The province with the largest population has begun to "smash" the iron rice bowl

Text: Kaifeng

The iron rice bowl is becoming less and less "iron".

01

Following the initiative of a number of counties with small populations to "slim down", China's largest province with the largest registered population has also taken action.

A few days ago, Henan Province started the reform of public institutions, and the provincial institutions should be streamlined by no less than 50%, the establishment of institutions should be reduced by no less than 30%, and the proportion of financial appropriations should be reduced by no less than 10%, and in principle, public institutions with less than 16 staff at the section level and with an establishment of 16 people will no longer be retained.

This means that Henan Province's institutions will be reduced by more than half, and the establishment of relevant institutions will also be reduced, and some "small, scattered and weak" institutions may cease to exist.

This round of reform, whether it involves a wide range of areas or a great intensity, far exceeds the previous pilot projects in various places.

As the province with the largest registered population in China, Henan has 17 prefecture-level cities, 153 counties and districts, and 2,458 townships/sub-districts, ranking among the largest in the country.

With a large number of administrative divisions and a relatively large scale of various types of personnel, Henan's institutional reform is undoubtedly more representative and of signal significance than that of counties with small populations.

As we all know, the establishment of administration, public institutions, and state-owned enterprises is often regarded as an "iron rice bowl" and a footnote to the "system".

As the most stable job, once you are recruited, you will not be easily dismissed. In the context of economic fluctuations, the safe haven effect of the system has become more and more prominent.

So over the years, thousands of troops have been vying for the public examination and the examination of the editor.

Last year, more than 3 million people applied for the national "national examination," and more than 5 million people applied for the provincial examination.

Not only that, but there are also a large number of non-staff personnel in various places.

The so-called "supernumerary" refers to personnel who do not have the establishment of government agencies and units, and are widely found in urban management, auxiliary police, security, education and other systems, commonly known as "hired workers" or "contract workers".

Even though there is a world of difference in treatment between the two heavens inside and outside the staff, as the position closest to the iron rice bowl, it still makes countless people rush to it.

Regardless of whether it is within or outside the establishment, it is ultimately dependent on financial support, and they all belong to financial support personnel in a broad sense.

Now, when "fiscal tightness" has become a top-down consensus, all localities have finally begun to "iron rice bowls".

02

How much has the iron rice bowl been "smashed"?

They are all iron rice bowls, but the "weight" and "gold content" are completely different, so the fates are very different.

If power is viewed as a "concentric circle" structure, non-staff personnel are at the outermost, career establishments are in the middle, and civil servants are at the innermost.

The first to bear the brunt are "non-staff personnel", which have the widest scope and the greatest intensity, and in some areas they are even more one-size-fits-all.

At present, Heilongjiang, Hunan, Hubei, Yunnan, Anhui, and Inner Mongolia have begun to remove non-staff personnel.

Among them, the most vigorous is Harbin, which requires a 20% reduction of relevant non-staff personnel every year, and the municipal organs will be streamlined within five years.

Non-staff personnel, also known as "shadow employees", exist as a supplement to the staff, but the "quasi-iron rice bowl" is not a real iron rice bowl after all, and it will inevitably bear the brunt of each round of streamlining.

This is followed by the establishment of the business, although the pressure of downsizing is increasing, but it will not be easy to "lay off".

This is the case with this round of institutional reform in Henan.

It is reported that at the provincial level, in addition to schools and hospitals, public institutions have been reduced by 60.7 percent, the establishment of public institutions has been reduced by 46.9 percent, the number of leading posts at the department level has been reduced by 9.3 percent, and the number of leading posts at the department level has been reduced by 25.5 percent, far exceeding the original reform target.

However, these streamlined establishments have not all disappeared, but some have been transferred to grassroots departments, and some have been used in key areas such as science and technology, education, and people's livelihood.

According to the data, Henan Province has 5,638 people in sinking counties (cities and districts) and more than 3,300 people have been approved for scientific and technological innovation platforms such as the Provincial Academy of Sciences, Songshan Laboratory, and Shennong Seed Industry Laboratory.

As for the innermost administrative establishment, except for the small population counties, there is little impact in various localities, and there is even a phenomenon of "expanding enrollment" in some areas.

As early as 2020, Shanxi started the institutional reform of counties with small populations, from public institutions to party and government departments, and it was not only the establishment that was reduced, but also the leadership positions.

As a typical county in Fushan County, Shanxi Province, the number of 35 party and government organs has been reduced to 22, the number of section-level leadership posts has been reduced from 154 to 128, the number of county-level institutions involved in reform has been reduced from 179 to 40, a reduction of 78 percent, and the number of institutions involved in reform has been reduced from 1,944 to 970, which is about half.

Of course, whether it is an administrative editor or a career editor, even if the "iron rice bowl" is reduced, it will not be as stormy as the layoffs of enterprises, and what the system is best at is to work step by step and step by step.

Generally, there is a transition period for streamlining the establishment, and the staff who have been reduced will either retire early, or sink to the grassroots level, or slowly digest the method of "retreating three into one", that is, only one new person can be added for every three retired personnel.

Of course, this is only a pilot for counties with small populations.

These counties are relatively special, with a population of less than 100,000, and are facing the dual pressures of negative natural population growth and labor outflow, and the burden of financial support is relatively heavy, so the reform is at the forefront.

However, for more prefectures and cities, before the clean-up of supernumerary and public institutions is completed, it will not be easy to turn inward.

On the contrary, due to the emergence of the retirement wave and the existence of the employment policy, from the national examination to the provincial examination, the number of recruits has increased instead of decreasing, but there has been a rare phenomenon of "expansion of civil servants".

Therefore, in recent years, the civil service examination has become more and more popular, and it is not difficult to understand.

03

Why did you suddenly start "smashing" the iron rice bowl?

For a long time, double-digit GDP growth, soaring income from land sales, and a steady stream of transfer payments in coastal areas have made the "money bags" in many places extremely abundant, and it is not a problem to support the staff and non-staff personnel.

As the population market is still on the rise, some cities and counties are still able to maintain positive population growth by relying on the contribution of the local natural population, even if they are facing an exodus of young people, and the number of financial supporters can expand accordingly.

Against this backdrop, almost every city pursues an expansionist mindset.

The urban framework is constantly expanding, the urban boundaries are constantly spreading outward, and the number of administrative divisions and institutions is expanding.

However, there is an end to any expansion, and the biggest constraint lies in "money".

The economy is generally improving, but some regions are experiencing difficulties in growth, and real estate is facing the biggest turning point in more than 20 years, coupled with the existence of local debt problems, fiscal expenditures must naturally be strict.

At the same time, the population market has peaked, about two-thirds of the permanent population of provinces have suffered negative growth, and in some places except the provincial capital, the population of all prefectures and cities is decreasing, while the population of counties is declining faster and more magnitude.

It should not be ignored that the coastal areas, which are the main contributors to transfer payments, are also affected by geopolitical changes and international competition, and there may not be so much room for transfer payments. (See "Who Took the 10 Trillion Transfer Payments")

In other words, even if the fiscal growth trend is still high, there is no need to maintain such a large financial support structure in the face of a shrinking population.

Therefore, when the population is declining and the space for fiscal growth is limited, streamlining the administration is an inevitable choice, and it is inevitable that the fiscal "life will be tight."

Not long ago, the relevant parties proposed to "get used to living a tight life", which means that this is not a short-term choice, but the norm in the future.

The decline in treatment within the system is not new, and the "iron rice bowl" is naturally difficult to be as unbreakable as in the past.

Therefore, changing the inertial growth thinking and moving towards the road of "slimming down and strengthening the body" is not only the inevitable development of the city, but also the only choice for individuals to face uncertainty.