In 2024, the new energy vehicle industry will usher in the first batch of power batteries to be deinsured, and the mention of battery life anxiety has also surfaced. According to the regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China, passenger car manufacturers have implemented an 8-year or 120,000 km warranty for core components such as batteries and motors since 2016 (whichever arrives first). Now the time for the first batch of new energy vehicles to get out of insurance has arrived.
If the power battery of electric vehicles is attenuated to 80% of the new battery state, it will lose the significance of continuing to act as a power battery for new energy vehicles, and it should be replaced and enter the echelon utilization link. There are two forms of replacement, one is to directly scrap and replace the new car, and the other is to replace the power battery, so which of the two is more cost-effective?
How expensive is a power battery?
Power battery is the soul of new energy vehicles, has been affecting the experience of new energy vehicle consumers, previously charging and battery life, now we have to face up to its cost, life and after-sales.
At present, most of the products on the market are ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are affected by their own material properties, and with the increasing time of use and the increasing mileage, the battery life will slowly decay, even if they rarely drive, or even park there, they cannot avoid the attenuation of the battery.
The lithium battery used in electric vehicles is attenuated to 80% of the new battery after 800 full charges and discharges. The working condition method of electric vehicles using ternary lithium batteries can reach 400 kilometers in actual driving range, and 800 times of full charging and discharging is 320,000 kilometers. Lithium iron phosphate battery cars will only decay to 80% after 2,000 times of complete charging and discharging, and an electric vehicle with a driving range of 500 kilometers will decay to below 80% after driving more than 500,000 kilometers.
Judging from the time limit for mainland consumers to change cars, there are very few who do not change cars after driving 200,000 kilometers. However, there are many consumers who have not changed their cars after eight years. According to the insurance data, more than 19.5 million new energy vehicles with more than 8 years of battery warranty will reach more than 19.5 million in the past two years, and these vehicles not only bring the problem of recycling old power batteries, but also attract attention to the maintenance costs after the battery is out of warranty, and the establishment of new battery life standards. And the high cost of replacing the new battery also needs to be borne by the car owner.
The cost of replacing the battery of new energy vehicles includes the cost of the battery itself, the cost of other consumables required to replace the battery, the cost of manual installation, etc., the cost of the battery pack per kilowatt-hour is about 800 yuan or more, and the cost of the battery generally accounts for about 40%-50% of the cost of the whole vehicle. At present, a pure electric vehicle with a battery capacity of 96.1 kWh will cost about 230,000 yuan (about 2,393 yuan/kWh) if the battery is replaced, a range extender electric vehicle with a battery capacity of 44.5 kWh will cost about 86,000 yuan (about 1,933 yuan/kWh), and a hybrid vehicle with a battery capacity of 30.7 kWh will cost about 59,000 yuan (about 1,921 yuan/kWh).
However, the cost of each car company after installation is different, for example, the price of Xpeng P7 battery replacement is about 8-100,000, Tesla is more expensive, according to different models and different battery capacity, the battery is as high as more than 200,000. Because the cost of replacing the battery is often tens of thousands or even one or two hundred thousand, consumers' preference for pure electric vehicles will also be greatly reduced.
Replace the battery or buy a new car?
Power batteries are the bulk of the cost of new energy vehicles, and it is normal for them to be expensive, but since the second half of 2023, the market quotation of power batteries has dropped from 800 yuan-1000 yuan/kWh to 400 yuan-600 yuan/kWh at the end of the year, and the supplier quotation per watt-hour has dropped to 0.3 yuan-0.4 yuan, and the newly listed new energy vehicles are getting cheaper and cheaper.
During this time, the author also asked a number of electric car owners who have used the car for a few years, and the answer they gave is generally to drive for about 5 years, or the battery is not good, and directly change to a new car, after all, changing the battery is not as affordable as changing a new car. The owner of the second-hand tram who bought Didi said that it was cheap to buy anyway, and since it can be driven, it will save some use and charge it twice a day. The residual value of second-hand trams is low, and it is not a day or two.
Therefore, after the warranty period of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to replace the power battery, or to change the new car depends on the use of the vehicle, if you are a private car, it is a good choice to change a new car, not only the price of the new car is getting lower and lower, the technology is also constantly improving, the intelligent technology configuration experience is richer, and the safety performance is also higher, and the car process is more comfortable and more reassuring than the original pure electric vehicle. If you buy a car for other commercial purposes, the cost of replacing the power battery is lower than buying a new car, and the replacement power battery plan is more worth considering.
Friends who buy a new car do not need to worry about the high price of power batteries in the future, because the price of raw materials for power batteries continues to fall, and the cost of batteries is expected to continue to decline in the future. On the other hand, the technology of car companies is becoming more and more mature, many car companies have launched a lot of battery warranty services, BYD provides a warranty period of 8 years or 150,000 kilometers, and promises that during the warranty period, if the battery capacity drops below 80%, it will be replaced with a new or equivalent performance battery free of charge. Tesla also provides a warranty period of 8 years or 120,000 miles (about 193,000 kilometers), and NIO provides a lifetime warranty period, and promises that at any time, if the battery capacity drops below 75%, it will be replaced with a new or equivalent performance battery for free, etc., these service policies can provide more protection for car life.
The people evaluate the car
A car has taken 8 years, whether it is a new energy vehicle or not, you can consider replacing it, after all, the technology of this vehicle is backward, the safety is relatively low, and the functional configuration experience is relatively poor. At present, the sales scale of new energy vehicles is expanding, the price of raw materials is also declining, and the price of batteries is also declining year by year. At this time, if you pay out of pocket to buy a power battery, it is better to buy a new car directly.
After buying a new car, you don't need to worry too much about the cost of car maintenance. In a few years, the price of batteries will not be higher than now, so it is unscientific to use the current price of batteries to speculate on the cost of replacing batteries in a few years.