China Fund News reporter Yan Jingying, Mo Lin, Zhao Xinyi
Another blockbuster document in the capital market has landed. A few days ago, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market" (hereinafter referred to as the new "National Nine Articles"). After a lapse of 10 years, the State Council once again issued a guiding document on the capital market to boost market confidence.
What are the significance and policy directions of the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles"? What kind of leading role will it play? Where are the follow-up market opportunities? In this regard, the reporter of China Fund News invited six well-known chief economists and chief analysts of securities companies to discuss the blockbuster content and impact of the new "National Nine Articles", they are:
Yang Fan, Chief Macro and Policy Analyst of CITIC Securities, Hu Yuwei, Chief Policy Analyst of China Securities Securities, Fu Jingtao, Chief Analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Strategy, Chen Fu, Chief Analyst of Non-Bank of GF Securities, Wang Yi, Chief Economist of Great Wall Securities, and Yang Chao, Chief Strategy Analyst of Galaxy Securities.
The interviewee said that the new "National Nine Articles" clarified the short-term, medium-term and long-term "three-step" goals for the construction of the capital market, and drew a blueprint and timetable for the high-quality development of the capital market in the future. After the release of the first two "National Nine Measures", the A-share market has ushered in a sharp rise, and the subsequent market performance is worth looking forward to.
The main interview content and the guests' golden sentences are as follows:
Yang Fan, Chief Analyst of Macro and Policy at CITIC Securities: The new "National Nine Measures" in 2024 will focus on the center of Chinese-style modernization, anchor the goal of building a financial power, and focus on answering the questions of how to do a good job in the capital market, improve the quality of listed companies, improve investor returns, and optimize the service capabilities of intermediaries.
Hu Yuwei, chief policy analyst of China Securities Securities: After the first two "national nine articles" were released, the A-share market ushered in a sharp rise, and the "national nine articles" may help the market out of the slow bull.
Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Strategy: High dividends are becoming a trend of thought, and the management's promotion of the construction of the rule of law in the capital market resonates with market preference (large-scale bottom warehouse assets) and corporate governance optimization trend (high-quality governance, high-quality returns, and high-quality mergers and acquisitions), which may be the clues to the next wave of trend.
Chen Fu, Chief Analyst of GF Securities Non-Bank: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) put forward the concept of the "1+N" policy system framework for the first time, making it clear that "1" is the "Opinions" itself, "N" is a number of supporting system rules, and the main line of the "1+N" policy system is to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and promote high-quality development. This is an organic whole that complements each other, and must be promoted as a whole and implemented systematically.
Wang Yi, chief economist of Great Wall Securities: Improving the professional ability of institutions and enhancing the long-term returns of investors is in line with the previous "investor-oriented" requirements, and the focus is to increase the protection of investors' rights and interests. Correspondingly, the fund investment management and sales assessment system should also be reformed in the direction of "long-term".
Yang Chao, chief strategic analyst of Galaxy Securities: The first "national nine articles" focused on promoting the development of the capital market, the second "national nine articles" focused on protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors, and the "national nine articles" focused on strengthening supervision and risk prevention, so as to achieve the transformation of the development paradigm to high quality. 1. The new "National Nine Articles" are of great significance, and strengthening supervision and risk prevention are put in the first placeChina Fund News: Compared with the previous two "National Nine Articles", what are the highlights and profound meanings of the new "National Nine Articles"? Fu Jingtao: Since the turn of the millennium, step by step every decade, the State Council's three "National Nine Articles" for the capital market happen to be based on the background of key development nodes, which are a systematic layout for reform and point to the future direction. Compared with previous documents, this blockbuster document carries a heavier historical task, focusing on clearing up historical issues, standardizing development on this basis, and the significance is closer to the legal construction of "four beams and eight pillars" in 2016.
In fact, with the maturity of the mainland capital market, the necessity of structural adjustment policies has gradually been higher than that of unilateral development policies since 2016, which is determined by the main contradictions at different stages. The 2024 document is entitled "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", and strengthening supervision and risk prevention is the first place. This is a comprehensive thinking and layout of the policy since the weakening of the stock market in 2023 and the amplification of volatility in early 2024, which is intended to promote the resolution of the deep-seated contradictions accumulated in the capital market for a long time.
Yang Fan: The three "National Nine Articles" show the country's understanding of the core issues of the capital market. Compared with the content of the three "National Nine Articles" in 2004, 2014 and 2024, the background of the issuance of the document is similar, and they are all in the stage of macroeconomic growth pressure, tight market liquidity, and market sentiment is still relatively sluggish. However, the specific content has its own emphasis according to the background of the times and the market environment at that time.
In 2004, the core of the "National Nine Articles" was to answer the question of whether to focus on building the capital market and how to build the capital market framework, and promoted a series of institutional construction represented by the reform of equity division. In 2014, the core of the "National Nine Articles" is to answer the question of how to strengthen the capital market, enrich investment categories and introduce social funds, from on-site to off-market, from public to private, from equity to debt, from spot market to derivative market, to promote the construction of multi-level capital market in many aspects, and improve the proportion of direct financing.
In 2024, the new "National Nine Measures" focus on the center of Chinese-style modernization, anchor the goal of building a financial power, and focus on answering the questions of how to do a good job in the capital market, improve the quality of listed companies, improve investor returns, and optimize the service capabilities of intermediaries.
At the same time, the new "National Nine Measures" in 2024 put forward more specific measures for the future development of the capital market in the medium and long term, with two main characteristics: one is political, that is, strengthening the party's overall leadership over the capital market work, serving major national strategies and promoting high-quality economic development, and the other is people's nature, that is, practicing finance for the people and protecting the rights and interests of investors.
As an authoritative statement of official caliber, the "National Nine Articles" is a programmatic document for the reform of the capital market in the next 10 years, which is of great significance in building consensus and strengthening cognition, and has also laid a solid foundation for the arrival of the medium and long-term bull market in the capital market.
Yang Chao: The first "National Nine Measures" focused on promoting the development of the capital market, the second "National Nine Measures" focused on protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors, and this "National Nine Measures" focused on strengthening supervision and preventing risks, so as to achieve the transformation of the development paradigm to high quality.
The new "National Nine Articles" have nine highlights: first, on the overall requirements, involving the "five musts" and overall objectives; second, for unlisted companies, strictly control the issuance and listing access; third, strictly supervise listed companies and enhance the protection of investors' interests; fourth, increase the supervision of delisting, and improve the investor compensation and relief mechanism for delisting; fifth, for securities and fund institutions, strengthen supervision and promote the industry to return to its origins. Sixth, strengthen transaction supervision and enhance the internal stability of the capital market, seventh, promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, eighth, serve high-quality development and promote the development of new productive forces, and ninth, promote the formation of a joint force to promote the high-quality development of the capital market.
Chen Fu: The promulgation of the third "National Nine Measures" marks that the development of the mainland's capital market has entered a new cycle, and draws a blueprint and timetable for the high-quality development of the capital market in the future.
The State Council issued the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", and the expression of the capital market has changed from "reform and opening up and stable development" in 2004 and "healthy development" in 2014 to "high-quality development" this time, and its core ideas and tasks have undergone distinct changes in different eras. The "National Nine Articles" fully reflect the political, people-oriented, goal-oriented and problem-oriented nature of the capital market.
In addition, the "National Nine Articles" comprehensively deepen reform and opening up from the perspectives of doing a good job in five major articles to serve new quality productivity, improve the multi-level capital market system, and coordinate the high-level institutional opening and security of the capital market, so as to better serve the high-quality development of the capital market.
2. Strictly control the capital market "one in and one out" and improve the quality of listed companies through multiple channelsChina Fund News: The new "National Nine Articles" require strict "entry gates" for issuance and listing, strict supervision of listed companies, and increase delisting supervision. Fu Jingtao: On the issuance side, the policy further consolidates the responsibilities of various entities (listed companies, intermediaries, exchanges, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission), clarifies the accountability mechanism, and involves IPOs, spin-offs, refinancing, and other business links, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies from the source. Among them, listed companies are a "key minority", and the policy emphasizes the improvement of listing standards, and emphasizes the "improvement of the evaluation standards for scientific and technological innovation attributes of the Science and Technology Innovation Board" and "the disclosure of dividend policies when listing".
On the listed company side, the policy focuses on restricting shareholding reduction and encouraging dividend buybacks to strengthen the investor-oriented orientation. Multi-faceted restrictions on shareholding reductions: The policy not only strictly regulates key areas (controlling shareholders and actual controllers) of shareholding reductions, but also emphasizes the principle of "substance over form" to expand regulatory coverage. The "ordering the violating entity to repurchase the shares reduced in violation of the regulations and pay the price difference" is strengthened from the level of punishment after the violation.
The policy emphasizes "promoting multiple dividends, pre-dividends, and dividends before the Spring Festival" and "guiding listed companies to repurchase shares and cancel them in accordance with the law", "encouraging listed companies to focus on their main business, comprehensively using mergers and acquisitions, reorganization, equity incentives, etc. to improve the quality of development", and increasing incentives for high-quality companies;
Yang Fan: Strictly control the "one in and one out" of the capital market, the import side should consolidate the issuer's information disclosure responsibility and the "gatekeeper" responsibility of intermediaries, and the export side should deepen the reform of the delisting system to achieve the survival of the fittest.
For the import side, the new "National Nine Articles" propose to improve the listing standards of the main board and the Growth Enterprise Market, improve the evaluation standards of the scientific and technological innovation attributes of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and formulate post-listing dividend policies before enterprises go public, so as to enhance the ability of listed companies to steadily return investors. At the same time, the new "National Nine Articles" once again emphasize the need to strengthen the responsibility of the whole chain of issuance and listing, such as the establishment of intermediary review and retrospective accountability mechanism and "blacklist" system, and improve the establishment and operation mechanism of the stock listing committee.
For the export side, there are only 16 companies delisted on average every year in mainland China from 2015~2023, with an average annual delisting rate of less than 1%, which is far lower than the overseas level. The new "National Nine Articles" emphasize the need to accelerate the formation of a normalized delisting pattern that should be withdrawn as much as possible and cleared in a timely manner, including improving the differentiated delisting standard system of different sectors, and improving the financial delisting indicators, market value standards and other trading delisting indicators. According to the latest financial and transactional delisting indicators, it is estimated that at least 97 of the listed companies may meet the criteria, with a total scale of 277.37 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of the A-share main board market.
Wang Yi: There are three key points to pay attention to in terms of increasing the supervision of delisting.
The first is to further tighten the criteria for mandatory delisting. Establish and improve the differentiated delisting standard system for different sectors. Scientifically set up the scope of application for major illegal delisting. Tighten financial delisting indicators. Improve market capitalization standards and other trading delisting indicators. Intensify the implementation of standardized delisting.
The second is to further unblock diversified delisting channels. Improve policies and regulations such as absorption and merger, and encourage and guide leading companies to increase the integration of listed companies in the industrial chain based on their main business.
The third is to further reduce the value of "shell" resources. Strengthen the supervision of mergers and acquisitions, strengthen the relevance of the main business, strictly control the quality of injected assets, increase the supervision of "backdoor listing", and accurately crack down on all kinds of illegal "shell" behaviors.
In the future, the regulatory authorities will further deepen the normalized delisting mechanism, further optimize the delisting indicators, and set more precise and hierarchical delisting standards. For companies that have major violations of the law and have no investment value, we should "retreat as much as possible", accelerate the survival of the fittest, and enhance the overall investment value of the stock market.
Yang Chao: On April 12, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Opinions on the Strict Implementation of the Delisting System, which is in line with the relevant provisions of the new "National Nine Articles" on delisting supervision. The Opinions put forward 17 specific measures in five aspects: further tightening the criteria for compulsory delisting, gradually broadening diversified exit channels, vigorously reducing the value of "shell" resources, effectively strengthening regulatory law enforcement, and making greater efforts to implement investor compensation relief, aiming to further deepen the reform of the delisting system and achieve a pattern of orderly advance and retreat and timely clearance.
Among them, in terms of delisting standards, a series of measures such as increasing the delisting situation, raising the delisting index of the operating income of loss-making companies, and improving the delisting index of trading can effectively speed up the liquidation of problematic companies and improve the market survival of the fittest mechanism, which will help improve the overall quality of listed companies and better protect the rights and interests of investors.
3. Vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and public funds are expected to become a key area China Fund News: The new "National Nine Articles" clearly put forward "vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and continue to expand the long-term investment force". Wang Yi: The "Nine Articles of the New People's Republic of China" support the construction of a policy system of "long-term money and long-term investment". Vigorously develop equity public funds, and greatly increase the proportion of equity funds. Establish a fast-track approval channel for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to promote the development of indexed investment. Comprehensively strengthen the investment and research capacity building of fund companies, enrich the types of investable assets and investment portfolios of public funds, and transform from scale-oriented to return-oriented for investors. In addition to public funds, we will optimize the policy environment for equity investment of insurance funds, implement and improve the performance evaluation methods of state-owned insurance companies, and encourage bank wealth management and trust funds to actively participate in the capital market and increase the scale of equity investment.
Improving the professional capabilities of institutions and enhancing the long-term returns of investors are in line with the previous "investor-oriented" requirements, and the focus is still on increasing the protection of investors' rights and interests. Correspondingly, the fund investment management and sales assessment system should also be reformed in the direction of "long-term". Follow-up funds and other institutions may launch more products and services to match the needs of medium and long-term funds, and promote the expansion of social security funds, basic pensions, annuities and other types of pension professional investment managers. It will help to further enhance the core investment and research capabilities of industry institutions and promote the supply-side reform of industry institutions.
Chen Fu: The new "National Nine Measures" vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market from the perspectives of market ecology, public funds, and insurance funds. The mutual fund industry is expected to become a key area for regulators to focus on and vigorously promote development.
On the product side, we vigorously developed equity public funds and greatly increased the proportion of equity funds. On the investment and research side, we have comprehensively strengthened the investment and research capabilities of fund companies, enriched the types of investable assets and investment portfolios of public funds, and transformed from scale-oriented to return-oriented investors.
On the management side, we will steadily reduce the comprehensive rate of the public fund industry, and study and standardize the remuneration system of fund managers. Revise the classification and evaluation system for fund managers, and urge the establishment of rational investment, value investment, and long-term investment concepts.
At the same time, we will take multiple measures to increase the investment of insurance funds in the equity market, implement and improve the performance evaluation methods of state-owned insurance companies, and better encourage long-term equity investment. Improve the regulatory system for equity investment of insurance funds, and optimize the information disclosure requirements of listed insurance companies.
Yang Fan: Previously, the Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated that "we should focus on building modern financial institutions and market systems, dredge the channels for funds to enter the real economy, optimize the financing structure, and better play the role of the capital market hub", giving a positive and clear tone to the function and significance of the capital market. In the future, it is expected that the capital market will continue to improve the inclusiveness of new quality productivity, and enterprises with real potential in line with national industrial policies and strategic development will still receive financial resource support.
In addition, the current proportion of medium and long-term capital holdings in A-shares is less than 6%, which is lower than the level of more than 20% in overseas mature markets. Medium and long-term funds mainly include insurance funds, social security funds and pensions. The new "National Nine Articles" proposes to improve the investment policies of the national social security fund and the basic pension insurance fund, enhance the flexibility of enterprise annuity and personal pension investment, and encourage bank wealth management and trust funds to actively participate in the capital market, which will help enhance the internal stability of the capital market.
Hu Yuwei: The new "National Nine Articles" make it clear that it is necessary to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and the social security fund, basic pension insurance fund, enterprise annuity, personal pension, bank wealth management, trust funds and other incremental funds into the market, and the products to undertake are equity funds, including active equity and passive equity.
In addition, the new "National Nine Articles" point out that "the establishment of a fast approval channel for exchange-traded open-ended index funds (ETFs) to promote the development of indexed investment", therefore, accelerating the entry and scale growth of passive equity funds is one of the possible policy intentions, and is also in line with the usual investment preferences of long-term large-scale funds.
Fourth, it is expected to help the market out of the slow bull focus on high-dividend investment opportunities China Fund News: After the announcement of the new "National Nine Articles", the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have also issued relevant supporting policy documents to jointly form a "1+N" policy system. Chen Fu: For the first time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) put forward the concept of the "1+N" policy system framework, making it clear that "1" is the "Opinions" itself, "N" is a number of supporting system rules, and the main line of the "1+N" policy system is to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and promote high-quality development. This is an organic whole that complements each other, and must be promoted as a whole and implemented systematically.
For the first time, the "1+N" policy system of integrated promotion and systematic implementation was clarified, and strong supervision measures were quickly implemented. At the entrance end, the financial indicators of the main board and ChiNext enterprises have been moderately improved, and higher requirements have been put forward for the attributes of the science and technology innovation board. On the export side, strict mandatory delisting standards, smooth diversified delisting channels, strengthen mergers and acquisitions supervision, and reduce the value of "shell" resources to promote the ecological optimization of the capital market. The financing side has solidified the punishment measures for illegal shareholding reduction, the investment side has optimized the supervision of programmatic transactions, clarified that domestic and foreign capital are treated equally, and the exchange has clarified the identification standards for high-frequency trading and can implement differentiated fees, so as to effectively maintain a fair, open and just market order and boost market confidence through a multi-pronged approach.
Hu Yuwei: Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an exclusive interview that the new "National Nine Articles" adhere to systematic thinking, combination of near and far, and comprehensive policies, and work with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to organize and implement implementation arrangements with relevant parties, which will jointly form a "1+N" policy system.
At present, the field represented by "N" will continue to expand, and at this stage, it mainly focuses on delisting supervision, issuance supervision, listed company supervision, securities company supervision, transaction supervision, listing review, major asset restructuring review, shareholders, directors, supervisors and senior executives to reduce their shareholdings, etc., highlighting "strong capital and strong foundation" and "strict supervision and strict management". There are 6 policies for the CSRC to solicit opinions, and 19 systems for the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges to solicit opinions at the same time, with a total of 25 policies.
China Fund News: Combined with the market performance after the implementation of the first two "National Nine Measures", what impact do you think the new "National Nine Measures" will have on the subsequent market trend? Hu Yuwei: After the release of the first two "National Nine Measures", the A-share market has ushered in a sharp rise, and this "National Nine Measures" may help the market out of the slow bull.
In 2004, the trading day after the release of the "National Nine Articles", the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 2.08% and 1.56% respectively. In 2005, a series of reform documents were released one after another, which relayed the upward trend of A-shares. In October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 6,092.06, the Shenzhen Component Index rose to 19,358.44 points, non-ferrous metals and other blue-chip stocks took the lead in rising, and the banking and real estate sectors performed one after another.
In 2014, a year after the release of the "National Nine Articles", A-shares once again came out of the big bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 3,000 points, reaching a maximum of 5,166.35 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index touched 18,098.27 points, with outstanding performance in computer, media, communications and other industries.
Fu Jingtao: The change of supervision is not only a reflection and correction of historical experience and summary, but also a guide to the direction of new trends in the future. The regulatory thinking has changed from "building systems, non-intervention, and zero tolerance" to "strengthening supervision, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development". High dividends are becoming a trend of thought, and the management's promotion of the rule of law in the capital market resonates with market preference (large-scale bottom warehouse assets) and corporate governance optimization trends (high-quality governance, high-quality returns, and high-quality mergers and acquisitions), which may be the clues to the next wave of trends.
In addition, the extension growth of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in 2024 may be an important highlight of the strengthening of China Special Valuation. Technology companies break through key technical bottlenecks through mergers and acquisitions, and the normal elasticity of extension is also the source of new growth points at the end of the "dumbbell strategy" technology growth.
Wang Yi: After the first two "National Nine Measures" were introduced, from the perspective of medium and long-term perspectives, the performance of the broad market index was relatively good. Compared with the previous two times, the new "Nine Articles" are more stringent, involve a wider range of aspects, and have more detailed provisions, emphasizing the "consistency of macro policy orientation", and the subsequent supervision of the capital market may pay more attention to inter-departmental coordination, rather than being limited to the scope of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In the future, the system and detailed rules will continue to be improved in terms of raising listing standards, giving full play to the role of securities funds, optimizing dividends, standardizing shareholding reductions, strictly forcing delisting standards, cracking down on violations, and introducing medium and long-term funds. The investability and rate of return of the capital market are expected to improve in the long run.
It is recommended to pay attention to potential investment opportunities: First, a high dividend/bonus strategy with stable returns, in which the productivity of some state-owned manufacturing enterprises that are actively reducing non-performing assets and loan amounts is improving, focusing on investment opportunities in terms of continuous and stable dividends, buybacks and holdings, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring expectations. Second, in combination with the policy promotion of "new quality productivity", we should pay attention to the subdivisions of AI, advanced manufacturing, and medicine and biology with long-term prosperity. Third, it is expected to benefit from the "better and stronger" securities and fund institutions, as well as the leading financial enterprises that benefit from the long-term reform of the capital market.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Xu Wen