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【Abstract】Huajin Securities: The new "National Nine Articles" are expected to boost the market, Dongfanghong Asset Management: three major risks to pay attention to in the second quarter, and Yongying Fund: gold prices may still have room to rise.
1. Macroeconomics
1. Huajin Securities: The new "National Nine Articles" are expected to boost the market
Deng Lijun of Huajin Securities said that the impact of the "National Nine Articles" on the A-share market is positive. Looking back at history, after the release of the "National Nine Articles" in 2004 and 2014, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose within 1st, 5th, and 30th days. The "National Nine Measures" may improve the expectation of profitability and liquidity easing at the molecular end, and enhance market risk appetite. Top-performing stocks in technology growth, high dividends, state-owned enterprise reform, sub-new, brokerages, etc. may benefit.
2. Dongfanghong Asset Management: There are three major risks to pay attention to in the second quarter
Dongfanghong Asset Management pointed out that there are three major risks to pay attention to in the second quarter, first, the tight monetary policy of the United States and Japan, which will lead to a tightening of global liquidity, which may cause market turmoil. Second, if the property woes persist in 2024, there could be an impact on financial market risks, especially for banks and financial institutions that are highly reliant on real estate mortgages. Finally, the instability of the U.S.-China relationship has suppressed risk appetite.
3. Win Win Fund: Gold prices may still have room to rise
Liu Tingyu of Yongying Fund believes that gold prices may still have room to rise, and from the perspective of hedging attributes, gold has many phased opportunities. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury interest rates are still relatively high, and as the negative impact of the high interest rate environment on the U.S. economy gradually emerges and the Federal Reserve enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury interest rates turn downward or bring about a major upward wave in the gold market.
Second, the equity market
1. Penghua Fund: Optimistic about the small-capitalization style and technology growth style
Su Junjie of Penghua Fund said that benefiting from the improvement of market risk appetite, the small market capitalization style and the growth direction of technology are still currently underestimated, and the market risk appetite represented by leveraged funds has been repaired to a certain extent, but the overall repair process is still in the process and is expected to continue in the future. At the same time, most indices have not yet recovered after the liquidity shock.
2. Dacheng Fund: Hold on to assets with strong certainty
Han Chuang, Dacheng Fund, said that in the past two years, he has been reducing his holdings and allocating his so-called "hard assets", mainly to supply constrained resource goods, become an advantageous manufacturing industry, and optional consumer goods with product differentiation. Looking ahead, we will still stick to this direction, mainly based on the uncertain environment, and we need to hold on to assets with strong certainty.
3. BOCOM Fund: Focus on the opportunities brought about by shareholder returns and irrational market adjustments
Yang Jinjin of Bank of Communications Fund believes that future investment opportunities are mainly divided into two categories: the first type focuses on "shareholder returns". Now that the scope of high growth is getting narrower and narrower, from the perspective of foreign experience, industries with stable demand and stable pattern are likely to achieve continuous improvement of shareholder returns by increasing shareholder returns.
The second focuses on the opportunities presented by irrational adjustments. In the irrational decline at the beginning of the year, some companies with long-term growth space and strong enough competitiveness were mistakenly killed to a lower valuation and position level, which is very similar to the small-cap stocks seen at the beginning of 2021, the difference is that the growth expectations of companies in different economic environments are different, so we need to invest more time to judge the differentiation.
3. Fixed income market
1. Invesco Great Wall: Short-term adjustment may be a better opportunity to increase positions
Invesco Great Wall Fund pointed out in the second quarter economic outlook and investment strategy report that the second quarter is more of a period of implementation of the previous policy and a continuous verification period of economic repair, we expect the fundamentals to continue to repair moderately, the upward repair elasticity will not be too large, in the context of structural overcapacity, prices will remain weak for a long time, is still conducive to the downward trend of interest rates. However, the supply pressure of interest rate bonds in the second quarter is greater, and the supply and demand perspective may be headwinds against interest rates, and it is not ruled out that there will be relatively large fluctuations in the short term, but there is still a shortage of assets and a large number of underallocated funds, and short-term adjustments may be better opportunities to increase positions.
2. Harvest Fund: The supply of credit bonds has shrunk, and the response to negative public opinion has been blunted
Harvest Fund said that the credit bond market is still continuing, and under the debt swap framework, policies restrict the incremental financing of the platform. The supply of credit bonds continued to shrink, and the market was dulled by negative public opinion. Interest rate bonds are in a state of anxiety, and the market has an obvious profit-taking mentality at the previous low, but it has entered a relatively balanced position after full adjustment. The curve is flat, the short end is still facing the constraints of stabilizing the exchange rate and air defense, the probability of breaking through the capital center is small, and the time point when the curve is steep is difficult to grasp.
3. CUAM Fund: The shortage of safe assets is still the main logic in 2024
China Universal Asset Management believes that the income uncertainty of the residential sector in 2024 will still exist, and the residential sector may be more inclined to shift from venture capital to safe assets. Judging from the data on the allocation of various types of assets of domestic residents, since the third quarter of 2021, the proportion of real estate allocated by the residential sector has gradually declined, and the proportion of equity financial assets has gradually declined from the first quarter of 2022, while the allocation of fixed income financial assets by the residential sector has increased systematically from the end of 2021.
Fourth, industry research
1. Caitong Fund: optimistic about the development of the domestic computing industry
Jin Zicai of Caitong Fund said that the long-term rapid development trend of domestic AI is inevitable, so when Nvidia withdraws, the remaining computing power gap gives domestic GPU manufacturers a good opportunity to enter the market, and in the process of running in with downstream customers, the upgrade and iteration speed of domestic GPU manufacturers has been improved. In the long run, in terms of GPU supply pattern, domestic GPUs will gradually shorten the gap with the world's leading GPUs such as Nvidia and gain a large share in the domestic market.
2. Baoying Fund: The capital market is rushing, and it is difficult to judge whether it will enter a new cycle
Yang Siliang of Baoying Fund said that in the context of the continuous rise of U.S. stocks, inflationary pressure is still significant. Data from the first two months showed that not only the service sector, but also goods began to contribute positively to inflation. At the same time, the capital market showed signs of front-running, and commodities such as gold and copper were actively traded. However, I do not yet have a clear answer to the question of whether the economy will achieve a soft landing and whether it will enter a new cycle. In this case, we tend to see the situation before adding to resources, so we are relatively cautious for now.
3. Bosera Fund: The high-dividend style is expected to return
Bosera Fund believes that the market will enter the financial report verification period in April, and performance will become the main factor driving the market. Considering that the direction of high prosperity and continuous improvement in performance is still scarce, the increase in dividend ratio ushers in a centralized verification period and the improvement of the dividend transaction structure, the high-dividend style is expected to return, while the technology sector with high trading congestion may face a correction due to the lack of fundamental support. In the industry, non-ferrous metals, coal, machinery, power equipment, medicine, communications, and banks are recommended.
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