A few days ago, the Kachin Independence Army of Myanmar confirmed that its commander, Lieutenant General Kang Lun, had passed away a few days ago, and the cause of death given by the Kachin side was chronic liver disease.
[Kachin Army Commander Kang Lean (left) died]
Lieutenant General Khamlon is one of the main leaders of the Kachin Army and has also served as the commander of the NUG Defense Ministry's First Military Region, which refers to a coalition of armed forces including the Allied Army and the Kachin Army, which includes Sagaing Province, Magway Province, Mandalay Province and parts of Shan State. Since last year, when Kang Lon assumed the post of front-line commander of the Kachin Army, the Burmese government can be said to have been defeated one after another, and many military stronghold camps in northern Shan State and Kachin State, such as Hpakant, Thane, and Myitkyina, have "fallen" one after another. Now that Kanglun has died, the Kachin army's combat effectiveness has undoubtedly been greatly reduced.
It is worth mentioning that there are many other speculations about the cause of Conlon's death, believing that Conlon was killed in the conflict. Why is there such speculation, here I have to mention a fake news. Some time ago, fake news about the total annihilation of three battalions of the Kachin Army in the Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) spread all over the Internet.
Conventionally, the number of 3 battalions should be around 1,500 people, and if the PLA really clashes with it, it will be no less than a small-scale battlefield. From a political point of view, although the conflict in Myanmar poses a threat to the security of the mainland border, if China wants to intervene, it will definitely intervene diplomatically first, and only take military action after the interference is useless. From a military point of view, the Kachin army is located in a complex area, with high mountains and dense forests, and it is by no means easy to deal with these 1,500 people cleanly in a short period of time. So in every way, the news is almost 100 percent false. And the reason why everyone is willing to believe it has a lot to do with the Kachin army's own pro-American background.
[Senior Kachin military officials have visited the United States]
Since its early days, the Kachin Army has been closely linked with the United States, most of its ethnic group believe in Christianity, and its writing was also invented by American missionaries. Moreover, the armed forces also have a certain degree of hostility towards the mainland, not only have they kidnapped and extorted personnel from mainland enterprises stationed in Burma, but they have also colluded with certain separatist forces and have undivided thoughts on the mainland, China's Yunnan, Nujiang and other areas. For the Chinese side, the presence of the Kachin army is like a time bomb, and its removal is undoubtedly expected, and it is highly likely that Kanglun, as one of the main leaders of the Kachin army, will die in the conflict.
But whatever the reason for his death, it is undeniable that without Kanglun, the Kachin army will have a big gap in defense. For the Burmese junta, which has been pressed and beaten several times, this is undoubtedly the best opportunity for a counteroffensive.
According to Myanmar Mindi Wu sources, the current Burmese military government is simultaneously massively increasing troops in the direction of Mogok and Mon Mi, and these two towns are located on the main transportation routes leading to Kachin State, and it is obvious that the Burmese military government is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Kachin State, preparing to take advantage of the Kachin Army's weak strength to deal a "fatal blow" to it.
[Min Aung Hlaing's government was exposed to forced conscription on the streets]
However, it should be noted that since the Burmese military government seized power in a coup d'état three years ago, it has been attacked by rebels and civilian forces from all walks of life, resulting in a serious weakening of its troops, especially the confrontation with the Kokang Three Brothers Alliance some time ago, which has exhausted the Burmese government army, and the confrontation with the Kachin army has caused most of its troops to be consumed. For this reason, the Burmese side has recently stepped up the pace of conscription.
In February, the Burmese military junta announced a military service law that would require all men between the ages of 18 and 35 and women between the ages of 18 and 27 to serve at least two years, and professionals under the age of 45, such as doctors, for three years. A spokesman for the junta said about 13 million people in Myanmar were eligible for conscription.
However, judging from the current situation of war in Myanmar, the vast majority of young people in Myanmar are not willing to join the army, and after the military service law, many young people in Myanmar are rushing to leave their homes, and there are at least 400 young people in Myanmar queuing up at the Thai embassy to apply for visas every day. But it is clear that the Burmese junta will not let them go easily. According to local media reports in Myanmar a few days ago, it is common to see local young people being forcibly abducted and sent to the army for training on the streets of Yangon and other cities. Although Min Aung Hlaing's government denied the news, calling it "disinformation", not many people believed it.
[A large number of young people in Myanmar are preparing to flee their hometowns]
But the number of Burmese government forces is growing, whether voluntarily or forced, and according to a spokesman, the first batch of new recruits in Myanmar has already begun training, and the second group arrived at the training camp last week. It is clear that Min Aung Hlaing's government is ready for a "counteroffensive" in Kachin State, but it is also important to understand that given the current situation in Myanmar, the probability of success is not very high:
On the one hand, in the face of the well-trained and battle-hardened Kachin army, these Burmese recruits have a relatively weak sense of combat awareness and combat ability, and it is not easy to smoothly advance the front. On the other hand, in addition to Kanglun, the Kachin army has other leaders in charge, such as the chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization, General Nbanla, and the commander of the Kachin Independence Organization, General Kampan Shuang, etc., which are still a strong opponent for the Burmese government army, which is still loose.
All in all, the chaos in Myanmar is unlikely to improve for a while, and it remains to be seen what the final outcome of this counteroffensive will be.