Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on April 14 that Iran had given 72 hours' notice to its neighbors and Israel's ally, the United States, before striking Israel.
Turkish, Jordanian, and Iraqi officials confirmed on April 14 that Iran had given notice days before its drone and missile attacks on Israel. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said it had held talks with Washington and Tehran before the attack and had conveyed messages as intermediaries to ensure that both sides responded proportionately.
Iranian Foreign Minister meets with foreign ambassadors
A senior U.S. government official denied the claim, saying Washington did have ties to Iran through Swiss intermediaries but was not notified 72 hours in advance. "It's definitely not true," the official said, "they didn't give a notice and they didn't give any feeling...... 'these will be targets, so evacuate them'." Tehran sent a message to the United States only after the attack began, the official said.
Two Iraqi government officials revealed that Iran notified Iraq through diplomatic channels three days before the attack and again several hours in advance to ensure that Baghdad could close its airspace to avoid an accident. "The U.S. forces in Iraq also knew about the attack in advance." A Jordanian official said Iran had summoned Arab ambassadors to inform them of its intentions, but did not specify the timing. An Iranian source said the Iranian side notified the United States of the planned date of the attack through diplomatic channels in Qatar, Turkey and Switzerland, and said that "it will be carried out in a way that avoids triggering a reaction."
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Why is Iran issuing an early warning?
Experts: Avoiding major misjudgments is a top priority
Li Hao, a professor at the School of International Relations at Sichuan University, director of the China Collaborative Innovation Center for Security and Development in the Western Frontier, and a visiting scholar at Temple University in the United States, analyzed the strategic considerations of Iran's move. He pointed out that although the United States is reluctant to intervene in a military conflict with Iran, in the most extreme case, if Israel and Iran retaliate repeatedly and eventually bring the US military into a military strike, Iran's losses will be even greater. "Therefore, Iran should first avoid the United States and Israel participating in retaliatory actions, and secondly, it should also avoid Israel's direct, reciprocal, and even punitive large-scale retaliation against Iran itself. ”
Li Hao, a professor at the School of International Relations, Sichuan University
"Normally, military operations are kept secret, and this is often the best. But this time, Iran chose to report in advance, mainly out of the consideration that it did not want to inflict excessive casualties on Israel. Li Hao further explained, "Because if a missile flies into Israel without warning, and then inflicts a major blow on Israeli military and civilian targets, it will be pushing Israel into a corner." In such a situation, in accordance with Israel's established national security strategy, they are bound to retaliate more harshly and without hesitation. Such an outcome is obviously not what Iran wants to see. ”
"At the political level, Iran wants to make the other side aware of the true intentions of its actions in this way to avoid any strategic miscalculations that could lead to an escalation of the conflict. Li Hao pointed out that Iran launched a large-scale attack on the Israeli mainland this time, which is unprecedented in past confrontations. "In the new and unknown situation, the two sides lack sufficient tacit understanding and understanding, which greatly increases the risk of miscalculation. In the past, the two sides may also be able to use past confrontation experience to make some estimates of the other side's intentions and the scale of their actions, thereby reducing the possibility of miscalculation. But this time the situation is completely different. ”
Li Hao also stressed that for Iran, a response is necessary because Israel has changed its tactics and pushed the relationship into "uncharted waters". "Israel used to strike only Iranian military targets in Syria, but on April 1, they directly attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, which is equivalent to an attack on Iranian territory overseas. ”
"This move puts enormous pressure on Iran. "In this case, Iran must respond." Iran fears that if it does not respond, Israel will consider an attack on the embassy/overseas territories to be 'riskless', and that next time, Israel may strike directly at Iranian soil. Iran must therefore act, but with caution, to avoid a massive retaliation by Israel that could lead to a large-scale and ongoing armed conflict between the two sides. ”
"So Iran should respond by both showing its resolve and minimizing the possibility of the situation spiraling out of control." "For such a significant and unprecedented action, it is impossible for Iran not to make some indications about its intentions, whether explicit or implicit, to prevent miscalculations on the part of the other side." (Extensive prior notification by Iran) is inevitable and necessary. ”
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"Retaliation and counter-retaliation" are trapped in a vicious circle
Israel weighs in on "how to serve"
Who was the victor in this attack? In this regard, Li Hao said: On the whole, Iran is the victor in this incident. Israel has not been able to change its dire and dire external security situation. Allah (Lebanon) continues to launch attacks in the north, Hamas remains active in southern Gaza, and Iran's presence in Syria continues to pose a threat to Israel itself. Israel, on the other hand, has not been able to approach Iran proper, and its external security situation remains unresolved. ”
Iranian drones streaked across the sky
After a succession of Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran's retaliation against Israel, a vicious circle has begun between the two sides. "This vicious circle, the biggest escalation in history, is the crux of the matter. Li Hao said that at present, the possibility of a large-scale war between Iran and Israel is only half a step away. There is no doubt that Israel will retaliate. The key issue now is the timing, scale and target of reprisals.
Li Hao believes that Israel now has the "right to serve" (initiative), and the scale and goal of retaliation are "optional":
1. In terms of the scale of retaliation, should you choose large-scale retaliation or small-scale targeted strikes?
2. The targets of retaliation are also diverse, ranging from Iran itself to other important Iranian targets in the Middle East, such as certain facilities in Syria.
3. The exact location of the retaliation is also variable, is it Iran itself or outside its borders, if it is Iran itself, is it the capital, Tehran, or is it something else? Is the target a military installation, or is it a civil-military integration target?
At this point, it remains to be seen whether the timing and intensity of Israel's response to Iran will be. U.S. and Western officials widely predict that Israel could respond to the Iranian attack as soon as April 15 (local time in the United States). The United States has made it clear that it will not participate in any Israeli retaliation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened members of his wartime cabinet on the afternoon of April 14 for hours of discussion on how to respond to Iran's attack. At the meeting, cabinet members generally supported retaliation against Iran, but disagreed on the timing and intensity of the retaliation. Netanyahu is expected to reconvene his wartime cabinet at a later date.
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Jordan on the geopolitical chessboard:
Reluctance to be a "punching bag" between Iran and Israel
After intercepting Iranian drones in its airspace, Jordan summoned Iran's ambassador to Jordan on April 14 to protest Iran's earlier warning not to obstruct its attack on Israel, which it considered to be interference in Jordan's internal affairs. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi said: "We will intercept every drone or missile that violates Jordan's airspace to avoid any danger." We will respond to any threat to the security of Jordan and its people with all our capabilities and resources. ”
Jordan is geographically located between Iran and Israel. On the evening of April 13, local time, Iran launched a large-scale air strike on Israel, and as a neighbor of Israel, Jordan's air force intercepted and shot down dozens of Iranian drones passing through its airspace that night. In the aftermath, Israeli media said that Jordan had provided "dramatic support", indicating that the country was turning from an "adversary to an ally."
Israeli air defense systems intercept drones and missiles launched by Iran
Li Hao pointed out that Jordan, as one of the Arab countries, has historically been in opposition to Israel, but it is also one of the first Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel. "In the Arab camp, Jordan and Egypt are called "front-line states" because they share a border with Israel, and any conflict or war will affect these countries first. This direct geographical engagement necessitates a more prudent and pragmatic approach to Israel in the face of Jordan and Egypt. ”
Jordan's position has become even more important as the focus of tension in the Middle East has shifted from the conflict between Arab countries and Israel to the confrontation between Iran and Israel. Li Hao analyzed: "If Iran wants to strike at Israel, it must pass through many countries such as Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Strategically, the most direct route for Iran to strike at Israel appears to be through Syria or through Allah-controlled areas in Lebanon. However, these routes are not only geographically constrained and narrow and difficult to navigate, but they are also the focus of Israel's military defenses. ”
"Jordan has a long border with Israel, which makes Jordan a potential military corridor. Li Hao stressed that although Iran may see Jordan as a path to launch a strike against Israel, Jordan, as a sovereign state, does not want to be violated in its sovereignty and does not want to fall victim to conflicts in other countries.
Li Hao believes that if Iranian missiles cross Jordanian airspace to strike Israel, then Israel is likely to retaliate against Iran through Jordanian airspace. In the process, both Israel and Iran are likely to turn their anger on Jordan, turning Jordan into a "punching bag" for the conflict between the two sides. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why Jordan resolutely intercepted any drones or missiles that violated its airspace in accordance with international law and national security considerations in this Iranian attack, so as to avoid being drawn into the vortex of regional conflict.
Li Hao pointed out in his analysis that Jordan's move is a thoughtful consideration of national security and international relations, rather than blindly choosing sides. He also singled out the American factor: "Jordan's role in this great power conflict is particularly delicate. It needs to find a balance between maintaining its own national security and balancing its relations with major powers, especially in the context of the United States having important military bases in Jordan, whose decision-making is driven not only by internal security but also by the United States. ”
"While the conflict between Iran and Israel has captured the world's attention, the question of Palestine remains at the heart of Middle East geopolitics. Even as Israel and Iran clash with each other, civilians in Gaza remain in dire straits. The first task of the parties is to find a political solution to the crisis in Gaza. It is truly sad and regrettable that the parties to the conflict are now constantly escalating and retaliating against each other, which will only exacerbate the crisis in Gaza and make the Palestinian question even more unsolvable. Li Hao said.
Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi
Edited by Guo Zhuang and edited by Deng Minguang
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