The blockbuster property market policy may be coming......

1、

On March 22 (last Friday), Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over the National Standing Meeting, which focused a lot on real estate, emphasized the importance of the real estate industry, and made it clear that it is necessary to further optimize real estate policies and systematically plan relevant support policies.

At the same time, on March 25 (Monday), real estate stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, the A-share real estate sector index rose rapidly by nearly 3% in the morning, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Mainland Real Estate Index bucked the trend and floated red.

Capital markets are the most sensitive. So what happened to make real estate stocks so crazy?

The answer is: the new deal for the property market is brewing!

The Financial Associated Press has continuously issued documents that "it is necessary to further optimize the real estate policy system and plan relevant support policies", "and the coordination mechanism with real estate financing is being implemented"

The meeting pointed out that the real estate industry involves a long industrial chain with wide coverage, which is related to the overall situation of economic development;

Since last year, all parts of the country have relied on the relaxation of policies to implement a series of measures such as ensuring the delivery of buildings, and have maintained the bottom line of systemic risks;

Next, it is necessary to further adapt to the new supply and demand relationship, improve the supply system of "market + security", further optimize the real estate policy, stimulate potential demand, and increase the supply of high-quality housing.

In the final analysis, real estate still has to be saved until it is saved.

2、

01. It is a matter of the overall economic situation

With the exception of some cities, land revenue may be the life of the locality.

According to statistics, in 2023, the land fiscal revenue of some coastal economic cities such as the Yangtze River Delta will decline significantly year-on-year;

Fujian fell 23%, Zhejiang fell 22.4%, and Guangdong fell 18.2%......

Jiangxi's decline also reached 9.7%.

Affected by the downturn in the real estate market, private developers have thundered one after another, and the number of land transactions in many cities has decreased significantly.

The real estate industry is involved in a series of upstream and downstream such as building materials, home furnishing, processing and manufacturing, and once there is a shock, the overall economy will also be implicated.

02. Defend systemic risk

Although the market experience at this stage is average, however, under a series of policy stimulus last year, there is no systemic risk, and the most difficult time for real estate may have passed;

The next step is to continue to stabilize the market, stabilize housing prices, and avoid risks such as big ups and downs. (A big rise is impossible)

03. Policy easing is the main keynote

This year's policy control, easing is the main keynote;

The five-year LPR is now 3.95%, but many cities are lower than that. Although the latest LPR interest rate has not been reduced, there is still room for it to fall.

Secondly, it is the system of "market + guarantee". In fact, this model is that the normative affordable housing will be the main body of the market, and the commercial housing will return to the commodity attributes. Similar to the first-tier megacities, the purchasing power is also graded, those who can't afford to buy a house and don't want to take a mortgage can live in affordable housing, and within the scope of their ability, there is a higher demand to buy commercial housing.

In addition, there is another point worth paying attention to: "increasing the supply of high-quality housing". Some cities have slowly lifted the price limit for high-end luxury homes, and luxury homes without real estate linkage prices may become more and more expensive in the future. The relaxation of price limits is conducive to the improvement of developers' profit margins, and the products have greater room for operation, and the quality will be further improved.

The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China has made it clear that "it is necessary to further optimize the real estate policy" and "systematically plan relevant support policies". In other words, the policy will continue to be loose in the next two quarters.

Although there is no official announcement yet, the trend is unstoppable.

Of course, local policies will also be "exhausted". Further reduce the cost of buying a house and improve the convenience of buying a house.

If the action is fast, the signal has already responded after it is sent.

From March 23 in Zhongshan, Guangdong, no personal housing certificate is required to purchase a house;

Since March 25, the maximum amount of provident fund loans in Harbin has been raised to 1 million;

From April 1 in Tangshan, the housing provident fund can be withdrawn to pay the down payment for the purchase of a house;

Nanning, Guangxi, optimizes the criteria for determining the number of housing units for families with many children in personal housing loans......

Including the recent rumors that the interest rate on provident fund loans will be reduced to 2.6%, it is not groundless.

The purpose of the provident fund itself is to benefit the people. And there is a high probability that the LPR will fall. The interest rate difference between the two is getting smaller and smaller, and the meaning of the provident fund is lost.

3、

To sum up, it is foreseeable that a wave of large-scale relaxation is already on the way.

The key to reversing property market expectations and boosting market confidence is here.

The biggest problem now is that when house prices are not expected to rise, rich people are more and more cautious about asset allocation, and people without funds, even if they are willing to buy a house, will be dissuaded by house prices.

When the purchasing power of the market needs round after round of policy stimulus, it is particularly difficult to really recover.

Finally, if you have any conjectures about Jiujiang's follow-up policy, please discuss it in the comment area.

The picture and text come from the Internet, invaded and deleted.