After the sudden plunge in international gold prices last Friday, on the 15th, precious metals such as gold and silver rose again, accompanied by a sharp surge in the prices of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and nickel. The precious metals sector and the industrial metals sector of the A-share market were weak, but the market volume was still active.
Obviously, after the sharp rise in market prices in the early stage, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver, copper and aluminum and other non-ferrous metals are falling into high fluctuations, which in itself means that the sentiment is easy to be amplified, and some industry insiders believe that the current trend of the Middle East conflict is still unclear, and the long-term price trend of precious metals and non-ferrous metals is still optimistic.
These metals are also soaring, what signal?
Geopolitical risks are frequent, and gold opens sharply higher
The gold market continues to trade around geopolitical risk. Last weekend's Iranian attack on Israel triggered an increase in risk aversion in the market, bitcoin fell sharply, and gold prices rose again, and some market participants are optimistic about the medium- to long-term trend of gold prices.
On April 15, international spot gold resumed its upward trend after a brief pullback at the opening, and the increase once expanded to 1.2%, reaching as high as above $2,370 per ounce, but then retreated. Previously, gold hit an all-time high of $2,431 an ounce on Friday. Spot silver opened up nearly 1%, then fell quickly before rallying to trade above $28 an ounce.
In the domestic market, on the 15th, the main gold contract 2406 contract opened at 570.42 yuan / gram, up 0.28%. Previously, on the evening of April 12, Shanghai gold futures broke through 588 yuan / gram, hitting a record high, up nearly 20% during the year, and the current daily trading volume of the Shanghai gold index has approached 900,000 lots. During the same period, the main contract 2406 of Shanghai Bank Futures opened up 1.33% and closed up 1.97%, an increase of more than 23% during the year.
However, relative to the enthusiasm of the precious metals futures spot market, on the 15th, the A-share flush precious metals concept opened sharply lower, and Zhongrun Resources opened lower. Subsequently, Chifeng Gold, Sichuan Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. fell one after another. Statistics show that the concept of straight flush precious metals rose nearly 80% from a low of 1453.87 on February 6 to a high of 2610 on April 12.
At present, the enthusiasm for domestic gold investment is still high, and a large number of funds have poured into the gold market through ETFs, especially the fund share of gold stock ETFs (159562) with high market attention has risen from 39.13 million on April 1 to 209 million on April 11, an increase of more than 4 times. After the premium exceeded 30% in the early stage, the fund adjusted its quotation after two trading days, and the average daily turnover exceeded 160 million yuan recently.
The rise in gold coincided with the rise in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury rates in tandem with gold prices, and the drive of geopolitical risks became an important reason. Guotai Junan analyst Zhou Hao believes that the trend of gold last Friday was very tortuous, after hitting a record high of 2,430 US dollars / ounce, the international gold price plummeted, closing at only 2,344 US dollars / ounce. The volatility of the market itself means that emotions are easily amplified, and the direction of the Middle East conflict is still uncertain, which also means that gold's magical journey is still ongoing.
Chen Xiaorong, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that in the long run, the risk of U.S. sovereign debt is unresolved, the trend of anti-globalization continues, overseas geopolitical problems are fermenting, the global macro environment is still relatively complex, the US dollar credit system may continue to weaken, the global sovereign monetary system or is undergoing a long-term reconstruction process, and the anchor of gold is expected to be reshaped.
These metals are also soaring
Not only gold and silver, but also copper, aluminum and a variety of non-ferrous metals prices also rose on the 15th. LME aluminum rose more than 9% in early trading in Asian trading, the largest increase since at least 1987, LME nickel rose more than 7%, and LME copper rose nearly 2%.
In the domestic futures market, the early quotation of Shanghai aluminum rose by 3.3% in early trading on the 15th, while the quotation of Shanghai copper rose nearly 1% in early trading. Previously, on April 12, Shanghai copper once rushed to 77,940 yuan/ton, a new high since May 2021. In response to market trading, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced that it will implement trading limits on gold and copper futures from April 12, 2024.
However, on the 15th, the A-share flush industrial metal sector, like the precious metal sector, also opened sharply lower, but the market trading enthusiasm was still high. From the perspective of net purchases, northbound funds increased their holdings in 28 industries last week, of which non-ferrous metals topped the list, with a net purchase amount of 1.955 billion yuan, of which the balance of Tongling nonferrous metals financing on April 12 was 1.797 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year.
The sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Kingdom on Russian metals at the end of last week became the fuse for further increases in non-ferrous metal prices. The British government and the U.S. Treasury Department issued announcements on the evening of April 12, local time, that aluminum, copper and nickel produced in Russia after April 13 will be prohibited from being used in global metal exchanges and over-the-counter derivatives transactions, but the existing inventory of Russian metal will not be affected by this new regulation. Under the new rules, metal exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will be barred from accepting new Russian production of aluminum, copper and nickel from April 13.
According to the data, Russia has an important position among the world's non-ferrous metal producers, with Russian copper production of about 1.02 million tons in 2023, accounting for about 4% of the world's total, aluminum annual output of about 3.8 million tons, accounting for 5% of the global proportion, and refined nickel production of 154,000 tons, accounting for more than 20% of the world's refined nickel output.
What's more noteworthy is that as of March 28 this year, the inventory of aluminum, copper and nickel produced in Russia accounted for 91.14%, 62.13% and 36.07% respectively in LME registered warehouses. These sanctions may result in significant constraints on the LME's new deliverables.
Guangzhou futures research report believes that in the short term, the impact of sanctions will inevitably cause a supply panic in the aluminum market, the current aluminum price is still in a strong upward trend, the price or further rise, after the impact of the incident, wait and see LME inventory in other channels after the clearance of Russian aluminum supplements, domestic inventory will be due to the discount of Russian aluminum large imports and accumulation.
Editor-in-charge: Wan Jianyi
Proofreading: Gao Yuan
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These metals are also soaring, what signal?
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