On 10 and 11 April, the US-Japan summit and the US-Japan-Philippines summit were held in Washington, D.C. Recently, a series of intensive actions by Japan and the Philippines have aroused concern about the security order in Asia.
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On April 8, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida set off for a visit to the United States, which was a formal invitation to him previously issued by the US government. According to the schedule, Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden held an official meeting in Washington on April 10 and delivered a speech at a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives on the 11th, which was the first time in nine years that a Japanese prime minister visited the United States as a state guest.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
"This is a summit held at a time when both the United States and Japan have domestic and foreign needs, first of all, the United States is facing a fierce domestic election, and Fumio Kishida is currently considering whether he can be re-elected as president of the Liberal Democratic Party this year because of the continuous decline in public opinion such as "black gold politics". Both sides have the will to make diplomacy serve their domestic political needs. ”
This is the fifth time in Japan's constitutional history that a prime minister has visited the United States as a state guest. The so-called "state guest" is the highest level of welcome in the diplomatic scene of the two countries. In the past, the visits of Japanese prime ministers to the United States as state guests had an important impact on US-Japan relations and the entire East Asian pattern. This time, Kishida also continued the usual practice.
On the evening of the 8th local time in the United States, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in the suburbs of Washington, the capital of the United States.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
"After Kishida and his wife arrived in the United States, the occasion for the pick-up was relatively deserted. In addition, in general, evening dresses with a black bow tie should be worn to the dinner party. But President Biden wears an ordinary suit and tie, which is generally used for funerals in Japan, and this discord has not been seen before. ”
In response to the invitation of the U.S. state guest, in the selection of national gifts, the Kishida team is preparing to present the Noto Peninsula's specialty lacquerware "Wajima Tu" to the U.S. government, hoping to show the world the level of traditional craftsmanship of Japan's national treasure, according to TV Asahi, the Prime Minister's Office also decided to give the U.S. government cherry blossom saplings, which is intended to review the friendly relations between the United States and Japan.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
"I think Kishida has two intentions, one is to show that he attaches great importance to Japan-US relations, to further strengthen the military arrangements between the United States and Japan with the Biden administration, and at the same time, I hope that the United States will recognize Kishida's national security strategy and military expansion plans so far. Second, because the United States is holding a presidential election, he wants to use this kind of public diplomacy technique to win the favor of American politicians and voters toward Japan. ”
Both the United States and Japan have high expectations for this visit. Earlier, the White House said in a statement that the United States and Japan will discuss further strengthening political, security, and economic ties between the two countries. On April 10, local time, Kishida and Biden reached a consensus during the talks on upgrading the two countries from "allies" to "global partners", which is the "largest upgrade" since the alliance between Japan and the United States was established.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
This is not the first time the term has been used, and in the case of the global partnership between Japan and the United States, they have actually been referring to it since the end of the Cold War. It is now being raised again to a large extent as a global strategic consideration of the United States, because it has now aroused doubts about US policy in many countries and even the American public in Europe and the Middle East, so it needs to further stabilize its dominant position in the world while maintaining its so-called "liberal and democratic" image. In this case, it needs more support, and the most important in East Asia is Japan. ”
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On the day of the meeting, Fumio Kishida and Biden agreed on a major update to the US-Japan Security Treaty, the most concerning of which was the announcement of the reorganization of the US military command in Japan to strengthen operational planning and exercises between the two countries. The move has been described as the largest military escalation between the two countries since the signing of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty in 1960.
At present, the US military stationed in Japan is the largest force among the US troops stationed overseas, with a total strength of about 58,000 troops, and is composed of the First Army of the Army, the Seventh Fleet of the Navy, the Fifth Air Force of the Air Force, and the Third Marine Expeditionary Force. According to a previous report by Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun", after the adjustment and upgrade of the "US-Japan Security Treaty", the authority of the US military command in Japan will be strengthened to deal with future regional conflicts.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"The United States and Japan have undergone a major change in their own strategy. They believe that by seeking a joint command and operation system such as the command structure, base layout, and tactical concepts of the two countries, including weapons systems, the US-Japan security alliance will be built into a stronger military alliance politically and militarily, and the common strategic interests of the two countries in this regard will be safeguarded. ”
Since coming to power in October 2021, the seemingly literate Japanese prime minister has been even crazier than Abe in strengthening Japan's military power, not only directly ordering the purchase of American "Tomahawk" missiles, but also improving Japan's domestic short-range missiles and comprehensively developing long-range attack capabilities, and also approved the export of Japanese-made fighter jets overseas for the first time through a cabinet resolution. In the fiscal year 2024 budget that was recently passed, Japan raised its defense budget to about 8 trillion yen, a significant increase of about 16.6% from 2023 and a record high. These actions are in line with the Biden administration's desire for Japan to play a greater role in international affairs.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"The United States hopes that Japan, an important Asian ally, will play the role of an ally in the current complex and volatile regional and global security context and assist the United States in better maintaining its security interests and hegemony in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region under the United States. ”
There are also media analysis that Kishida's visit to the United States also has an important relationship with the uncertain U.S. election, and the competition between the current U.S. President Biden and former President Trump is becoming increasingly fierce, and Japan has to prepare early for Japan, which is highly dependent on U.S. relations.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
"Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States is a two-sided consideration for the U.S. election, on the one hand, to strengthen his personal friendship with the current President Biden. He also maintains close communication with Trump's team privately through the U.S. Embassy in Japan. The Japanese manufacturer in North Carolina that he inspected this time is a cooperation project reached with the United States during Shinzo Abe's last visit to the United States. Therefore, in this sense, Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States is also a source of left and right, hoping to continue to consolidate the relationship between Japan and the United States. ”
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In addition to the desire to upgrade the U.S.-Japan alliance, another issue of particular concern at the U.S.-Japan summit is whether Japan will join the AUKUS alliance. Not long ago, the United States, Britain and Australia said that they would consider cooperating with Japan on AUKUS technology, which was interpreted by the media as a signal from the alliance to expand Japan's membership.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"On the one hand, there is the strategic traction and promotion of the United States, and in addition, Australia and the United Kingdom are also willing to expand their members. In their eyes, Japan is a natural partner with shared democratic values. Moreover, Japan still has a lot of advanced technology reserves in hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence, and they also hope that Japan's participation will improve AUKUS's ability to maintain security. ”
On the afternoon of April 11, local time, Biden, Fumio Kishida, and Marcos attended the trilateral summit meeting between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines held at the White House, which was the first "U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Leaders' Summit" and a continuation of the U.S. multilateral alliance system in the "Indo-Pacific direction" after the trilateral summit of the United States, Japan and South Korea held at Camp David last year. In a statement, the White House said it would "reaffirm the strong alliance between the United States and Japan and the Philippines," and the leaders of the three countries would discuss "trilateral cooperation on issues including economic growth and emerging technologies to promote peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world." However, some media said that the strategic cooperation between the three countries in military affairs is the core topic of the trilateral summit in Washington.
Liu Jiangyong, Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University:
"The United States is thinking about global strategy and asking Japan to share more strategic and military security responsibilities in East Asia. Japan hopes to use the Japan-US alliance, along with some so-called "like-minded" countries, to create a larger global security system that can counterbalance China. At the same time, Japan also hopes to break through the restrictions of the Japanese Constitution in the process and no longer be constrained by the United States, so as to strengthen its armaments. The Philippines is mainly concerned that it can hedge against China in the South China Sea with the backing of the United States and Japan. Each of them has its own goals, but from the current overall point of view, their strategic orientation and spearhead are very clear, that is, China. ”
Starting in 2023, the Biden administration will continue to strengthen its pull and woo the Philippines, and make this the top priority of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". The current tightening of trilateral relations between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines is an important change in the geopolitical pattern of East Asia over the past year or so. According to some analysts, after the meeting between the leaders of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines, the rudiments of the US-led "Asia-Pacific mini-NATO" will initially appear.
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Some Western media say that the rise of the trilateral small group between the United States, Japan and the Philippines is part of a broader "mini-multilateral" cooperation between the United States and its regional allies. However, compared with other "small trilaterals", the United States, Japan and the Philippines are particularly important.
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"The potential conflict in the South China Sea, which could be triggered by the Philippines behind its back, has become a lever to leverage the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. In the view of the United States, it can form a posture of security control against China in which the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait are linked. At present, the Marcos Jr. administration in the Philippines has a very tough attitude toward China, and it is also in line with the will of the United States, and at this time, after introducing Japan and forming an alliance between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines, it will be able to contain China from a geographical situation. ”
The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, which was previously reported by the media, will conduct joint patrols with the US and Philippine militaries in the South China Sea for the first time this year, which is also the focus of attention of the outside world at this trilateral summit. Japan's Kyodo News Agency said in an article that this is "to strengthen cooperation in the field of maritime security among the three parties, taking into account China's intensified activities in the South China Sea."
Qian Feng, senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank:
"This is the first time that Japan has participated in such a patrol, adding an uncontrollable risk factor to the already tense situation in the South China Sea, and further destabilizing the situation in the entire South China Sea after the United States." ”
As the South China Sea issues heat up recently, the United States and its allies are interested in highlighting solidarity with the Philippines. The Philippines seems to be becoming the new fulcrum of the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy." Just days before the trilateral summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, on April 7, the United States, Japan and the Philippines and Australia held their first official maritime exercises, including anti-submarine warfare training, in the South China Sea off the northwest coast of Palawan Island in the Philippines. The exercise is positioned as the first maritime cooperation activity among the four countries, carrying out anti-submarine warfare, ship communications, and formation navigation training. Japan's Mainichi Shimbun said the joint maritime exercise may be an attempt to "show China the progress of security cooperation among the four countries, including Australia, ahead of the trilateral summit." ”
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"The United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines have all sent relevant military aircraft and warships to conduct military exercises in the South China Sea in the direction of China. Obviously, the Philippines wants to use the military power of the outside world to increase its own capabilities, and to put it bluntly, it is a fox and a fake tiger. ”
In the "Indo-Pacific strategy" of the United States, its focus is to form a clamp on China in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean, whether it is the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan Strait, or the South China Sea, and the United States is forming a broader alliance to contain China in the political, military, and economic fields.
Japan, the Philippines, and other countries have carried out military escalations and organized groups to see that Asia is becoming more and more "NATO" in front of us, with small alliances and arms races occurring one after another. The U.S. strategy of stepping up Indo-Pacific operations is to stitch together various bilateral alliances into a broader "mini-multilateral" to expand the U.S. influence in Asia.
Producer: He Jining
Choreographer: Gao Yu
Editor: Wang Jinjie