Source: CCTV news client
On 15 April 2023, armed clashes broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital, Khartoum, and subsequently spread to other areas. Eleven of the country's 18 states have been plunged into fighting, killing 14,790 people and injuring about 33,000. Today, the war has dragged on for a full year, and there is still no sign of stopping, the situation of separatism and division is becoming more and more serious, the scale and intensity of the conflict are likely to escalate further, and the conflict is developing towards a long-term development.
△ Map of the armed conflict in Sudan. Red is the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled area, yellow is the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)-controlled area, and the other colors are the local armed forces-controlled area
The fighting is stalemate, and many regions are in a state of separation
The capital of Sudan, Khartoum, and its surrounding cities of North Khartoum and Omdurman are the places where Sudan's armed conflict broke out and is also one of the main battlefields. At the outset of the conflict, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) quickly occupied about 70 per cent of the metropolitan area, including strategic locations such as the capital airport, the presidential palace and the central bank. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) controls the remaining 30 per cent of the remaining 30 per cent of its military bases, including the headquarters of the armoured corps and the headquarters of the engineering corps.
As we move into 2024, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have gradually gained an advantage in the fighting in Omdurman, breaking through the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) siege of the Engineer Corps headquarters in mid-February and subsequently taking control of the National Radio and Television Building, which not only connects the previously isolated areas of control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), but also threatens the security of the RSF supply lines. Advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) could break the standoff between the two sides that has been in place for months in the capital area. However, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still controlling large areas in Khartoum and Khartoum North, and the 10 major bridges connecting the three cities in the capital area and the Nile River under the control of each side, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will not be able to turn the tide of the war once and for all.
△ Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, under the shadow of war. (Image source: Internet)
In the Western Darfur region, the other main battlefield of the conflict, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have an absolute advantage. Of the five states under the jurisdiction of the region, with the exception of Northern Darfur, the remaining four are under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Currently, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are advancing towards the city of El Fasher, the capital of Northern Darfur. While holding on, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have taken advantage of their air superiority to frequently launch warplanes to strike the supply lines of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and rear bases, and it will be difficult for the two sides to distinguish between the winners and losers in the short term.
Civilians in Darfur have fled their homes due to armed conflict. (Image source: Internet)
The situation in eastern and northern Sudan is relatively stable and falls under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces. Nationally, the two sides of the conflict are generally evenly matched, and the war is turning into a war of attrition, tug-of-war and protracted war for men, weapons and resources.
Gathering Troops A major war in the central region is imminent
Gezira Governor is located in central Sudan and is known as the "breadbasket" of Sudan due to its developed agriculture. The capital, Wadhmadani, is an important hub of the national road network and the centre of operations for many humanitarian relief agencies in Sudan. In December 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took control of Gezira State, which not only dealt a severe blow to the replenishment of SAF personnel and supplies, but also further expanded the fighting into central and southern Sudan.
Jazira Oblast is known as the "granary" of Sudan, accounting for about half of the country's wheat production. (Image source: Internet)
Since April this year, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has amassed some 40,000 troops and has continued to advance towards Gezira State from the east, west and south, vowing to regain it. Reinforcements from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are also massing up in Gezira Oblast. Skirmishes between the two sides are frequent, and large-scale fighting is expected to break out soon.
△ Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is advancing towards Jezira State. (Image source: Internet)
According to local media analysis, the battle for Gezira State could become a turning point in the armed conflict in Sudan amid a stalemate in the capital area and the Darfur region. The state's geographical location, which connects the east to the west and the north to the south, as well as its large population and abundant resources, will be the key to determining the direction of the conflict.
Divide and take sides, local forces continue to "enter the game"
Sudan has prominent ethnic and racial contradictions, and there have been many turmoils since the 80s of the 20th century. Large-scale armed conflict erupted in 2003 in the western Darfur region, and civil unrest erupted in 2011 in the southern states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. These conflicts have led to the emergence of a number of powerful local armed groups, including the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) operating in Darfur, as well as the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in southern Sudan. These local armed forces are divided into factions and have intricate relationships.
△ The Sudan Liberation Movement, a local armed group in Darfur. (Image source: Internet)
Since the outbreak of armed conflict in Sudan, some local armed groups have split up. While the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Ager faction joined the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), another faction of the group, the Hiru, became hostile to the Sudanese Armed Forces and expelled them from various areas in South Kordofan and Blue Nile States. But since the beginning of this year, as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have advanced into South Kordofan, the Hirupites have turned against the RSF.
Another local armed force, Sudan Shield, joined the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in July 2023. The armed forces claim to have 75,000 troops, and their sphere of influence includes the states of Gezira, White Nile and Qaidharif in central Sudan. This force has now become one of the main forces of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), having defeated the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on several occasions during the fighting.
In Darfur, two local armed groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), have allied with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to fight the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The other three local armed groups, the Sudan Liberation Front, the Sudan Alliance, and the Sudan Liberation Movement Transitional Council, have declared their neutrality and will not support any party to the conflict.
There are also numerous ethnic and racial tribes in the central and western parts of Sudan. Many tribal forces have also joined the fray, supporting both sides of the conflict, further exacerbating social divisions and inter-ethnic hostility and adding to the chaos.
△ Tribal Armed Forces in Western Sudan. (Image source: Internet)
Huge differences Ceasefire negotiations have stalled for a long time
Mediated by Saudi Arabia and other countries, the two sides of the conflict in Sudan have held ceasefire talks in the Saudi Red Sea port city of Jeddah since May 2023. During this period, the two sides reached a number of short-term ceasefire agreements, but none of them were fully respected. In December of the same year, Saudi Arabia and other mediators announced an indefinite suspension of the Jeddah peace talks.
In May 2023, the two sides to the conflict in Sudan held ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. (Photo: Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
At the end of 2023, under the mediation of the Intergovernmental Organization on Development (IGAD) in East Africa, the Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereign Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Al-Burhan, and the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, Dagalo, are scheduled to meet in Djibouti in early 2024 to discuss a ceasefire and advance the political process in Sudan. However, Dagalo then visited some neighboring countries, which caused dissatisfaction with the Sudanese government. The meeting between the two sides was postponed indefinitely.
In February 2024, Prime Minister Abbeiba of the Libyan Government of National Unity (Transitional Government) launched a Sudanese peace initiative that hopes to facilitate face-to-face dialogue between the leaders of both sides of the conflict. Subsequently, Burhan and Dagalo visited Libya separately, but a direct meeting between the two did not materialize.
On 8 March, the Council adopted a resolution urging both parties to the conflict in the Sudan to cease hostilities during the holy month of Ramadan. However, the two sides of the conflict have said their own words on the ceasefire demands, which ultimately led to the resolution becoming a dead letter, and the conflict continues.
Analysts have pointed out that the two sides of the conflict are not very willing to negotiate a cease-fire at present, and both sides hope to gain a certain advantage on the battlefield before resuming peace talks so as to obtain a more favorable situation in the talks. In addition, the two sides have serious differences on core issues such as the withdrawal of troops from major cities, the integration of military forces, and the position of the state in the future power structure, and it will be difficult to make substantive progress even if the talks resume.
Ceasefire negotiations have stalled, and the armed conflict in Sudan continues. (Image source: Internet)
The guns are not cold, and peace is difficult. As the armed conflict in Sudan enters its second year, both sides of the conflict continue to recruit in the hope of a military showdown, with a ceasefire in sight. At the same time, the deep-seated contradictions between the two sides have not been eliminated, military and political struggles coexist, and the road to peace in Sudan is still long and difficult.