With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially announcing that he would not retaliate against Iran after communicating with Mr. Biden of the United States, the curtain has come down on the military conflict between Iran and Israel.
This is a very strange military confrontation:
Iran declared a great victory, successfully attacked and hit Israeli military targets;
Israel declared a great victory, with the Iron Dome system intercepting 99% of its missiles and drones largely unscathed, with only a little girl slightly injured;
The United States declared a great victory, which, with his mediation, prevented the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East.
In a confrontation, the three countries involved all declared themselves a great victory, and their domestic people fell into the carnival of victory and self-entertainment, only the people of other countries around the world who knew the truth laughed off their big teeth.
But after laughing, we have to think about and review the layout and strategy of the big powers, which makes people feel cold behind their backs:
Did the United States and Israel know → before Iran attacked Israel?
I can say that 99% of the people knew the exact time, not the moment the missile was launched, but at least 24 hours in advance, the United States was the first to know.
It's not because of how strong the U.S. intelligence is, or how bad Iran's secrecy is, but I guess it's that Iran deliberately leaked it to the U.S. intelligence agencies to tell you: I'm going to beat your own son. That's why the United States made a good deployment in advance and notified Israel to defend it.
That is, in this war, Iran did not want to fight seriously from the beginning, otherwise how to fight back, where to fight, what to fight, what kind of losses it wants to cause, everyone is guessing, Israel is also like a great enemy, and the United States is also very nervous, after all, Iran is known as the leader of the Middle East, and its strength is undoubted.
Therefore, if Iran takes the initiative to declare war on Israel, then there is no way out but to fight to the end.
If a large-scale attack is launched suddenly, a small country like Israel, which has no strategic depth, no matter how powerful the Iron Dome is, will not be able to stop Iran's ballistic missiles.
So Iran is very smart in that it wants to save face and form a strategic deterrent to you, and the best way is to tell you in a veiled way that I am going to fight you.
→Why did Israel agree to the US demand and give up the fight back?
One is that Israel is not completely sure that it can win against Iran alone, or it is almost difficult, Iran's military power ranks slightly higher in the world than Israel, and Israel has lost the support of the United States, and its military force of more than 600,000 people is compared with Iran's military force of 1 million.
It is very difficult to form an advantage, not to mention that we have said that Israel is too small in size and has no strategic depth, and it is very uncomfortable to fight.
If we take 10,000 steps back, even if we win, Israel will not be able to bear this loss, and it may still face the eyes of other countries in the Middle East, and the Middle East will suffer Israel for a long time! This pressure is too great, and Israel will not dare to gamble.
So if Iran is like Hamas, you see that the United States will stop and oppose it, and the whole world will oppose it, and he will fight it.
Second, Israel is also aware of the international pressure it is currently facing, and without the political and military support of the United States, Israel has no guarantee that it will win this war, or it will have to pay a huge price.
→Why doesn't the United States support Israel's retaliation?
The Middle East can be chaotic, and the United States and NATO are relying on war to make a fortune out of other countries' national difficulties, but you can't be too chaotic and can't get out of control, which is not in the national interests of the United States.
On the one hand, the United States is facing an internal election, and Biden will easily be caught by his opponents to attack.
Second, the Russian-Ukrainian war is still in a state of anxiety, which has consumed a lot of manpower, financial and military resources for the entire NATO, and it is too costly and risky to support two large-scale wars at the same time.
Third, the economic situation in the United States is in a mess, and when Mrs. Yellen visited the mainland some time ago, she was thinking about going to Guangzhou to eat more roast goose or going to Beijing to eat roast duck? Obviously, she has a request for the mainland.
Fourth, in the end, the international pressure is too great, in order to support Israel's continuous encroachment on the Palestinian territory and indiscriminate attacks on civilians under the pretext of attacking Hamas, the United Nations subordinates have suffered countless casualties, and the United States has been blamed by most countries in the world and their allies.
If we support Israel in a confrontation with Iran, this pressure can be imagined.
→ if Iran and Israel fight, who will the countries of the Middle East support?
As far as Israel is concerned, Egypt and Jordan have largely been in the driver's seat since the peace agreement with Israel, as evidenced by Jordan's opposition to Iranian drone missile strikes on Israel.
The others are small military countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, which only normalized relations with Israel in 2020, so basically Israel is dancing alone among wolves, and he cannot afford to lose any war.
What's more, there is also a non-Middle Eastern country that is eyeing up, but Turkey, which often considers itself a Middle Eastern power.
Iran, as a traditional Middle Eastern power, has deep cooperative relations with Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and these countries or its domestic armed forces are a headache for the United States and Israel.
For example, Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen wear the same pants as Iran, and in the end, these armed forces can also make Israel and the United States drink a pot.
→如果打起来，最大的变数：土耳其！
Although Turkey is a NATO country, it is also a little brother that causes headaches for the United States, and there is economic and energy cooperation between the two, but there are many different positions and even confrontation on other things.
The most typical example is that the United States supports the Kurdish forces in Syria, but Turkey considers them terrorist forces and has repeatedly crossed the border to attack the Kurdish forces despite the opposition of the United States.
The contradiction between Turkey and Israel is even greater, mainly because Israel attacked the Turkish rescue ship "Mavi Malamara", which led to the almost severance of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel.
Recently, Turkey has maintained a strong posture of condemnation and opposition to Israel's war massacre in the Palestinian Gaza region, and in 2023 it simply listed Israel as a terrorist state and threatened to sever diplomatic relations.
Then the relationship between Turkey and Iran is generally relatively stable, with competition and cooperation, for example, the energy cooperation between the two countries is very close, and there are also energy pipelines. The main competition is that Turkey has always wanted to expand its influence in the Middle East countries, and its Ottoman glory and dreams have always inspired Turkey!
Therefore, if Israel fights with Iran again this time, it may not be possible for Turkey to profit, and although there is US suppression, it is still possible to make small moves behind the scenes, making Israel uncomfortable, and even becoming the biggest variable.
→ Final Words:
Iran, Israel, and the United States, the three countries put on a good show for us, and some people say that there is no winner in the war, but all three say that they have won.
But either way, there are two real winners:
One is the ruling class in Iran, which is the winner. successfully deflected the killing effects of Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy and strengthened its reputation and reputation at home;
It also made Israel and the United States feel strong pressure, and they did not dare to act rashly, especially to warn Israel, if you hit me, I will dare to hit you, and you dare not fight back;
At the same time, Iran's restrained military action has also won praise from the international community, after all, no country is immune to the impact of war.
The second is the people of Iran and Israel, who are also winners. The conflict of war and the injury of weapons will cause the people of the two countries to lose their homes and lives, and the humanitarian disasters and economic losses caused will be incalculable.
Pray, may there be no war in the world!
Bless us, we were born in the great China!
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