NEWS
In recent years, the global potash market has experienced several major disruptions, with supply and demand affected to varying degrees, and prices fluctuating, which in turn affect farmers' tolerance for potash and crop yields, which is related to food security. On April 11, at the 16th annual meeting of the potash and potash industry, Alzbeta Klein, Secretary General of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), and Zhou Yue, Executive Deputy Secretary General of the Potash and Potash Industry Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, respectively analyzed the international and domestic potash market trends.
Ye Lijun, Secretary General of China Inorganic Salt Industry Association
The meeting was presided over by Ye Lijun, Secretary General of China Inorganic Salt Industry Association.
Alzbeta Klein, Secretary General of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA).
"There were previous fears that up to 10 million tonnes of potash supply could be affected by sanctions, but only about 5 million tonnes were ultimately affected compared to the historical average. Alzbeta Klein noted that global potash supply in 2023 was much better than expected. On the one hand, Belarus has found new export routes to replace sanctioned Lithuania for exports from Baltic ports, and on the other hand, the actual effect of EU sanctions against Russia has been significantly reduced by a change in the ownership of companies and a series of clarifications and exemptions from sanctions for food and fertilizer products. In addition, higher potash production from new mines in Laos is also an important factor in the higher-than-expected global potash supply in 2023.
It is worth noting that the main buyer of Belarusian potash transportation by rail to the East, as well as the main market for Laos' potash exports, is China. Alzbeta Klein mentioned that in addition to China, other markets have also increased potash imports in 2023, such as Brazil, which has set a new record, and Southeast Asia, which has also seen a recovery in potash imports compared to the previous year, driven by demand for palm oil fertilization. "The recovery and growth in potash imports has been driven by a significant increase in farmers' affordability, as the decline in potash prices relative to crop prices has made it more economically viable for farmers to use potash. Alzbeta Klein said.
However, Alzbeta Klein cautioned that although the global potash supply and market import demand have improved in 2023, there are still uncertainties in the global supply and demand situation.
On the supply side, the situation in the Middle East has affected the export of potash fertilizers from Israel and Jordan, the two largest potash suppliers. The armed conflict has affected the normal navigation of ships through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and many ships have had to choose alternative routes that detour to southern Africa, resulting in higher freight rates and longer voyages. On the demand side, while fertilizer demand is driven by the current increase in global cereal and soybean acreage and improved agricultural production, El Niño weather may affect growing conditions in different regions, becoming a potential risk to demand levels.
In addition to supply and demand factors, Alzbeta Klein said that macroeconomic factors such as fertilizer subsidy policies and global economic conditions are also important factors affecting the fertilizer market.
All in all, Alzbeta Klein said that the potash market situation is improving in 2024 as the availability and affordability of potash fertilizer have improved significantly, and the global supply and demand relationship for potash fertilizer is expected to be more relaxed in the next two years. Alzbeta Klein believes that China plays a key role in the global potash market.
Zhou Yue, Executive Deputy Secretary-General of the Potash and Potash Industry Branch of China Inorganic Salt Industry Association
At the meeting, Zhou Yue made a forecast for the trend of the potash fertilizer market in 2024. "It is expected that the supply and demand of the potash fertilizer market will remain relatively stable in 2024, and the price will fall further compared with last year. Zhou Yue said that on the supply side, the domestic production guarantee support, the loose import environment, and the high level of domestic inventories make the supply expectation relatively loose; In terms of prices, the prices during the spring ploughing period have declined significantly, and the later focus is on the large potash contract, and the price center is predicted to move down compared with 2023; Internationally, the impact of the current geopolitical conflict on the supply of potash fertilizer in the mainland is gradually weakening, but there are still many uncertainties, and the international environment is generally improving.
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Please indicate in the following format for reprinting: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Chen Xinrui Editor: Chen Ran Review: Chen Guoxing Producer: Wu Junsheng