved if real peace is achieved in the Middle East.
Producer: He Jining
Choreographer: Zhang Meng
Editor: Wang Jinjie