"Australia cries to death" alliance, the United States has a big use!
U.S. President Joe Biden made it clear in a phone call to the Chinese head of state a few days ago: "The U.S. side does not seek to engage in a 'new Cold War', does not seek to change China's system, does not seek to oppose China by strengthening alliances, does not support 'Taiwan independence', and has no intention of clashing with China." ”
May I ask my comrades-in-arms, do you believe this? I believe that 99.99% of people will not believe it. Does the United States itself believe it? Of course, the United States itself does not believe it. Then why does Biden have to say this? There are two purposes: one is strategic deception, China resolutely opposes the "new Cold War," so he wants to deceive China, and the other is that he wants to stabilize China and does not want the current intensification of contradictions between China and the United States to trigger a world war. If China doesn't believe it, why should it listen to him? Because China doesn't want to intensify the contradictions now, and China also wants to repay the other in the same way, and China also needs time and space, because time is on China's side.
Therefore, in the situation where the contradictions between China and the United States in their strategic line have become irreconcilable, it is impossible for each side to change for the time being, and neither side wants to fight, this method is the only way to drag each other out of time to see who can outperform the opponent in the time that is won in the future.
As we all know, after the four-nation mechanism of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, the United States has created another "Aukus" alliance, which is homophonically referred to as "Australia crying to death". As early as 2006, during the George W. Bush administration, the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raised the possibility of a quadrilateral mechanism between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, and the following year, then-US Vice President Dick Cheney visited Japan and agreed to hold consultations on the establishment of a "quadrilateral mechanism." However, before this mechanism began, the United States changed the president of the Democratic Party, and after Obama took office, he promoted the "Asia-Pacific rebalance" strategy, and the so-called "four-nation mechanism" was suspended. After the Republican Trump took office in 2017, he adjusted the Obama-era Asia-Pacific rebalance strategy and began to promote the "Indo-Pacific strategy", so he started the "Quad mechanism".
However, Trump was defeated by the new crown after only one term, so he only held two foreign ministers' meetings in New York in September 2019 and October 2020 in Tokyo during his tenure. In 2020, the United States also used anti-epidemic cooperation to bring in South Korea, New Zealand, and Vietnam to hold more than a dozen "quadrilateral mechanism +" video conferences at the vice foreign minister-level level, but the results were not good, and then they were gone.
Biden took office in January 2021, held the first US-Japan-India-Australia summit in Washington in September of the same year, and held another four-nation summit in May 2022, but in 2023, Biden directly canceled Australia's four-nation summit trip, and the US-Japan-India-Australia four-nation mechanism also fell into a state of paralysis of uncertainty. According to the current situation, there is a high probability that the mechanism will not be restarted in 2024.
There are two reasons why Biden does not want to engage in the four-nation mechanism: first, the mechanism is run by the Republican Party, and the Biden administration of the Democratic Party is not interested in it in the first place; second, Biden has found a new platform - the "Aukus" alliance. On the evening of September 15, 2021 local time, U.S. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison issued a joint statement, saying that they hoped to reach closer cooperation in national defense and security, and announced the establishment of the AUKUS alliance. Australia will build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with the help of technology from the United States and the United Kingdom.
I remember that Zhan Hao analyzed for the first time at that time that the essence of this so-called "Aukus" alliance is a springboard for NATO to move towards the Asia-Pacific region, or a fulcrum for the United States to build an Asia-Pacific NATO. Note that the Aukus alliance is the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, and two of the three countries are NATO core countries. Therefore, the United States has a very clear purpose, which is to use this springboard to build NATO's fulcrum in the Asia-Pacific region.
Some people may have said, so why not use the "US-Japan-India-Australia Quad Mechanism"? The reason is very simple, because three of the "US-Japan-India-Australia Quad Mechanism" are not NATO countries, and in addition, India among these four countries does not listen to the United States very much, so at least in the short term, the four-nation alliance of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia cannot become NATO's fulcrum in the Asia-Pacific region. The fulcrum of the United States is established, so what does he want to do next?
The United States is laying out a new Cold War, and these three countries are confirmed targets!
The United States wants to draw NATO into the Asia-Pacific region with the aim of using NATO's strength to confront China and Russia at the same time, thus creating a new Cold War pattern. Therefore, when the United States builds the "Aukus" alliance, it will inevitably further attract more Asia-Pacific countries to join it. So, who will be his target?
Obviously, there are three main countries at this stage: Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. Of the three countries, Japan is the least resistant, and as long as the United States calls for Japan, it will inevitably join. South Korea had resistance during the Moon Jae-in era, and even the mechanism of the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea was suspended during the Moon Jae-in period. This was even more true in the Philippines during the Duterte era, which was very rejecting the co-optation of the United States.
To that end, the United States has begun to prop up its own people to power in both South Korea and the Philippines. In the end, South Korea supported the pro-American Yoon Suk-yeol to come to power, and the Philippines supported the pro-American Marcos Jr. to come to power. Now that relations between China and South Korea are very poor, and relations between China and the Philippines are even worse, and the Philippines has been determined to continue to provoke China in the South China Sea, and has even dragged the United States, Japan, and Australia to conduct the first four-nation military exercise in the South China Sea. Not only that, Marcos Jr. also vigorously promoted the maximization of military cooperation among the four countries.
At the same time, we have seen another piece of news that the United States is pushing for the inclusion of Japan in the "Aukus" alliance, and Japan has expressed a positive stance on this. Not only that, but the United States is also pushing South Korea to join the "Aukus" alliance as well. So, let's imagine if Japan and South Korea all joined the "Aukus" alliance, how would the Philippines choose? At least the Marcos Jr. administration is expected to frantically pounce into the arms of the United States.
As we all know, the trilateral alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea is called a "mini-NATO", mainly to deal with China, and secondarily to deal with Russia. Now, if the "AUKUS" alliance includes Japan, the ROK, and the Philippines, will a "mini-NATO" based on the Asia-Pacific region be formed? If a small Asia-Pacific NATO is formed, and the United States pulls in NATO and unites the Asia-Pacific "mini-NATO" with NATO, as long as it creates confrontation between China and Europe, a "new Cold War" pattern will be formed.
Therefore, although Biden has repeatedly claimed that he is not confrontational and does not want to "new Cold War", we can clearly see that all his actions are towards a "new Cold War". If Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines all join the "Aukus" alliance, and China and Europe are also pitted against each other, the United States will inevitably provoke a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and then try to drag China into a war and contain China as it did Russia.
So, we can't help but ask, how do we break this state? That is, when it's time to make a move! How to make a move? Please continue to look back!
When China shoots, it must play four cards!
If China wants to hedge against the United States in engaging in a "new Cold War", it is no longer enough for us to simply ease relations with Europe. Because we can't guarantee that Europe will not follow the United States in the end, we are not sure about that. In the confrontation between major powers, we must consider the most disadvantageous, so we must have other strategies to deal with it. In Zhan Hao's view, China's four cards must be played, and they must continue to evolve with the situation.
The first card: Russia and Ukraine
Russia is now gradually seizing the initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the United States and NATO have fallen into the quagmire of war. Under such circumstances, if we want stability in the Taiwan Strait, and if NATO has no time to take care of the Asia-Pacific region, we must let Russia put enough pressure on the United States and NATO. Ukraine is where Russia is pressuring.
As far as China is concerned, there is no need to give military assistance to Russia for the time being, as long as Sino-Russian economic cooperation is sufficient, Russia has the ability to create enough trouble for the United States and NATO, and ultimately NATO will not be able to reach the Asia-Pacific region. Do you still remember? During the meeting between the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers two days ago, Director Wang Yi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that NATO will not be allowed to set foot in the Asia-Pacific region. China does not allow it, and if China and Russia need strategic cooperation, they need Russia's contribution, and won't cooperation come into being? China only needs to increase economic cooperation with Russia. This is the first card we have to play.
Second card: Middle East card
The Middle East card is mainly the Palestinian-Israeli card, and China is playing very well now. At the same time, it is the card of the entire Middle East region, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries in the Middle East. As long as the pressure on the Middle East is strong enough, the United States will not be able to exert its strength in the Asia-Pacific region at all. Therefore, it is impossible for the United States to withdraw from the Middle East, and China will go all out to promote the establishment of Palestinian statehood.
As long as China plays the Middle East card well, the United States will not want to extricate itself from the Middle East, and the situation will continue to advance towards the "two-state" solution. China must not allow the United States to withdraw from the Middle East, and we need to think about it, because there are some costs that can be paid.
Third card: South China Sea Philippine card
China does not want to be hot spots around China, so it is tolerant enough of the Philippines in the South China Sea. However, it is not permissible for the Philippines to involve the United States, Japan, and Australia in conducting military exercises against China. It is against this backdrop that China has dispatched warships and aircraft to counter the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines military exercises. Compared with the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, China's warships and aircraft are much more powerful. It is precisely on this basis that the Southern Theater of Operations has made it clear that everything is in my mine.
When China really wanted to play the Philippine card in the South China Sea, China's "planting island" construction team appeared. So it's no surprise that China will take action in the South China Sea in the near future, because there will always be a need for strength to go up. Of course, if anyone dares to provoke China in this process, then China will not be polite. However, the Philippines does not have the ability to do so, so no one can do anything about China's "planting islands", and China has also explained to other ASEAN countries, because what China has done has done its best.
Fourth card: Korean Peninsula card
What should we do if we really come to the brink of a new Cold War? Then to give the United States some good-looking, we need to really start from a position of strength and tell the United States that it can't do it. How can we tell the United States that it can't do it from a position of strength? Leave this matter to Commander-in-Chief Kim! North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un has already been gearing up and is waiting for the time to give an order. For North Korea, the pattern dictates that it is simply impossible to break through the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council in normal ways and methods. If the contradictions between China and the United States are really irreconcilable, then the opportunity will come, and the DPRK will play the role of the vanguard to unify South Korea, then the United States will have to fight a proxy war on the peninsula. Fighting a proxy war for Chinese control around China, the United States will lose badly.
Therefore, when it really comes to that point, China will inevitably make a fuss about the Korean Peninsula and thwart the process of the United States pulling NATO into the Asia-Pacific region. If the United States wants to pull Japan together in this war, then China will completely wipe out the power of the United States, Japan, and South Korea in the first island chain. For China, it is much better to confront the United States directly than to face the West as a whole.
In the face of the United States pressing forward step by step, we do not have no cards, but we have cards, but we are playing steadily! If the United States does not stress morality and reasoning, of course you and China will not talk about it. There is not much room left for the United States, and if you want to deceive China, you will inevitably be slapped in the face!