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Recently, according to a report released by IDC, an international data company, global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 7.8% year-on-year to 289.4 million units. The agency believes that while the smartphone industry is not yet fully out of the woods and the market is still facing macroeconomic challenges, this figure marks the third consecutive quarter of growth in smartphone shipments, which is a strong indication that the recovery is well underway. The top five global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2024 are Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Transsion, and OPPO.
What is "embarrassing" is that in the first quarter of 2024, Apple's mobile phone shipments actually ran counter to the overall rebound trend of the smartphone industry. According to IDC data, in 2023, Apple's market share hit an all-time high and reached the top spot for the first time. In the first quarter of 2024, Apple's iPhone shipments fell by 9.6% to a total of 50.1 million units, with a market share of 17.3%, overtaken by Samsung. According to preliminary statistics from IDC, Apple's iPhone shipments have decreased by about 5 million units compared to a year ago.
Looking back at the competition in the smartphone industry from the "decline in iPhone shipments":
- Global smartphone shipments
From 2010 to 2022, the scale of global smartphone shipments showed a trend of first rising and then stabilizing. In 2016, global mobile phone shipments peaked at 1.473 billion units, and then began to decline. In 2022, global smartphone shipments will be about 1.430 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
-- Global smartphone market share distribution
After years of competition, the global smartphone market has matured and has a high market concentration. At present, the main players in the global market include Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, and VIVO, and in the third quarter of 2022, the market share of the top 5 companies reached 80%.
- Global smartphone price distribution
According to Counterpoint statistics, the global mobile phone market revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was about $100 billion, of which the Apple brand accounted for 42%; Combined with the sales volume of the top 5 brands released by Counterpoint in the third quarter, the average sales price of each brand's products is calculated. In the third quarter of 2022, the average sales price of the Apple brand reached $861 per unit, while the average sales price of the VIVO brand was only $192 per unit, and the premium of the Apple brand was higher.
According to Counterpoint Research's Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 3% to 1.2 billion units in 2024. As the market appears to have bottomed out, global smartphone shipments are expected to maintain low-single-digit year-over-year growth.
Counterpoint predicts that the high-end price segment ($600~$799) is expected to maintain stable growth in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, especially the launch of a new generation of AI phones and the popularity of folding screen phones will continue to stimulate the demand for high-end smartphones.
In addition, market research firm Canalys also expects global smartphone shipments to rebound by 4% in 2024, driven by emerging markets. However, Canalys analyst Runar Bjørhovde warned that AI capabilities on mobile devices will have a limited impact on driving high-end smartphone upgrades in 2024, with less than 5% of smartphones equipped with advanced AI chipsets.
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